Common Sense Prevails in Dodger Land

Justin Turner-10

Common sense finally prevailed within the Dodger’s front office as the club reportedly put the finishing touches on the 4-year 64 million dollar agreement with third baseman Justin Turner. The completion of Turner’s deal means that the Dodgers have signed all 3 of their top free agents, Kenley Jansen, Rich Hill, and Justin Turner.

This is a huge change of strategy for the Dodger brain trust. Head of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his little side kick GM Farhan Zaidi have never given out contracts this big since they arrived in town back in the winter of 2014. It was considered a long shot for the Dodgers to sign all three of their big free agents this offseason. Some people believed the Dodgers would let all three walk, which would insure that the 2017 club would surely suck.

However Friedman and company showed tons of chutzpah by inking the three players to big deals. Jansen was signed for 5-years and 80 million dollars. Hill received a 3-year 48 million dollar pact. The Turner contract is considered to be very team friendly.

There has been a lot of talk about the Dodger’s payroll and spending habits this winter. That’s actually been the storyline that has dominated the hot stove chat in Los Angeles. Of course the moneyball kids have been crying for the Dodgers to lower payroll for ages. It was originally reported that the Dodgers were in massive debt with major league baseball, the media speculated that the Dodgers had to reduce payroll hoping to stay below the luxury tax to avoid the harsh penalties.

The Dodgers may still get below that luxury tax, but retaining their talent is an extremely prudent move. The stat kids continued to cry and bemoan the team spending. They rationalized that spending money on a closer was a waste, and Turner was expendable. These people cheer when the Dodger’s bottom line goes up. When Mark Walter’s stock goes up a percentage point they celebrate on social media. When the Dodger accounting ledger clears payroll space they become ecstatic. While winning games, hitting home runs and World Series championships excite you and me, market viability and Friedman’s growing bank account’s compound interest gives them their jollies. It seems bizarre to root for executive’s bank accounts instead of your favorite baseball team, but whatever floats your boat I guess.

While the number crunchers and millennials on twitter protect Mark Walter’s wallet, actual Dodger fans like you and I were more worried about the 2017 Dodgers being competitive without their franchise closer and star third baseman. Fortunately logic happened within Andrew Friedman’s office.

I’ve normally been pretty critical of the Dodger front office since Friedman and his gang gangster limped into Dodger Stadium. When they do something right I want to give them praise. This time they did something very good. Even if they don’t do anything else the rest of the offseason, I will still have some new found respect for them after they resigned Kenley, Turner, and Hill.

Now the Dodgers can turn their attention to acquiring a second baseman and a right handed outfield bat. Perhaps they could still use some help in the bullpen with setup man Joe Blanton leaving via free agency. At least we don’t have to watch the best closer in franchise history whose talent can’t be replaced pitching elsewhere. Nor do we have to watch Turner hitting blasts for another club too.

As I have said before, the money the Dodgers spend is not mine or yours. The Dodgers may be in some debt, but we don’t know the particulars. Even if they are, they are still the richest club in MLB. The Dodgers are a huge global brand that makes billions of dollars. Guggenheim closes million dollar deals for lunch, and Mark Walter and his colleagues move billions of dollars in assets around for a living. That’s what these guys do, and I am confident the Dodgers will be able to acquire any player they set their eyes on. No prospects were lost by spending cash, which makes it even better.

I guess the point of this article is to commend the front office for doing the right thing. Now let’s just pray we don’t have to suffer through an entire season of banana man at second base.

Scott Andes

Scott Andes

Scott Andes: Former Co-editor of Lasorda’s Lair. Longtime writer and Dodger fanatic

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155 thoughts on “Common Sense Prevails in Dodger Land

  1. An honest question:

    Has anyone ever seen the “stat kids” the author references on Twitter or any other social and/or digital site?

    1. Bluto

      If you go on almost any other blog, they will fully support Faz there.

      What Scott is talking about, is that all of the followers on those sites, approve of every move the front office makes.

      And they are more into watching the front office’s moves, then just being into the team itself.

      1. No MJ,

        Scott seems to be referencing people who don’t support FAZ, but support the annual financial reports of the Dodgers.

        Case in point:

        >>These people cheer when the Dodger’s bottom line goes up. When Mark Walter’s stock goes up a percentage point they celebrate on social media. When the Dodger accounting ledger clears payroll space they become ecstatic. While winning games, hitting home runs and World Series championships excite you and me, market viability and Friedman’s growing bank account’s compound interest gives them their jollies. It seems bizarre to root for executive’s bank accounts instead of your favorite baseball team, but whatever floats your boat I guess.<<

  2. I too am glad the Dodgers were able to bring all three guys back.

    The team will have a few players that should be take another step up in their ability and a few that will feel their age. For those players that are done at 35 they will have had a career that takes most of us until we are 66 to do.

    I live in the east now and have to wait for it to warm up before I can play golf again so I am now in a hurry for April to get here and for me and the Dodgers to PLAY BALL!!!!!!

  3. Mark is going to love this: Top catchers in 2016 Fielding Runs Above Average per Baseball Prospectus.
    1. +30 Posey
    2. +28 GRANDAL
    3. +17 Castro
    4. +12 Martin
    Also: Just read the Dodgers are now willing to trade JDL as part of a package for Dozier.

      1. Fielding Runs Above Average is Prospectus’ individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.

        The biggest difference between Fielding Runs Above Average and similar defensive metrics comes in the data and philosophy used. Whereas other metrics use zone-based fielding data, Fielding Runs Above Average ignores that data due to the numerous biases present. Fielding Runs Above Average instead focuses on play-by-play data, taking a step back and focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

        Specifically for Catchers:

        FRAA_ADJ = CSAA_RUNS + EPAA_RUNS + TRAA_RUNS + SRAA_RUNS
        = Framing Runs + Blocking Runs + Throwing Runs

        FRAA_ADJ is then added to the “normal” FRAA components, such as fielding ground balls, to generate a total FRAA for the catcher.

        1. 1. Running Game Metrics

          a. Swipe Rate Above Average (SRAA) – the effect of the player on base-stealing success;

          b. Takeoff Rate Above Average (TRAA) – the effect of the player on base-stealing attempts;

          2. Blocking Pitches Metrics

          a. Errant Pitches Above Average (EPAA) – the effect of the player on wild pitches and passed balls;

          3. Framing (AKA “Presenting”) Metrics

          a. Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) – the effect of the player on strikes being called.

  4. You’re better than this, Scott. This post is dripping with contempt for FAZ. Sneering at people who look to maximize revenue and minimize expenses shows a bit of business ignorance and doesn’t reflect well on you.

    I usually enjoy your site though. Cheers.

  5. So, having had time to read all your comments & some of the other sites, IMO, I would pull the trigger on a Dozier/ JDL trade.

    We were good last season (which I was very wrong about – I predicted a 81-81 season) and with our FA signings of Hill, JT & Kenley, we should be at least as good again.
    In fact, having Hill for a whole season is a big plus to last as if he can stay fit, he should provide a proper #2 and therefore more wins.
    However, I’m still not sure that will ultimately be enough to go the final mile. That’s why I think we need an upgrade at 2B and therefore I would do the Dozier deal. He’s a right hander and on an upward curve. It’s only my opinion, but I’m not sure JDL is going to be quite as good as we thought. This might be the time to let him go, while his ceiling is still high. So JDL for Dozier.

    If we really wanted to improve on what we have then I would definitely do the Braun for Puig trade. Obviously it would take more than Puig alone, but if we can swing a deal for Puig and maybe one decent prospect (not Bellinger), then it’s a no brainer for me. Richie has put the case many times for Braun, and I agree.
    The stats he posted yesterday about his lifetime BA against lefties sealed it for me.
    Unless we address our problems against LH pitching we cannot expect an improvement. Braun & Dozier would do that.

    In my mind, you don’t get many opportunities to really have a good run at actually winning a WS, and we have one here, now.
    The team of Hanley, Kemp, Puig, Kenley, Greinke and Kershaw was nearly there. As Badger noted at the time, the Front Office blinked, and the necessary pieces were not added at the Trade Deadline.
    This is an opportunity to really go for it now. Who knows what the future holds? Kershaw’s gimpy back might flare up again. He might opt out? This is the moment & we haven’t got to sell the future as the 3 FA Signings didn’t cost us any prospects, so we will surrender less than we might have.
    Keep Bellinger & Urias but unfortunately the reality is that some other favourite prospects will have to be traded but they are still only prospects at this point.

    I really think that with Corey & Joc a year older, and with JT fit we have a strong core.
    Mark was right about Grandal who is much better than I thought.
    Most of the Pen is intact, and I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing Pancakes back.
    You never know, McCarthy, Ryu or Kazmir might contribute something which would be a bonus.

    I think we are in a great position but should make it stronger.

    BTW – not sure what you are getting at Adam?
    As far as I can see Scott is being positive towards Faz. I’m
    Not seeing any hidden agenda in his post. He has been critical but now giving credit where it is due.
    Roberts now has a year of experience to draw on.

    1. Solid argument for going for it W. But To get both Braun and Dozier is going to cost top prospects.

      Oh well, if we are willing to pay $80 million for 6 WAR with Jansen, might as well keep getting older and go for it next year.

      Braun should hit. But Dozier won’t duplicate last year. Not in LA. He projects at .247/.330/.449. But not in LA. He also projects at 27 home runs. Not in LA. 3 WAR? Maybe.

      I think we’re going to need more better pitching to go with this added hitting. Where’s the 3 WAR starter?

      I will add I don’t trust FAZ to get these trade right. They haven’t exactly impressed in the trade department.

    2. I think I have always been willing to trade De Leon but not unless he gets the return that it seems like the Dodgers always seem like they have to give up when they want a top pitching prospect from another team.

      The Dodgers really do need to reduce their payroll because the CBA both has money fines as well as roster building penalties for teams whose payrolls are over something like $195,000,000.

      I think the Dodgers only need one more righty bat. McCutchin in LF might wind up being that bat with ChrisTaylor or Kike’ at second base.

      Would love to include Ethier along with some combination of Toles, Thompson, Verdugo, De Leon McCarthy for McCutchin.

      1. Bum

        I agree we don’t need two bats!

        If we get Braun we can try one of the guys on the team, at second.

        And they will have some money coming off the books after next year, before the new luxary tax goes into affect so it isn’t as bad as you think.

        Ethier, Crawford, and Guerrero comes off the books, after 2017, and the new luxary tax, goes into effect, before 2018.

  6. Just read both the De Leon and Calhoun articles at Dodger Blue, though it was difficult to get through them as the site kept crashing on me.

    A couple of observations – De Leon’s sudden drop in velocity and inability to spin the ball as well as he did just last year is concerning. Knowing our team’s history of injury I have to wonder. From MLB’s #21 top prospect, and our #1 pitching prospect to MLB’s #33 and our #2 tells me something ain’t right. Also, the team said they are willing to open the second base job to in house competition, 3 guys ready to compete, not ruling out anyone, but at the same time it was mentioned the team’s top priority appears to be Dozier, who can occupy the spot for two years “until Calhoun is ready”. So we look to trade our #2 pitching prospect, and likely a couple others, for a two year rental while a 22 year old prospect figures it out and Hernandez and Taylor masticate in the corner of the roster.

    “Banana Man” hit .305, then was sent to his room to think about what he had done. He didn’t hit when he didn’t know if he was wanted. And I have to ask – “why Taylor?” Yeah, yeah – depth. I’ve heard that claptrap before. It ain’t depth when it not only isn’t used but you’re looking to trade top prospects for a player that will only bury that depth deeper.

    So, once again, we sit and wait while the FAZ wheels turn. We’re still favored to win the West. And that’s a good thing.

    1. I was thinking Hernandez would be given second last year to lose but he was injured early and never heard from again. I don’t like his swing and thought his big beginning was aided by a overly high BABIP.

      I would hope the in-house battle for second will be between Hernandez and Taylor. Taylor’s projections can be seen here: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=22&lg=all&players=0&sort=18,d

      Fangraphs Steamer Projections:
      Taylor: .259 .323 .357 .680
      Dozier: 247 .330 .449 .779
      Hernandez: 241 .306 .390 .696

      I agree with Badger, Dozier’s projections will be less at Dodger Stadium.

      1. Hawkeye

        That is what I read, and heard to, about Kike.

        There was an article, and a graph, that showed Kike had a lot of trouble hitting curves.

    1. McCutchen would cost some more of our top prospects. To do so continues the hemorrhaging of talent from our future. Though I’m concerned about JDL’s velocity and spin rate, and I was willing to trade him (for Hamels) when he was a Top 20 prospect, I still see him taking one of the rotation spots that will no doubt be vacated by the ineluctable inability to take the ball by somebody, or somebodies, on this roster. That said, I guess if the braintrust is ready to give up on him, get somebody good in return. De Leon by himself gets nobody. Put the package of 3 together and see if it’s accepted.

      btw, Chris Taylor over a full year projects ok. No power of course, but if he could get 400+ PA’s he could put up 1 WAR. But then, Kiké projects even better. Who knows.

      1. Hope the Spa retreat did the trick Badger and you are feeling good.

        I also read that article about JDL, and that’s what clinched it for me, together with my own eye test from last season.
        Not sure he’s gonna miss enough bats.

        I’d happily take McCutcheon but Braun would be my choice.

      1. Yeah, that’s been proffered before. The same logic prevails today.

        Why would Ethier ok that move? And don’t say playing time. Google the Reds depth chart.

        Look, I get it , you’re from the Midwest and you call it home. I’ve lived in Nebraska, Missouri and Wisconsin. I know people there “wouldn’t live anywhere else”, many because they never HAVE lived anywhere else. Ethier is a west guy, raised in Arizona, became rich and has a modeling career in Los Angeles. He don’t want to live and work in no Cincinnati. And here’s another thing – we could actually use his bat. Looking at our outfield he may be the best hitter out there.

        1. You are right there. If Andre were to approve a trade, it would most likely be to the Angels, who could use him, or the D-Backs who could not really use him since their OF is packed. And he is definitely one of the better hitters on our roster. If healthy, he can be a big asset. Or he can improve his trade value for a deadline deal.

          1. I agree with Badger that Ethier might be our best hitter in the outfield, and I don’t think he will accept a trade, because he will want to play for Roberts this year, since he couldn’t last year.

        2. Badger

          As you know I read that article on JDL.

          I wondering if they were talking about his velocity being down, when he pitched in the majors, or over all last year.

          I wonder because some of the other things that they brought up, didn’t match with what I have heard others say about JDL’s performance, when he pitched in the majors.

          If he isn’t that pitcher anymore, it might be best to trade him at his highest value, but I don’t think Dozier is going to help us that much.

          He isn’t a really good hitter.

          From what I have read about him, he is a right handed pull hitter, and those type of hitters, hit more hard balls into a shift, then hit them over the wall, or for a hit.

          We difinitly need a good hitter with power, and Braun is a good hitter.

          If we can trade one of our starting pitchers, Kazmir or McCarthy, a trade might be there.

          I know it will take more, and we would have to see the other players in the deal, to see if it is worth it.

          I just hope they don’t trade for Dozier!

          I just don’t think Dozier will solve our problem, so I am not big on trading for him.

          But I know we need a bat, so I am open to trying to get Braun, or some other player, that will help the team.

          I like that the front office did bring Turner and Kenley back, it shows they are learning, when it comes to free agents

          These guys might not live up to all of there contract, but most players don’t live up to there last years of there contracts, so that is just something teams accept.

          It was the right move, especially with the other players, they choose to give multi year contracts to, in the past, so they did well.

          And we had no one in the minors to fill these roles, so it was the right thing to do.

          And they actually did get Turner for a very good price, and they actually saved a little with Kenley too.

        3. With that bad haircut trying to cover up his receding hairline, I’m not sure what he’s modeling these days. I originally agreed with that thought and my first instinct is that he would veto, but like others have said, does want to spend his contract year sitting on the bench. You may also be able to kick in $10 million with Andre and some prospects for Harrison and McCutchen. Andre is owed $20 million still. Pirates have said that they would need a stop gap for Meadows before he’s ready to take over Lf. Just a thought. If we’re going to blow prospects on someone with 2 years left, part of me would rather spend it on a motivated McCutchen who I also think would fit in better in LA than Dozier.

  7. Gimme a power OF bat and good ‘D’ @ 2B and I’d be happy…
    As I’ve said so many times ST will be as good as it gets this year… Alot of kids vying for the Show… Alot of xs SP’s wondering where their next stop is.

  8. Hello Pete – Hope life is good with you. Just booked my return trip to the Galway Festival next July. Galway – what a city. Party, party

  9. You watch yourself Mate… Once Galway sees your booking, they’ll be on alert..
    I just lost my older brother Tuesday and him and I had several great trips to Ireland including Galway, the gem of the west coast.. The mourning commenced early as he would have wished and we have all kicked in to celebrating his life… He will have box seats at the Ravine in 2017…

    1. I’m very sorry to hear that.

      Puts things in perspective really, but absolutely agree that a celebration of life is the way to go.
      I’m sure he would have wanted that.

  10. Playing GM. Would a package of Stewart,Stripling,Avilan and Kiki get a Dozier (or Forsythe).
    Kinsler apparently wants perks to waive the no trade. If he can be convinced –all of the above and JDL and would that be enough to for Kinsler and Verlander( who just bought a home in Beverly Hills)?

    With enough candidates for the fifth starter spot ,Ryu,Kazmir,McCarthy…and a number of young arms on the verge, it seems that there is pitching available to make a “fair” deal.

    Been reading this site for years.. Quite entertaining. Thought I’d join the fray !

  11. I just read that the hold up right now on the Dozier deal is who would be headed to the Twinkies with JDL. Garcia is out for the year after TJ surgery. So there goes one possible BP arm. Rockies signed Mike Dunn a very serviceable reliever. Looks like the Rocks are making a concerted effort to be legitimate this year. I also read the power rankings and the Dodgers were #4 Behind Cleveland, Boston and The Cubbies. The Giants were #7 and the Dirtbags all the way down at 15. The Padres were rated 30th. Good news is that I got an apartment so that is one thing I do not have to sweat anymore. Be moving in after I get back from California.

    1. I’ve been thinking the same thing about the Rockies, but giving $6 million a year to a fly ball pitcher like Dunn made little sense to me.

  12. Personally I think they have moved on from any thoughts of trading for McCutcheon. They might revisit the Braun idea, but then again, is Puig is sticking to doing what the FO asked of him, I think they stand pat in the OF. The BP needs some re-tooling and I like Badger am not a huge fan of this pitching rotation. Then again they might, and this is a big maybe, surprise us and all be healthy most of the year. If JDL is included in a trade for Dozier, that opens a slot for Stripling and or Stewart to step up and be that guy. We will know more in 8 weeks when they head to Camelback.

  13. I think that if Dozier came to LA, he would be an upgrade, but it’s more like 25 HR… maybe he improves on his BA… maybe not. He would likely hit better in a lineup surrounded by more hitters.

    While I do not see JDL as a long-term starter with all the rest of our prospects, I do see him as a very good set-up man who can pitch 2 innings with added velocity on his fastball. I would love to see him in the setup role.

    I guess I would trade him and Calhoun for Dozier. I’d still like to see Braun in Blue.

    OK, Dodgers take all Braun’s salary and trade Puig, McCarthy or Kazmir, Lux and Stewart for him.

    1. Toles RF
    2. Seager SS
    3. Braun LF
    4. Turner 3B
    5. Gonzo 1B
    6. Dozier 2B
    7. Grandal C
    8. Pederson CF

    All of those above players are capable of 25 HR, except for Toles. Put Ethier in RF…

    1. I agree Mark. For some unknown reason, power hitters who come to LA rarely match their career numbers. A-Gone has never hit 30 here and he did that quite regularly. The two exceptions were Shawn Green and Gary Sheffield. I still do not think they want to add Braun’s salary if they trade for Dozier.

      1. Michael

        Agone just hit 28 HRs in 2015, so I think he will come back,
        and hit at least 25 next year.

        He had the same power numbers, and other offensive numbers, that he had the year before, after he came back, from those three days off last year.

        And if his neck was bothering him, it sure didn’t look like it was, when he hit that high fastball, off Greinke, for a HR.

        That was one fun game to watch!

    2. Mark

      I like your trade idea, but you know me, I don’t trade Stewart, and especially now, with JDL either being traded, or not being the starter we thought we had.

      But everyone else, I don’t have a problem with, just find someone else, besides Stewart.

      And if that is all you would have to give up for Dozier, maybe we won’t be burned that much, if we did trade for Dozier.

      But I still have my doubts about Dozier, and I hope the front office doesn’t give up to much if they trade for Dozier.

      But other then that, that trade and that line up, looks really good to me.

      But I have a question for everyone, why is the Dodgers last number one pick, not that attractive as a player, to everyone here?

      And I am talking about Lux.

    3. Dozier hit leadoff for the Twinkies and stole more bases than anyone on the Dodgers. I’m cool with Toles at the top too.

  14. Richie posted this:

    Mark is going to love this: Top catchers in 2016 Fielding Runs Above Average per Baseball Prospectus.
    1. +30 Posey
    2. +28 GRANDAL
    3. +17 Castro
    4. +12 Martin

    I already knew that…. maybe others will wake up a little bit from their altered state of reality!

    1. I do not think he will ever be a high average hitter. But he has power, and as you have said he could improve in his plate blocking. The one defensive trait I do not think he will master is his caught stealing percentage. But we will see how it works out.

        1. The guy is what he is. And I recognize that. I have never liked PED users and that is one of the reasons I have disliked the guy. But there are no real options in the farm system yet and I for one do not think that Barnes has the tools to be an everyday catcher. I realize he has great power potential. Yet he hits for a better average from the right side. I think his average goes up if he A. Cuts down on his strikeouts, and B has much better pitch recognition than he has had in the past. He seems to get fooled a lot. Joc has that problem also.

  15. There’s a dearth of great catchers in MLB. I just checked the Roto sites and none of them believe Grandal will improve. Neither do I. Stick a fork in him. He’s past his prime.

    1. Don’t boo, trade.

      I would rather trade Grandal instead of many prospects. Barnes can get the job done defensively and it not, then Farmer.

      1. OK, I can see that!

        I like Lux… from what I see, but I have not seen him a lot. I think he will likely be a solid player, but Corey ain’t moving from SS for a long time. He’s from that neck of the woods, so I thought it might be a fit.

        You have to give up a lot to get a lot.

        As it stands now, I would try JLD as a setup guy.

        I would get Baez a shrink and convince him to “quick pitch.”

        In Spring Training, I would see who is healthy among Ryu, McCarthy and Kazmir. If all there are healthy (doubtful), I would put Ryu or Kaz in the Rotation and McCarthy in the pen.

        Kershaw, Hill, Maeda and Urias are the other 4 and then we have Wood (pen), Stewart, De Jong and Buehler (who may be the best one).

    1. I was half right. I didn’t believe he’d hit .275. And framing is slowly a dying fad.

      .235/.333/.425 – less than 110 games, less than 25 home runs, less than 60 ribbies, 25% strike out rate, but because WAR is an imperfect calculation – 2.5 WAR and therefor a financial bargain.

      1. WAR, like all the other statistics, merely gives a reference number. It takes a human computer to put that into context, so someone (not a computer) can decide how useful it is and how much value it has and how much it is worth in dollars. The guys who spend too much time on their slide rules are really just fighting their urge to masturbate….

  16. MJ says:
    December 16, 2016 at 1:08 pm
    Wonder

    I was wondering where you have been, that is why I came back here.

    There is a new post today.

    And Mark and Michael, seemed to call a truce.

    No, just a timeout between rounds, They have a jihad that is eternal.

    1. “DeLeon makes a lot of sense for Twins, who could use young SP to complement young core. Dodgers extremely deep in near-ML-ready SP, too.”

      Extremely deep? After De Leon, who might that be? Alvarez, #5, is 20, Buehler, #7, Sheffield #9, surely aren’t ready and only grade out at 50.

        1. It’s fun to have unrealistic expectations.

          But seriously, I have no problem moving de Leon. As Passan later notes, DeLeon makes a lot of sense for Twins, who could use young SP to complement young core. Dodgers extremely deep in near-ML-ready SP, too.

          No chance you add Alvarez, but if you have to add a Segedin or Paroubeck, that’s great.

      1. Stripling, DeJong, Stewart, Buehler, Oaks

        And those are the ones close to MLB. Further down the pipeline?

        Alexy, Alvarez, Uter, Boyle.

  17. It’s going to cost prospects to make a trade to upgrade the major league roster. If you think that the Blue can cover 2B or improve hitting against southpaws or cover losses in the ‘pen from within then you aren’t in favor of trades. I personally don’t see anyone who I would like to see starting at 2B currently on the roster and if the Blue are going to obtain someone else, whether Dozier, Kinsler, Solarte or someone else, it will cost prospects, who are the coin of the realm.

    Put another way, if the Dodgers don’t want the likes of McCarthy or Kazmir, especially considering what they cost in salary, why would the Twins or someone else?

    Given the risks inherent in prospects (ie. the 80% chance that they are never any good), vs. the risk that you are trading away the next Pedro Martinez, you do the best you can figuring out who will really be any good long term and where you have the greatest cushion (ie. “extra” prospects) and trade from your abundance. If this is true, right handed pitchers and lefty outfielders are who you trade.

    I am in favor of trading some mix of prospects and major leaguers for the right 2B. I am not informed enough to have an opinion on what prospects that I would never trade, but they can’t all be untouchable.

    1. Sound thinking Rick. You figure out who you think will be your best Major League producers, and hope like hell those who you want to trade with haven’t figured out the same thing.

      Right handed pitchers and left handed hitters? Like Holmes, Cotton, Montas and Schebler? DeLeon next? That’s 2 pitchers that grade at 55, Holmes and De Leon, and two more at 50. I’d like to have them (and Peraza) back. I still see starting pitching as a potential problem.

        1. He’s 23 in April. Runs like the wind. I don’t know that FAZ values speed. They’ve unloaded it twice now.

          I remember reading somewhere after we traded him – “the Dodgers have a prospect-laden AAA rotation of Montas, Urias, De Leon and Cotton”. Seems like only yesterday.

          1. Taylor is very fast as well.

            2017 Steamer projections:

            Taylor: .259 .323 .357 .680
            Peraza: 282 .317 .382 .698

    2. Rick

      McCarthy was brought up in that trade for Braun at the trade deadline, and it sounded like the Brewers had no problem with McCarthy.

      1. If you were making a trade, would you want McCarthy? If you wouldn’t, why would someone else? What has McCarthy done that would make him attractive? If the Dodgers ate all of his salary I could see some team taking a flyer on him but if the Dodgers did that, they wouldn’t get any salary relief.

        I expect that those who have opined that the Blue will give McCarthy and Kazmir a chance to show what they can do and attempt to re-establish their value before trading them are probably correct. You try to buy low and sell high – trading McCarthy now would be selling low.

        1. Rick

          I thought the Brewers were going to take some of McCarthy’s salary in that trade for Braun

          And you know I am not a McCarthy supporter, but Braun still has a few years still left on his contract.

          1. It was Puig, McCarthy, and two prospects. McCarthy was going to help with luxury tax hit but didn’t get anywhere on prospects.

        2. And the Twins are selling high on Dozier. He’s not going to repeat ’16 in the NL West – or anywhere for that matter, but surely not in Dodger Stadium.

          1. OK, so why not play hardball with the Twins? If we get him, we get him at our price. If we don’t get him, players are like street cars, another one will be along later…

          2. Badger

            We don’t need another hitter, that can’t hit above 250, and strikes out a lot.

            That type of hitter, doesn’t hit good pitching well.

        3. If you have ever enjoyed Statistics and Probability Classes (I did not enjoy it), you might conclude that good things are due to happen to McCarthy.

  18. I prefer waiting to after May before making a trade if there is a possibility to include McCarthy or Kazmir. Start the season with Taylor at second and Thompson/SVS in LF.

    Ruh should give Agon more rest than he had last year and we should live with a platoon in LF one more year with either SVS or Thompson sharing LF with Toles. I would try to keep Joc and Puig in the lineup.

    1. Ruf? Toles?

      Outfield depth chart has 6 listed, all capable of being starters – Toles, Ethier, SVS, Thompson, Pederson, Puig. Infielders are Turner, Seager, Hernandez, Gonzalez, SVS, Segedin, Taylor, Johnson, Ruf, with Ruf listed 4th at first base. We have 8 starting pitchers, 14 relievers and 3 catchers. Somefin gotta give.

  19. I said don’t trade Jose De Leon, his spin rate and lower mph can easily be attributed to his shoulder soreness. We have plenty of 250 hitters who can play second base. Let’s not just trade to stay busy. Yasiel for Braun makes some sense, but still I would rather have a young Yasiel Puig than an aging Braun. We have gotten screwed so many times over the years

        1. No, but our front office seems 2 toss around our young prospects like Santa Claus at the mall. I would mind reading that our asking price for de leon is just too high. I just wish that our front office held out a little more. Their track record is not that good

          1. Help me Melton. I can’t remember other times beyond the Hill trade that FAZ has tossed around young prospects.

  20. They exchanged some prospects here and there – with Miami, Atlanta and the Reds. Not sure exactly how the dust settled on all that. I read somewhere they had made 350 roster moves, but some of that may have been movement from gurneys and wheelchairs to hospital beds.

    I think Ray made a good point about De Leon. He was blowing minor leaguers away with 3 swing and miss pitches, averaging over 10k/9 ip and in some stops as high as 14. Then the soreness. Maybe he’s a closer in making, maybe another 5 inning starter, whatever, he’s 24 and a Top 30 MLB prospect, so if he’s included they get him and lower rated prospects and that is all they should get. Yeah, Dozier probably projects better than anyone we have, but the Twins are trading him after a career year. He won’t do in LA what he did in Minneapolis. Nobody does. It’s just not a park where career years are improved upon. The lights are brighter and the air is thicker in Los Angeles. That MUST be included in your probability algorithms.

    Michael, I’m looking at the MLB.com Dodgers depth chart as I type and it has E. Hernandez as our starting second baseman. Until further notice, that’s where I have him now too.

    1. Badger

      That is why I was wondering if they were talking about when JDL was pitching in the majors, or they were talking about his minor league season last year.

      He didn’t get up here fast enough, to get the learning curve that Urias and Stewart got.

      And that is because of his shoulder, and hurting his ankle.

      In that article they said something about his sliders, but he didn’t really throw any of his sliders much at all, in the majors, or at all, is what I read somewhere else.

      And his slider is suppose to be pretty good.

    2. Ok I get that, but on the Dodgers roster on their web site he is carried as an OF. Ruf is listed as an infielder. They have 6 on the roster. Gonzo, Ruf, Seager, Taylor, Johnson, and Segedin. Turner is not officially signed yet and they will need a roster spot when he is. The roster shows they are carrying 7 OF’s……Kike, SVS, Toles, Thompson, Puig, Ethier, and Pederson. Winter has officially hit Southern Colorado…….

        1. That is not a people….that is a pooch…….my dog loves the snow….for about 2 minutes then he runs back in the house shivering!

    1. I read in comments that although Calhoun bats leftie, he hits lefties too.

      And that is how it is suppose to be.

      I think we should give him a chance.

      The Cubs didn’t give up on Swarber because he isn’t that good defensively.

      Sometimes smaller players like Calhoun have a chip on there shoulder, that makes them play even harder.

      Calhoun has said he is working on his defense in the off season, so if he does that, he can get better defensively.

      And with all of these shifts, a player doesn’t have to cover as much ground, especially laterally.

      1. MJ:
        I don’t know what his BA is vs LHP. I can’t find it.
        He hasn’t played above AA and his Fielding % is only .948 was below the average for a major league 2nd baseman.
        If, indeed, his bat is major league ready, it’s been said he may do well in the AL as a DH.

          1. It might be easier, but that doesn’t mean Calhoun can do it.

            He hasn’t proven he can, and scouts are very doubtful to the same end.

    2. Then trade McCarthy(2 yrs- $23MM); Kazmir(pay 1/2 or $17.67MM) Puig( 2yrs-$17.5MM) for Braun( 4 yrs- $80MM). Net result : Brewers save about $23MM.

    3. Sounds like we’re supposed to rebuild their team just for a 268 second baseman or whatever he was batting. I guess we’ll get it back in the 25 home runs hit for the next two or 3 years. In the meantime… they will have a starting pitcher for the next seven or eight years their future second baseman who is a great hitter, they’re bullpen will be shored up and who knows what else. How can that sound like a good deal? Unless you’re from Minnesota

      1. It’s a good deal only if Dozier puts up 3+ WAR for 2+ years or JDL goes under the knife in Rochester. They can have Baez. But I think including Calhoun would be too much. Give them Taylor. Or how about our current starting second baseman, E. Banana Hernandez. We don’t seem to think much of him anymore.

        I don’t know. I’m a De Leon fan and I like Calhoun’s stick. Give him to me, I’ll hit him two-a-day grounders from now until April. 150 in the morning and 150 in the afternoon. He’ll be Davey Lopes by the time I’m done with him. I may need some help with that in the afternoon. My nap time is around 2, so….. volunteers?

        1. Badger

          They always talk about Calhoun’s odd shape, to play second, take a look at him on Dodger Nation.

          They have an article about him there, and they have a picture of him there too.

          He doesn’t look that big to me, and in that Allstar game, he ran around the bases quick.

          A young player like Calhoun, isn’t going to be a DH.

          Like you just said, a player can learn to get better defensively, if they are willing to work at it.

          1. Saw a home video once of Brett Butler getting hit in the jewels by a line drive off the bat of his son……it was awesome!

      2. JDL and Calhoun are prospects nothing more and Calhoun is far from being a great hitter unless you consider .277 BA(2015 & 2016) great.
        There has already been concern about JDL’s health this year and he would certainly on be mid-rotation for us and we do have replacements( Alvarez, Buehler, Sheffield, Stewart, Stripling, Wood etc.).

        1. Badger

          I just think he has the confidence to be a better player, then some think.

          He actually won the MVP at Allstar game.

          What happen to if he can hit, I will find a place for him on the field?

    1. Wondering

      That has to be frustrating.

      It was 39 degrees when I got up at seven today, and right now it is 41.

      As you guys know, that is cold for Southern California.

      UCLA is on CBS at noon today.

      I like college basket ball better then pro basket ball.

      Because there is more team work, and more excitement in college basket ball.

      And it looks like UCLA might be back to being good again!

      1. Considerably colder in Cucamonga than near the beach where I used to live. 70 to 80 in the summer, 50 to 60 in the winter. Wish I were there now…

        1. Wondering

          I know it is cold here, and you would think it would be colder at the beach, but it isn’t.

          I accidently hit San Diego the other day, and it was ten degrees warmer.

          Doesn’t it get cold over where you are?

          Because I know the desert can get cold enough to snow at times, and it is very hot too.

          1. Compared to what it is outside here right now, you guys are having a heat wave! It is snowing and the wind is blowing so it is about 16 degrees.

          2. Yes, our nighttime temperatures are in the 30s and 40s and I have seen them in the teens here. The ocean at your latitude never gets colder than 60 degrees, nor warmer than the low 70s. Than warms (and cools) the air to some degree over the land mass and that is why living close to the ocean is climatologically so pleasant. When I hit the lottery I will be moving back there somewhere.

      1. Yes, I play. I drive 27 miles to Shoshone every 10 weeks to buy tickets. I’d like to live close to where I did before, Westminster, but I also think San Diego might be OK too.

  21. Since everyone is into the Christmas Spirit(s), I thought I’d post this video which highlights the true spirit of Christmas.

  22. I’m glad this deal is taking time to conclude. There must be more to it than we know. Maybe we will be getting some other players back.

    1. What makes you think a deal is actually happening? Probably just phone calls back and forth, and probably similar calls to a half dozen other clubs…

      1. I hope they don’t trade for Dozier.

        I am afraid they may give up to much, for him.

        Remember we traded a young pitching prospect for Howie, and that was only for one year.

        And now we want to trade JDL for another second baseman, for only two years.

        I know Friedman said that if he could take a move back, he wouldn’t have traded that young pitching prospect for Howie.

        And that was more about the young pitching prospect, then about Howie.

        So maybe they will be more careful.

        I still wouldn’t mind getting Solarte for second.

        The Padre’s GM is being watched, so we may be able to make a better deal with the Padres.

    1. Wondering

      A White Sox writer said that they would hold on to Abreu, to help Moncada get more acquainted to the majors.

      Because Abreu and Moncada played on the same team in Cuba.

      The White Sox did well, when they signed Abreu.

      He has been really good for them.

    2. Wondering

      I think that was just one of those raises that players get, because they signed him to a multi year contract, like we did with Puig.

      It is to bad that Puig is not the hitter that Abreu is.

        1. Badger

          I know, but he seems to get worse every year.

          And he has a lot of trouble slowing the game down, especially when he is hitting, in clutch situations.

          If Puig could really start hitting, and learn to slow the game down, he would be a better player then Cespedes.

          1. I agree. I often wonder how much Yassie wants it. If Roberts can get through to him I can see a productive year. With his power he could hit 30 easy if he just learns to take control of HIS strike zone. Don’t swing at balls. Just leave them alone and take the walk. Zero in and punish strikes. Seems easy to me. He might be one of those guys with a Mike Trout body and Lenny Dykstra head.

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