Dodgers Tiebreaker Scenarios, Match-ups For Final Series Against Giants

The Dodgers enter the final series of the regular season in the lion’s den against their hated rivals the San Francisco Giants. The Giants long since eliminated from the postseason will be looking to play spoiler. The Dodgers will be playing for their collective lives as they enter the weekend currently one game behind Colorado for the NL West and only a full game ahead of the Cardinals for the second wild card. There are a ton of different tiebreaker scenarios, and possible outcomes. I’ll go over those in a minute. However every inning, every pitch, every decision is crucial and could make or break the Dodger’s 2018 season. Pay attention Dave.

Standing in the Dodger’s way in the series opener on Friday evening will be long-time Dodger nemesis Madison Bumgarner. The Dodgers will give the ball to Hyun-jin Ryu to counter. According to reports Bumgarner requested to pitch in this final series, and while the Giants are terrible, you best believe they will be pumped to try and knock out the Dodgers.

The important thing to remember is that the Giants are terrible. Make no mistake about that. The San Francisco club is 73-86 fourth place in the NL West. They’re 16 games behind Colorado and have lost 7 of their last 10 contests. The Giants are horrendous on the road, but actually have played decent (42-36) at At&t Park. They recently lost a franchise record eleven consecutive games to plummet out of contention. They don’t have Buster Posey, who is out for the rest of the season. They don’t have Brandon Belt available either.

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Bumgarner has faced the Dodgers twice in 2018. He’s 1-1 over those two starts. The Dodgers beat him back on June 16 at Dodger Stadium and then he beat the Dodgers on August 13. He’s been limited to just 123 innings pitched this season and has a 6-6 record with a 3.20 ERA. He’s struck out 103 and walked 42. He’s allowed 13 home runs and 8.1 hits per nine innings. Over 31 career starts against the Dodgers Bumgarner is 15-10 with a 2.61 ERA.

The current Dodgers have slugged 16 home runs against Bumgarner and knocked in 33 runs over 362 plate appearances. Enrique Hernandez is hitting .444 (16 for 36) with four home runs and five doubles versus Bumgarner. Expect to see him in the lineup. David Freese is 7 for 15 with 2 home runs against Bumgarner.

Bumgarner vs. Dodgers

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP OPS
Matt Kemp 66 61 12 3 0 3 7 4 14 .197 .242 .636
Justin Turner 61 56 14 3 0 3 6 4 8 .250 .295 .759
Yasiel Puig 51 46 10 2 0 2 3 4 10 .217 .294 .685
Enrique Hernandez 37 36 16 5 0 4 8 1 10 .444 .459 1.376
Clayton Kershaw 24 23 4 1 0 0 1 0 9 .174 .174 .391
David Freese 16 15 7 2 0 2 4 1 4 .467 .500 1.500
Yasmani Grandal 15 13 1 1 0 0 1 0 7 .077 .133 .287
Chase Utley 15 14 2 0 0 0 0 1 3 .143 .200 .343
Austin Barnes 13 12 3 0 0 1 1 1 2 .250 .308 .808
Chris Taylor 12 11 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 .091 .167 .258
Cody Bellinger 10 8 2 0 0 0 0 2 1 .250 .400 .650
Joc Pederson 9 9 2 1 0 1 1 0 4 .222 .222 .889
Hyun-Jin Ryu 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 .000 .000 .000
Brian Dozier 6 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .200 .167 .367
Manny Machado 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 .200 .333 .733
Kyle Farmer 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .500
Alex Wood 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Rich Hill 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000
Kenta Maeda 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Rocky Gale 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Andrew Toles 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Total 362 333 77 19 0 16 33 20 86 .231 .276 .708

 

Ryu is making his fifteenth start of the season. He’s 6-3 with a 2.00 ERA across 76.1 innings pitched. Ryu has struck out 86 and walked only 13 while allowing only 7.5 hits per nine innings. He’s struck out 10.1 per nine and given up just eight home runs. Ryu has been fantastic. In 14 career starts against the Giants he is 4-6 with a 3.09 ERA. In 8 career starts at At&t Park he is 4-3 with a 3.38 ERA. Ryu has faced the Giants twice this year as well, beating them on August 15, tossing six shutout innings. He also lost to the Giants back on April 27. Honestly he doesn’t give up much this season. The current Giants are hitting.277 with a .696 OPS against Ryu. They’ve hit only two home runs (Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria) and have 28 strikeouts against 7 walks. The lone Giant to have any kind of sustained success against Ryu is old and weird Hunter Pence. The veteran outfielder is hitting .419 (13 for 31) with seven runs batted in.

Ryu vs. Giants

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP OPS
Hunter Pence 33 31 13 2 0 0 7 2 5 .419 .455 .938
Brandon Crawford 25 24 6 2 0 1 3 1 5 .250 .280 .738
Brandon Belt 24 21 5 2 0 0 1 3 4 .238 .333 .667
Gregor Blanco 12 11 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .182 .250 .432
Joe Panik 11 9 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .300 .744
Madison Bumgarner 10 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 .200 .200 .400
Gorkys Hernandez 8 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 .375 .375 .875
Evan Longoria 5 5 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 .200 .200 1.000
Derek Holland 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000
Nick Hundley 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .667
Alen Hanson 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000
Ryder Jones 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Austin Slater 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Kelby Tomlinson 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Total 139 130 36 8 0 2 13 7 28 .277 .312 .696

 

Here are the scenarios for the postseason that involve the Dodgers.

Best case

Obviously the best case scenario is the Dodgers winning the NL West. Right now they are one game back and the earliest they could clinch would be Sunday, the last day of the regular season. They would need some help from the Nationals in order to do it, but it’s still in play. Any combination of three Colorado wins, or Dodger losses, and the Rockies win the NL West.

Tiebreaker- The Dodgers hold home field advantage for a potential tiebreaker with Colorado for the NL West based on their season series win over the Rockies. If that happens the game would be played Monday at Dodger Stadium.

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Wild Card

If the Dodgers don’t win the NL West, they could still make it in as a Wild Card. Currently the boys in blue hold a one game lead over the Cardinals for the second wild card spot in the National League. I guess you could say their magic number to clinch a wild card berth is three. So any combination of Cardinal losses or Dodger wins amounting to three gets the Dodgers in.

Tiebreaker- unfortunately if there is a tiebreaker for the second wild card spot between the Dodgers and Cardinals, it would be played in St. Louis on Monday night. Remember that pathetic shutout loss against Adam Wainwright on Sunday night baseball? That win clinched the season series for the Cardinals 4-3 over the Dodgers and secured home field for a potential tiebreaker.

Chaos Scenario

There s still a chance however unlikely that the Dodgers, Rockies and Cardinals all finish tied at the end of the regular season. If that happens the Dodgers would play a tiebreaker against Colorado at Dodger Stadium for the NL West title. The winner of that game would move onto the NLDS. The loser would play the Cardinals in St. Louis in a tiebreaker for the second wild card spot. It’s entirely insane, yet possible that the Dodgers would play three one-game playoffs (including the actual wild card game) in order to advance to the NLDS.

Worst Case

The absolute worst case scenario is the Dodgers not making it in at all. That would mean Colorado winning the NL West and the Cardinals taking the second wild card. If that were to happen then the Cardinals would likely play either the Brewers or the Cubs in the Wild Card game. The Cubs currently hold a one game lead over Milwaukee in the NL Central.

My guess is the Dodgers make it in as a wild card taking two out of three over the Giants this weekend. They still have a shot at the NL West, but I think they would need to sweep to make that happen and get some help from the Nationals. The Rockies play the Nationals in Denver over the weekend in their final regular season series. Even though the Giants suck, the Dodgers can’t take anything for granted in this series. They have to win and taking two of three is a must. Somehow, someway the baseball gods have to help get the Dodgers back to Los Angeles for the NLDS next week. I personally don’t care how that happens, whether that’s via a tiebreaker, the wild card, or just winning the division outright. Please take care of this Dodgers.

Scott Andes

Scott Andes

Scott Andes: Former Co-editor of Lasorda's Lair. Longtime writer and Dodger fanatic Cheap MLB Tickets

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8 thoughts on “Dodgers Tiebreaker Scenarios, Match-ups For Final Series Against Giants

  1. I went over most of the scenarios in my last post. But Scott has it right. They absolutely need to sweep. They went from a team in control to a team needing help in the span of 3 days. Those losses to the Diamondbacks were just devastating. And all 3 games were winnable. Especially after they beat the D-Backs best pitcher on Monday. The Nats on the other hand are playing for pride and not much else. The Giants, who have done it before, would like nothing better than to ruin the year for the Dodgers. I still remember Joe Morgan hitting a 3 run jack off of Terry Forrester that knocked the Dodgers out of the pennant. Yes, Morgan was a Giant at the time and it happened at Candlestick Park.

    1. Giants announced that Pence would be hitting leadoff in all 3 of the final games. I think Pence is playing his last games as a Giant.

  2. I hope this is decided towards us, after these first two games, so we will have Buehler to pitch in the Wild Card, if we qualify for the Wild Card.

    1. They need to win all 3 MJ. Period. They cannot count on the Nats to beat the Rockies. They will probably need to win all 3 just to qualify for the wild card. There are so many possibilities. The Cubs are beating the Cardinals right now. The good thing is that the Dodgers will be able to see what the Rocks are doing during the game. If they see that the Rocks are losing, that can be uplifting. The Rockies win 2 of 3 and the Dodgers win 2 of 3, the Rocks still win the division. Rockies go 1-2, Dodgers go 2-1 it is tied. Rockies go 0-3 Dodgers 2-1 then the Dodgers would win the division. But if they go 3-0, it does not matter what the Rocks do, they will be in the wild card game at least. They have already said that Hill will be starting the wild card game.

  3. Cubs 8 Cardinals 4. With a win tonight, the Dodgers would be 2 up on St Loo and clinch at least a tie for the 2nd wild card. Bad pick by MLB.com for weirdest moment for the Dodgers. They picked the game where the team took BP with their shirts off. I would have gone with the power outage, or the backed up sewer game. I am now a proud member of the Dodgers fan forum…

  4. Tonight’s lineup. Hernandez, RF Turner, 3B, Freese, 1B Machado, SS Kemp, LF Taylor, CF Grandal, C Dozier, 2B Ryu, P Looks like they are going for defense with Dozier at 2nd. Even though Barnes has a higher BA against Bumgarner, Grandal gets the start. At least he has been having better at bats and actually hit a homer RH this week. Something I did not know, there is an option on Roberts contract.

      1. On vacation??? I have no clue. Ryu pitched great, Turner goes yard, bullpen hangs on and they got 5 double plays….Kike 3-3 against the Mad Bum now is 19-39 against him in his career……

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