numberFire Releases Dodgers 2017 Projections

Clayton Kershaw-22

Our good friends over at numberFire.com have released their projections for the 2017 season. They have projections out for all 30 clubs, including league wide projections as well. Projections are always fun to look at before the season begins. Projections are a good way to gauge how a player or team might perform during the season. Of course remember that these are just projections. None of them are set in stone. A player or team may significantly surpass their projections, or they may do the opposite and underachieve.

Here is a list of numberFire’s projections for the Dodger’s position players.

Notice how NF does not project any Dodger to bat over .300, although Corey Seager comes close with a .297 average. NF also thinks he will have the highest OBP at .349. Adrian Gonzalez is projected for 19 home runs and 66 runs batted in and a .271 average. That equals to a .771 OPS. I personally think that Gonzo will be much more productive than that. Yasiel Puig projects for 15 home runs, and a .275 average. Apparently Joc Pederson will hit 25 home runs, and Justin Turner will smack 22 long balls. Andrew Toles will lead the club with 11 stolen bases. That’s a stat that will probably be most accurate. The Dodgers running game has been nonexistent for years, although they did improve in their overall base running. numberFire believes the Dodgers will hit 181 home runs. Kike Hernandez will bat .230 with a .680 OPS which certainly means he is ready to go into the hall of fame.

On the pitching side Clayton Kershaw is going to be incredible as usual. He’ll win 17 games and post an ERA of 2.39. Kershaw will strike out 249 and walk only 41 for a 0.97 WHIP. Rich Hill will go 11-7 with a 3.30 ERA and strike out 147 over 147 frames. Not great but not bad either way you look at it. I’ll take it. Kenta Maeda will toss 170 innings and win 13 games while whiffing 166. Julio Urias will pitch 118 innings and post a 3.49 ERA with a 123/45 SO/BB line. Kenley Jansen will save 40 games and strikeout a boatload of batters again. Brandon McCarthy will be useless.

Ignore Yimi Garcia’s line. Apparently the guys at NF forgot that he had Tommy John surgery and will not pitch this year.

According to their stats the Dodgers have a 71.6% chance of reaching the postseason and a 7.7% chance of winning the World Series. Like I said above, take all of these numbers with a grain of salt. I firmly believe that projections don’t mean anything. The games are played on the field and always have been. They’re still fun to look at though.

Scott Andes

Scott Andes

Scott Andes: Former Co-editor of Lasorda’s Lair. Longtime writer and Dodger fanatic

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57 thoughts on “numberFire Releases Dodgers 2017 Projections

  1. Gutierrez, Toles and Hernandez more at bats than Ethier?

    I buy the Seager and Turner numbers. I agree about Kershaw. McCarthy will be one small step above useless. AGon will be better than that and Barnes with 85 at bats makes no sense.

    These projections were thrown together and need a lot more analysis.

    1. Happy Birthday for a couple of days ago Badger.

      Meant to mention it before but slipped by my mind

      Remember every year because you share it with my youngest son.

      Another year older another year no WS!!

  2. Baseball projections are like political polls, usually reality has been warped.

    Don’t put much stock or time into reading a projection made after a week or two of Spring Training (in reality and not in marketing departments, ST is known as practice)

    1. I think most of these projections are for people, deep into the saber metric community, and people who follow them.

      It will be interesting to see if Puig will get 400 at bats this year, because he hasn’t done that, since 2014.

      Hill had a really bad spring last year, so that is good to hear, because it seems that it has been a control issue with him, this spring, so no reason, to worry now.

  3. Scott.

    True enough, these projections in all likelihood, will not be on the money. However, I am not optimistic about the Dodgers this year. Their pitching, Kershaw excluded, is very much up in the air. Lots of questions about durability and overall talent. Same goes for the hitters, especially in the talent department. Guys like Pederson, Puig, and Grandal, can’t seem to generate enough hits to merit optimism regarding an overall game. HR’s are fine, but so many missed opportunities to drive in runs with bread and butter hitting. This is what gets a team to the WS. I just don’t see them improving over last year.

    1. I share some of your concern Jeff.

      From what I can gather over the last two years our architects value OPS over, well, everything else. I value it too, but more than FAZ I value batting average and team speed. I also value clutch hitters, though not much is said about it in analytic conversation. Our RISP numbers have been bad for a while now. Get on, get over, get in. Old school chant but scoring runs is still the name of the game.

      Pederson is 25 this year. I look for improvement in his overall game, but what I’d really like to see is for him to handle left hand pitching better. .469 OPS is absurd. Work on it Joc. I don’t want a platoon in centerfield.

    2. Exactly what Jeff said. But about right now you should probably be ducking. 🙂

      On second thought that was last year.

      This year, you can state your opinion without too many Kool-Aid drinking FAZ lovers retaliating on this site. How dare you question Joc’s production….look at that OPS. How dare you question Grandal’s production….the ‘almost’ greatest framer of all time and a monster with the stick. So good he can swing it from both sides. How dare you question Puig…..the most talented player to wear a baseball uni since the great Bo Jackson despite the fact that he has never produced at an all-star caliber level for even a full season. Ever heard of a million dollar talent but has a .10 cent brain……yep, anyone that leaves up to $500,000 in jewelry and money in their home and then heads away, well that’s not too bright. Next time just keep your door unlock so that nothing gets broken.

      And those pitchers…….oh the FAZophants will be jumping all over you for questioning the pitching staff of the great and powerful FAZ.

      Fortunately for you it is 2017 and many of the FAZophants have left to pat each other on the ass at another site.

    3. Jeff

      You do make good points.

      I agree with you about Puig, Joc, and Grandal.

      I had a debate with another commentor about Joc hitting at the top of the order, and I don’t see that happening, until Joc starts shortening his swing, with two strikes, when runners, are in scoring position.

      Both Grandal, and Joc, have trouble making contact, in these situations, more then others, on the team.

      And Puig can have trouble at times, in clutch situations too.

      And Puig hasn’t ever been good, in the post season, either.

      And I agree with you, about the post season, because in the post season, a team is going to face a lot of good pitching, and that makes it harder, for these type of hitters to make good contact, in these clutch situations.

      They might get one or two good pitches to hit out, but good pitchers, don’t give up to many good pitches to hit, so the players will have to learn how to make good contact, in these situations.

      Let’s hope that they all take a step up this year, so they will do better, if we go to the post season.

      Grandal is having a pretty good spring, so I hope he has a good start, this year.

      And I think Urias will step up, and be even better this year, once he gets in the rotation.

      And hopefully they will get his innings limit right, so he will be at his best, in the later part of the season.

  4. ‘Investigators estimated that $170,000 in jewelry and “other items” were taken from Puig’s residence, though that figure could grow, according to Preciado.

    The break-in was the latest in a string of thefts from celebrity homes across the city. Last month, burglars ripped a safe containing $2 million in jewelry from the Brentwood home of singer Alanis Morissette, police said.

    Heists at the Westside home of hip-hop star Nicki Minaj and the Tarzana residence of former Los Angeles Lakers guard Derek Fisher also resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of dollars in jewelry in recent months, police have said.’

    Nah, I don’t see any crime issues in the LA area. Home of the illegals. No one gets shot and killed in the great state of California by illegals (just don’t research San Francisco). They are law abiding citizens.

    They never find the culprits cause they do not exist. It’s called undocumentation. Just the way they like it.

    1. Chili

      There is bad in every group, but most illegals, don’t want to have any contact with the authorities, so they are the least likely, in society, to do anything like that, because they don’t want to be deported, back to there countries.

      And everyone wants any illegal that is a danger to society, to serve there time, and be deported back, to there country.

      And if they don’t find the illegals, then how do you know an illegal, killed that women, in Frisco?

      The problem seems to be, when certain illegals have finished there time, they are released, instead, of being deported back, to there countries.

      It sounds like a glitch in the system.

        1. I’m implying that it could as easily be the former or the latter. But that’s not really it. I guess I’m not implying but tacitly saying don’t rush to assumptions about who could be perpetrating high-end crimes.

          1. Doesn’t matter, what matters is the large number of crimes that can move south of the border by simply enforcing existing laws

    2. Listening to the radio yesterday (the John and Ken show) they were saying that the illegals in CA sent eight billion across the border last year. I looked it up, the remittances in 2015 were 25 billion nationwide. At ten percent that’s 250 million a year, easily would pay for the wall over 10 years

      1. Listen to music!

        Yes, it’s a huge outflow. From what I understand however, that’s the total sent to Mexico, not strictly from Illegals. Obviously it’s impossible to tell who is sending what beyond the aggregate amount, but there is a thinking (and it makes some sense to me) that the majority is from illegal immigrants.
        However, beyond those facts the rub is that it’s probably unimplementable. How do you know who is sending money, and how do you tax it. How do you avoid cash or checks in an envelope.

        1. Having been involved in both ends of the business, receiving and paying out, I can give you some suggestions but I doubt you want to hear it. It’s not a new concept, certainly not my idea, and has been floated around for decades. There actually is common sense legislation to deal with the enormous amount of cash you guys are talking about. The problem is, the only faculty equipped to deal with it properly is government, and we know how some of you feel about regulations. Easier to jabber on about a ridonkulous wall and having someone else pay for it than to just address the problem at its source.

  5. Well one thing we have in common. They think as little of Yasmani Grandal as I do. .234 avg and 19 homers. Obviously he did not impress them very much.

    1. Artieboy

      Wins with pitchers, don’t really mean much, because a pitcher’s wins, are determined, by the runs, a pitcher’s team, score, or don’t score.

  6. Projections are just that……..nothing concrete and most of them are so far off it is not funny. See the problem is this, they still have Ruf on there and Kike and Toles are long shots at this point to even make the team. Same with Thompson. Gonzo will rebound I predict, and Joc is going to hit better than in the .230’s. With more power than they give him credit for too. Ya put the hitters up twice and missed the pitchers there Scott……..that’s ok, we know it is not easy running a site.

    1. Michael

      I agree with you about Agone, because Agone has regressed a little one year, and came back, and had a better year, in the last few years.

      And also because after Agone came back, from having those three days off last year, he hit at the same rate, and had the same power numbers, that he has always had.

      But I don’t see Joc raising his average, because he will be facing more lefties, this year.

      And Joc has hit a 100 points lower against lefties.

      But I do think we need to see what he can do against lefties, this year.

      1. I think you are under estimating this kids desire to get better, and the fact that he is just a natural born ball player. He improved last year from his rookie year, and he will improve this year. Also, he has looked ok against LHP so far. And he is bound to improve……..250 avg, 35 HR’s and close to 100 ribbies……..go get em Joc.

        1. Michael

          Joc had one less HR last year, then the year before.

          And that is a good thing, because Joc’s average went up, and he cut back, on his strike outs.

          And I think Joc will improve this year,

          And I hope he can hit lefties this year, because he is a good defensive player.

          And kids shouldn’t be platooned.

          But he is not going to hit in more runs, then Agone, and Turner.

          And he would have to do that, to hit in close to one hundred runs, this year.

          And a few at bats, in spring training, doesn’t mean a thing.

  7. Apropos to nothing, I wonder if Package206 and Boxout7 are related?
    Just kidding, Package 206 is an OK guy. I knew him on Elysian Fields, a sadder blog than this one. The blogger puts up a new post when WordPress locks the comments, at some point after people quit commenting. The current post has been up 10 days, the last one was up for 15 days, the one before that up for a solid month. The current post has all of 33 comments after 10 days. They have maybe a half dozen faithful commenters, one of whom was a Nazi who abused Package something awful. Bumsrap also commented there occasionally. I left it because I got tired of helping Package fight the Nazi. The old geezer who owns the blog was afraid to discipline one of his few commenters. I lost all respect for him so I left. Someone should go there and rescue the few active commenters from a blog that’s dying on it’s feet.

    1. Jonah

      I have read that blog on occasion too.

      Because Bum mentioned that blog.

      Doesn’t that blogger your talking about, use a women’s basketball team, for there name?

      1. Roger suggested that blog to me when Timmons and his cabal were being abusive. I checked it out. Decided not to engage.

        Joc only had 77 at bats against lefties. Hit .125. The at bats I saw, which was most of them, he looked clueless. He needs a more intelligent approach and he needs experience. He’s older and hopefully more confident now, and with instruction and practice, there is no reason he can’t improve dramatically on .125.

        Squirrel? Squirrels is what squirrels does sir. And I think he will do what he did last year, only maybe less of it. Squirrel body made of peanut shells. Won’t hold up.

        1. Badger

          I do think Joc can hit better, because he does have the talent, to do it.

          I just wish he would realize how strong, he is.

          He doesn’t have to swing that hard, all the time.

          He barely swung, when he hit that oppo, in the post season.

          Maybe he will put it together this year.

          On the other thing, I hope they all go down

          1. Pederson will bat 250/350/450+ with 30 big flies. You heard it here, first. Some leadoff sprinkled in too!

          1. Glad to see you back, Melton. I disagreed with you but that shouldn’t bother you, you have as much right to your opinion as I do. Don’t get mad at people who disagree with you, and don’t expect them to change their minds to your way of thinking, no more than you’d change your mind to theirs. Have your say and drive on, tomorrow is another day.

    1. Almost? How about Melton instead?

      I think I’ll take fangraphs prediction on Puiderson – 45 home runs and 166 ribbies. In fact I’ll go one better – 46 and 167.

        1. I don’t know about Melvin but Melton is still alive and well. I know it’s kind of hard to tell, but……I cannot plagerize Johnny Winter

    2. Jonah

      He can be entertaining sometimes, when he isn’t, bothering Badger.

      We now have boots in Syria, so I thought about Boxout’s son, and I hope he won’t have to go anywhere.

      1. Special Ops in Syria? Not aware of the extent of boots on the ground. Training/advisory capacity? Mission? Where’s your 411 from? Anyways, what a disaster.

        1. What I read was they sent in a battalion of Marines, including Marine artillery. You don’t send Marines in to advise. They will have air support as well.

        2. Yeah, let the Russians “fix” Syria.

          My son is still in high school, but will graduate soon. He still wants to join National Guard I think.

  8. I think these projections are a load of crap. What is Ruf doing on the list when he’s now signed to play in Japan? Kike with over 200 at bats? Where? Oklahoma? Turner will be much better. Seager too. Any one of us on this blog could do better!

    1. Man, when you write for money, you have to put out a certain volume of crap every week, good or bad. But we don’t have to read it, and I don’t. Enjoy the games, talking about it is what kids do…

    2. EL. I couldn’t agree more, probably the same people that predicted Hillary would be President right now.
      And Jonah, thanks for the advice

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