When the Dodgers acquired slick fielding infielder Charlie Culberson from the free agent pool last winter, we all laughed a little. The 27-year old former Rockie was entering his fourth MLB season. Culberson had garnered 23 plate appearances for the Giants in 2012 before spending the next two seasons with Colorado. He was just the type of player that Andrew Friedman and his sidekick Farhan Zaidi loved. Culberson was cheap, versatile, and cost controlled. He was Friedman’s biggest wet dream.
Culberson played well for the Dodgers in 2016 as he was shuffled on and off the roster and played all over the diamond. Culberson batted .299 (20 for 67) while playing in 34 games. He saw time at shortstop, second base, third base, and left field. The plucky utility player provided the Dodgers what was perhaps the biggest hit of the season on September 25th, against his former club. The game also happened to be Vin Scully’s final home game at Dodger Stadium in front of a sellout crowd.
The Dodgers had to rally to get there first, and that was a pretty awesome turn of events. With the boys in blue trailing 2-1, and later 3-2, they scored three runs in the final three frames that tied the score, sending the game to extra innings. Corey Seager’s RBI triple, and game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth set the stage for Culberson’s division clinching blast.
It seemed as if Culberson’s shot, and the Dodger’s clinching their fourth consecutive NL west crown was a side story to Vin Scully’s final game at Dodger Stadium. Naturally it was an emotional finale at Chavez Ravine, and what turned out to be a perfect ending.
When the game went into the bottom of the tenth, we could all feel what was coming. We had no idea it would come from the most unlikely of players. With two outs in the tenth frame, Culberson swatted an 0-1 hanging slider over the low wall and into the seats in the left field corner, sending Dodger Stadium into pandemonium.
Not a bad way to end the home schedule. The Dodgers were going to clinch the division at some point. There was no way they could send Vin home with a loss in his last game at Dodger Stadium. Culberson assured the celebration would stay at home. This was the third best moment of the 2016 season.
332 thoughts on “Top 5 Dodger Moments of 2016: Charlie Culberson’s Division Clinching Blast”
I remember that. Cool moment. I also remember Finley’s blast in 2004. Then he hit .125 in the NLDS and was gone 5 minutes later.
What are the other 4?
It is always cool when a scrub does something great. Cookie Lavagetto breaking up Bivens no hitter in the series, Amoros’s great catch in 55….Chuck Essegian blasting 2 PH homers in 59. I love those kind of moments.
Good morning everyone, did anyone watch hot stove this morning? A comment by Harold Reynolds that caught my attention, he said he’s’ being told by a lot of players that they don’t want to come to LAD because they get platooned. They were talking about how well Dozier would fit. Could it be Dozier thinks that? I just think that comment was kind of unfair, I mean speaking of 2nd basebman, I believe Colton Wong was platooned during this past season wasn’t he, I guess what I’m trying to say is , it probably goes to every team , you don’t put up numbers youre going to get platooned . Not just LAD. what do you guys think.Great Day to everyone
Good morning everyone, did anyone watch hot stove this morning? A comment by Harold Reynolds that caught my attention, he said he’s’ being told by a lot of players that they don’t want to come to LAD because they get platooned. They were talking about how well Dozier would fit. Could it be Dozier thinks that? I just think that comment was kind of unfair, I mean speaking of 2nd basebman, I believe Colton Wong was platooned during this past season wasn’t he, I guess what I’m trying to say is , it probably goes to every team , you don’t put up numbers youre going to get platooned . Not just LAD. what do you guys think.Great Day to everyone
Mark, I’m very curious as to how you came into possession of a handgun, not to mention a carry permit? Swearing to a lie on Form 4473 is another felony, a Federal one. Curious minds want to know…
Why would I not be able to get one? Unless you are convicted felon, you can get one and I am not. You can’t vote if you are a felon either.
I did have to battle with the FBI for 6 months and in my final (and winning) appeal to them I wrote:
“The government violated my rights once and now you want to keep it up. It’s clear you have no argument. Quit messing with me.”
Usually if I buy a gun, I get approved on the spot, but last Christmas, I bought on for my wife and they made me wait 10 days. The FBI is dumber than a box of rocks. ATF on the other hand, is very sharp!
I’m interested in that book. I’ve heard about it for 15 years. Having read the Indiana State Supreme Court ruling on the appeal, I’m
anxious to see how you got out. (Unless of course that was a different Mark Timmons? )
“It’s clear you have no argument” isn’t exactly a compelling argument itself.
Any cases in lawbooks that are later overturned stay as historical record I am told. Mine was overturned back at the trial court level. The Supreme Court narrative was simply inaccurate, but you can either go to the Federal System to dispute it or back to the trial court.
I knew that I had to do it myself because no lawyer would accuse the Police, Judge and Prosecutor of perjury and lying. So I went back to the trail court and after a 5 day trial, the Prosecutor asked the Judge to overturn it.
When my daughter and I got back together 7 years ago, she asked me to stop writing the book and I did until now. She is now looking forward to it as well. There’s a movie coming too. My oldest son has the connections:
So, it was your wife that started all that?
Trial court appeal AFTER the state Supreme Court? We’ve been told it’s the other way.
It wasn’t police and the judge that lied. Not according to what I read. It was professional therapists that testified. Are you really willing to talk about all that here?
Personally I’ve been through two appeals. Once as the appellant and once as the respondent. I lost the one that I was the appellant of which I wasn’t guilty and won as the respondent where I testified I was guilty. But courts of appeals aren’t concerned with innocence or guilt, the higher courts rule if or if not the lower courts erred. Cases that set precedence are the cases that get published. Neither of my cases set precedence. I’ve been no angel…well maybe the dirty faced sort. But I don’t try selling myself with falsehoods. I am what I am and a lot more and a lot less. Everything I’ve ever read about me is not true. The victors are the writers of history.
I remember after we won this game and the division, the team went on, and lost a bunch of there next ten or eleven games.
This was highlighted by McCarthy coming into the game, and giving up five or six runs, and not being able to get a single out.
And I remember McCarthy saying, they were hitting him so violently.
But the team did come back and make our post season, better then it was the year before.
And it actually looked at the begining, that they had a chance against the Cubs, by winning two of the first three games.
Last year was an important year, because we found the right guy to manage the team, and quite a few of our young players, got even more post season, experience.
And that is why I want the team to get rid of either Kazmir or McCarthy, so that will allow another young pitcher, to be in the starting pitching rotation.
I especially don’t want to see Kazmir pitching anymore.
You can tell he doesn’t really want to be out there, because he looks like he is just going through the motions, when he is pitching.
But Urias should come back, and pitch even better.
I don’t think these platoon guys, Kike, Scott, and the other guys, will be enough to hit lefties.
And if we do get in the post season, you don’t want to have to field a platoon team, against every leftie starter we meet.
Like Scott has said, you go with your best players, in the post season.
We do need another big bat, but I am not sure who it should be, but I don’t think Dozier will be the bat we need.
If we are going to give up some of our good prospects, at least get a hitter that not only has decent power, but also can hit a solid 280 or above.
We don’t need another big swing and miss hitter, that strikes out a lot, and Dozier, is that type of hitter.
We need a hitter, that makes our offense, more productive.
Because these swing and miss hitters, don’t usually hit good pitching, and they don’t usually flourish, in the post season.
There are exceptions MJ. The player with the most career strikeouts is none other than Mr. October, Reggie Jackson with 2,597 strikeouts.
Here is the list of the top HR hitters in World Series history lifetime:
1. Mickey Mantle 18
2. Babe Ruth 15
3. Yogi Berra 12
4. Duke Snider 11
5. Lou Gehrig 10
6. Reggie Jackson 10
7. Joe DiMaggio 8
Bill Skowron 8
Frank Robinson 8
10. Gil McDougald 7
Hank Bauer 7
Goose Goslin 7
Chase Utley 7
Mr. October struck out 22.7% of his plate appearances in his career. Mantle 17.3% (1710 Ks lifetime). Snider 15% (1231 Ks lifetime). Ruth struck out 1330 times in his career (12.5%). Even Moose struck out 14.4%. The fact is that some hitters strike out a lot but can hit in the clutch and some hitters that rarely strike out can’t.
It’s like Adrian Gonzalez – he’s a good situational hitter and has been his whole career. Some guys aren’t. By the way, Gonzalez has struck out 17.4% of his plate appearances. Dozier – 19.4%.
Who cares about strikeouts when across the board all those 1-10 guys mentioned had .800+ OPS in clutch situations. I say that without looking, but I’m confident it’s true.
Have you took a look at the top five players on the Dodgers., for OPS?
Nope. Let me guess ~ Seager, Turner, Pederson, Gonzalez and Grandal.
Awesome Rick !
Once again these are exceptions, because most of these hitters, are all Hall of Famers.
And most of these players, hit for much better average in there career, then Dozier.
Are you saying that Dozier is a Hall of Famer?
See I can take it that far too.
And I still think Agone, is our best situational hitter, on the team.
He hit in more of a percentage of runs, with runners on base, then anyone else on the Dodgers, this last year.
And I have been one of his biggest supporters.
And Bum if I went by OPS, I would have to believe, that Joc is a better hitter, then everyone on the team, except Corey.
And I would have to also believe , that only Corey, Joc, and Turner, are better hitters then Grandal is, on the team.
And I don’t believe that.
And in Jackson’s prime, he did hit for a decent average, and there will always be exceptions.
The Yankees didn’t have two additional big swing and miss hitters, in there line up, like we do.
And we don’t need another
hitter like that.
Dozier did hit above 250, for the very first time in his career, last year.
But that isn’t saying much, because 250 is only average.
And we already have two hitters in our line up, that have a hard time making contact at times, and hitting for a decent average.
Look what Toles did for our line up, when he was playing.
He isn’t a power hitter, but he either got on base, or kept the offense going, most of the time.
It would be nice to get more power, but I think we do have quite a few hitters, that can hit the ball out, and win games that way.
You are getting ganged up on MJ. Might you soften your preference for contact hitters and appreciate OPS a little more?
Those are Hall of Famers, and there are not many Hall of Famers, so that is an exception!
All the other Dozier suitors seem to have lost interest. We can get him reasonably if we just hold firm. Then comes the question of whether we should have got him at all…
It is slow today.
But it is warmer here today, and that makes it better.
It won’t be long until January now.
Then spring training will be right around the corner.
I think our front office is probably trying to find someone else, to play second for us next year.
I don’t blame them.
The Twins are probably asking for to much.
And the front office probably knows that Dozier, is at his highest value right now.
Ya think? A career year of 42 homers usually will stir emotions and get people to act unreasonable.
BUT where have we seen this before. Hmmmm.
Didn’t Rich Hill just have his career year?
Didn’t Justin Turner just have his career year?
Didn’t Kenley Jansen just have his career year?
Well then FAZ’s algorithms must be emotional base and weigh heavily on what a player JUST DID. If the trend continues, Dozier will be a Dodger soon.
So much for vision!
Remember Dan Uggla?
Sure do. But he at least had 6 good seasons of a minimum of 27 HR’s and 82 RBI’s every year. Over that span he hit a total of 190 HR’s while earning a total of $24M. The last 4 years while receiving a total sum of $52M, he hit a whopping total of 45 HR’s.
LF Toles & Thompson
Dodgers rumored to be in the market to resign Joe Blanton.
For more then one year?
I’d take him. Use him more sparingly this time.
Line drive hitters can have a decent OPS. Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs. I’d rather have a lineup of those guys than a team of blind squirrels.
That is what I am saying, that we need more of.
There is a reason that hitters, that strike out a lot, and don’t hit for an average, get decent OPS.
And that is Because they don’t get penalized for striking out, if they get a lot of walks.
The problem is strike outs are unproductive outs, and walks are not equal to a hits.
Did you like Shirley Temple?
My grandpa was head bartender at the Bel Air Hotel. He used to serve me Shirley Temple’s. One day I was sitting there at the bar, wasn’t supposed to be, and Marshal Dillon walked in and sat down next to me. I didn’t realize it was him til he asked me what I was drinking. He was huge and his voice rattled my fillings. I like Shirley Temple’s.
We used to call them Davy Crockett’s if boys were drinking them. I loved those things. It is funny because these days I cannot stand 7 UP. I met John Russell of Lawman fame at the Coliseum during a game in 1959. Could not believe he was out there with us peons in the cheap seats.
Loved that show.
Never knew her. Never watched any of her little kid movies. Only movie I remember seeing her in was John Ford’s Fort Apache. She was good looking but so were thousands of other girls in Hollywood and the rest of the world.
Here are the Dodgers top OPS
Other then Corey and Turner, I don’t consider these players, to be the Dodgers best hitters.
This is why I think OPS isn’t all that.
Toles doesn’t count. Too small a sample.
Pederson and Grandal are thumpers who walk. I’d like to see them make better contact, and I think Pederson will. Squirrel won’t.
I have nothing to hide. I talk about it anywhere.
The Police and Judge and Prosecutor did lie… and were all caught in their lies. The nutjob therapist accused 24 other people of the same thing – all of our family, friends and neighbors, but they were never investigated and the Judge sealed the evidence so I could not see it. I got it at my re-trail. The Prosecutor said that he had never seen it and so I handed him a paper with his signature where he signed the file out and said: “Were you lying when you said you investigated the case or are you lying now?”
During the original trial I called him a liar in open court and he asked the judge to tape my mouth shut (he didn’t). So when I asked him the above question, I stated “I guess I was right when I called you a liar at the trail.” That statement went unchallenged by the new prosecutor.
It was my ex-wife in a divorce action. She has subsequently accused her parents and others of molesting her. My daughter and I are very close. No so much so with her mother now that she knows the truth. I am still good friends with my ex-brother in law who hates his sister. Me? Life is good! I never have a bad day!
Very unusual Mark. Therapists can lose a licence and be ruined for making stuff up. Wasn’t there multiple therapists in your case? Prosecutors and cops lie for a living and get away with it because it’s a closed circuit. They’re actually encouraged to lie. Prisons are a $50 billion business and growing. Gotta have those felony convictions to fill those beds. Therapists? Not in my experience. We are of course facing something similar, the difference being our son did indeed commit a crime – illegal discharge and reckless endangerment. Lying about events, and police testimony being considered evidence stacks the deck. Sounds to me like you got lucky.
Finish the damn book and distribute signed copies to all here. Then make a movie. I’ll audition for the nut job. Since that’s what you think of me I won’t disappoint.
I believe both of you!
And Badger, I can’t believe that your son, got that many years.
It is to bad that you and your wife doesn’t know someone who knows Obama.
Because he could help, before he is out of office.
He has been doing that, at the end of his office.
And a California politician’s son got off, or got a shorter sentence, and he killed someone.
… some sonofabitch raped a girl and got home detention!
1 therapist who testified under oath that in 1,100 plus cases of child abuse, she had never seen a false allegation. Then I asked her how she got paid. She said it was under a grant by the government. I then asked what would happen if she did not find abuse. Would she get paid.
Therapists can lose a licence and be ruined for making stuff up.
I still have the videos of her interrogations and the police interrogations. They were unbelieveable. The Judge would not let the jury see them because:
1. They really show how you never interview a child; and
2. They could never get her to say that anything happened.
When I got my hands on the tapes, I sent them to one of the leading experts in the country on interviewing children. She was so outraged she flew in and testified for free for me. I thank her every August 31st!
By the way, did I mention that the Prosecutor and Judge were best friends and political allies with my biggest business competitor whom I used to work for before I left and started my own business? Did I mention there is a murder involved?
I wish I could help you on your step-son. Prison is not a place you ever want to be. I spent 7 years, 5 months and 5 days inside the walls. I did it one day at a time. I knew I wasn’t guilty and always thought I would get out the next day. I can’t imagine how you could handle it otherwise. I am a big support of http://www.innocenceproject.org/about/
Very interesting story. As some wiser than myself have said before, there are 3 sides to every story, his, hers and the truth which usually lies somewhere between his and her stories. That being said I definitely can envision a manipulating wife/mother/female creating such a plot and acquiring professional support/documentation without proper due diligence. l definitely respect your narrative of what took place and it does seem very logical and possible. Without knowing everything that you endured, am pleased to hear that you were able to prove your innocence. But I must ask, were you arrogant and narcissistic prior to this humbling experience?
Since people who know me know that I am nor narcissistic, and I have only heard that here, I will chalk it up to being ill informed.
Arrogant? No! Confident? Yes!
It’s not an ill informed perception. Being confident, yet respectful is usually an observed behavior. We here can only judge you and form impressions of you based on your words used and stated responses to those that disagree with you. And in most cases you respond in the same manner that someone who is very narcissistic would. Again, my perception but others feel that way as well. That being said, I do have respect for what you had to overcome as I can’t imagine how that must have felt. Thankfully you were mentally strong enough to endure and overcome. My book would be titled, ‘A Man, the System and a Dead Ex’ as one of my brothers would have taken her out.
I have a difficult time believing a mother would put her own child through this as an instrument to get back at a husband. Sure, they will lie their asses off to de-ball you, but they don’t t usually do something like this. My ex-wife sabatoged my relationship with my daughter with lies, but even that harridan wouldn’t do something this sick. And to think multiple child protective professionals were also in on it? And the State Supreme Court heard all the evidence and upheld the decision? You are damn lucky to get out of that vice. Like I said, once they have you in this country, they don’t easily let go. We incarcerate for the money. Lots of money. It’s an enormous industry now. Guilt or innocence has nothing to do with it.
My trial attorney’s hands were tied. We are still friends.
My appeal attorney thought it was a slam dunk and did not raise any malfeasance issues.
Our terrible president is not only trying to screw up this country, but he is also trying to screw up the prison business. What a dirty rat. Mr. Dirt himself. Go Dodgers
There is more than one way to skin a cat. Big bombers can do it – so can line drive hitters. I’d take any of Badger’s guys – Carew, Boggs & Gwynn – all Hall of Fames who hit close to .400 and lifetime BA – Carew .328, Boggs .328. Gwynn .338. If you can hit, you can hit.
One of the reasons I think that Steve Garvey is underrated. Players should be evaluated by the criteria of the game the way it was played during the player’s career. He had 6 years with 200+ hits, 10 All Star game appearances, an MVP, 4 Gold Gloves, a post-season BA of .338 with 11 post-season HRs, 31 post-season RBI in 55 games, etc. He was a good clutch performer.
I agree about Garvey, but he was about as popular as Cobb. Maybe in time.
I like guys who are professional hitters. Those guys like Gwynn and Carew, Boggs and Brett, they were fun to watch. I liked them I guess because they were more like me – hit a line drive somewhere and get your ass to second. I also like guys who can score from first on a single and score from second on sac fly. You don’t see that much anymore and you sure don’t see anyone pushing .400. Relief specialists are making sure that will never happen. Different game now. 5 inning starters and platoons.
Those guys aren’t professional hitters, they were whatever is next higher, they were ungodly.
It is to bad that in baseball today, they don’t emphasis these type of hitters
And Ted Williams not only hit well, he hit with power too.
Garvey might still
They are talking now about assessing a player, on five or six good years, when
that player, was at the top of there game.
Garvey might fall under that, and they have mentioned Mattingly too.
Some people think there isn’t enough players in the hall of fame, from the 70s and the 80s.
Maybe, but he is like Valenzuela to me, a good but not HOF worthy player. He did win an MVP, but never had that big career HR total that you expect by a 1st baseman. And MJ, good players do not belong in the hall. Great players do, or players who were pioneers, like Jackie Robinson.
Some but not all of the 22 Hall of Famers at 1B were sluggers. George Sisler hit 102 HR but has a lifetime BA of .340 (a different era, I know). Bill Terry – 154 HR. George “High Pockets” Kelly – 148 HR. Frank Chance – 20 HR. Etc. Not all 1B in the Hall were sluggers.
The point is that Garvey was an All Star 10 times and played in the World Series 5 times – he was good enough that he even got the Pads there in 1985 which is a miracle if you think about it.
Just one little error Counselor. Garvey and the Pods outlasted Cey and the Cubbies in the 1984 NLCS. 1985 was Jack Clark 🙁
Most of those guys you cited played in the dead ball era except Terry. They may not have been home run hitters, but they drove in runs and were clutch hitters for sure. Chance was probably the best 1st baseman of his era. Garvey was a very good player….so was Fred McGriff. But hall worthy? That’s questionable. Same with Valenzuela. He was an icon in LA and a very good pitcher who started Fernandomania. But being very good is not good enough. I actually questioned the election of Bill Mazerowski, who, outside of hitting a HR to win the 1960 world series, was very good defensively, but not a great hitter…..
You got that right!
Dodgers’ website shows Turner on the 40 man roster now that the team has announced his signing – not Jansen. While they have done the deal it isn’t yet official. With Turner signed they have 40 on the 40 man so when Jansen is signed they have to DFA or trade someone. Suspect they are delaying announcing Jansen because they have a deal cooking that will reduce the number on the 40 man without the need for a DFA?
That is what the guys on the Dodger program said last week.
You’re O so right Badger… They owned the dish and were professors of the game… I remember watching Brett lay down a perfect bunt when the 3B was a little too deep. Another artist was Oliva…
P.S. I wonder if MT will cast AGon as head of the FBI in his movie… Of course we all know Grandal will be head of the ATF…
It was fun to watch Brett hit, and beat the Yankees.
Did you mean Grandal for Head of the DEA?
Anthony Hopkins to play Mark?
Lol….Amber Heard as the Ex.
I’ll sing and play the piano
Jeff Kent in HOF??? Don’t start bubbling from the sides of your mouth now, check the numbers…
I’d put him in. Lifetime BA of .290, OPS lifetime .855, 377 career HR, 8 times over 100 RBI.
Kent has more HR than any 2B in history and the only 2B in the Hall of Fame with a higher OPS are Rogers Hornsby (1.011!), Jackie Robinson (.883) and Charlie Gehringer (.884).
Scott I’m glad you brought up Seager’s heroics in that game. Without them Culberson doesn’t even get a chance. If that was #3, looks like I missed 4 and 5.
Culberson’s HR was big, but that shorthop he made in Game 5 at Wash on the bounce throw from Grandal to 2b which got the runner trying to steal may have saved that game for us.
I wouldn’t cry if he were our 2b with Calhoun for 2017; at least he provides excellent defense at 2b. He’s one of those gamer types which we do love having on our team. Good pickup by the smart guys.
Taylor is like that as well but with much more speed.
MJ, I have said this before that Joc’s OPS is higher than Agons not so much because he is a better hitter but more because he had much fewer at bats against lefty pitchers. We would have to look at their splits against righties to compare their OPS fairly.
That said, I think Joc will get 550+ plate appearances in 2017 which will be about the same as Agon will get and then we will see who will have the best OPS.
Also two doubles in 4 at bats generates a higher OPS than does 1 home run in 4 at bats.
Good points Bum.
550+? I hope so, but knowing how FAZ thinks I doubt it. I think he needs more AB’s agsinst LH pitching if he’s to be an everyday player. It’s only in special cases, Seager, that a young Dodger will be in the lineup every day. I don’t know they view Pederson in that light.
We need something to happen.
It isn’t a knock, Joc is still learning to hit.
And he still has a lot of trouble, against righties too.
He didn’t have that many at bats against lefties, and his average is still pretty low.
And I do have high hopes for him this year.
And we will see what he learned.
Look at Grandal’s OPS, he is not a good hitter yet.
And he has a good OPS too.
There is something about walks and strike outs, that cause this.
MJ, Juan Pierre types have a high batting average but low OBP because they don’t get walks. They don’t get walks because pitchers would rather groove pitches to them because they don’t worry about them hitting home runs.
Players that get walks do so partly because they have a good eye, partly because they swing and miss pitches that others hit into outs, and partly because pitchers are worried about getting too much of the strike zone and get hit hard.
I prefer OBP over AVE and will gladly take the home runs over minimizing strike outs. Strike outs can’t be hit into double plays.
I like OBP too. Many guys don’t get a lot of walks because they are good enough to put the ball in play when they swing at it. Punish strikes and you will get fewer of them. Lay off balls and you will get more walks. It is a science, but it isn’t upper division physics. It continues to drive me nuts to watch guys like Kemp and Puig not able to recognize spin and continue to chase down and away breaking balls. The book on them is high and tight, low and away. The problem is, they don’t read the book. The solution is, read the f’n book! Take the walk Yassie. You do that and your OPS will remain over .800 for the next 10 years and you will be legend.
And they would get better pitches to hit, if they lay off those outside sliders.
That kind of player has to have a good OBA.
I am not saying we need a slap hitter for lefties.
I am just saying we need a good over all hitter, with power.
And there are players like that.
I can handle Joc and Grandal.
Joc is still learning how to hit, and Grandal has a lot more responsibilities.
They both need to bring there averages up.
I just don’t think we need another hitter like this, in our line up.
We need a more productive line up.
And by the way, Toles had a good OBA.
And I think he has more pop,
then some think.
We only know with him, if he plays more.
Anyone rather have a strike out then a double play, but if someone is good at making contact, they can try to avoid that.
Think about some of those dingers , that the Giants get just right over our infield, to hit a run in.
MJ, I didn’t read into your comments any knocks about anybody. I am just trying to talk you into liking OPS more than you do now. I think one of the things you don’t like about OPS is that you see players that have a higher OPS than players that you think are better hitters. That is why I said to look at their splits.
The good thing about OPS is that it includes OBP and hits have more influence on OBP than do walks because players get more hits than they do walks. Building pitch counts on pitchers and getting hitters more looks at pitchers by not making outs is productive. You seem to leave that our of your calculus when you say a ball in play has a better chance of making something happen than does a strike out.
I was with you until that last sentence. As a coach and player I always taught and played to “put the ball in play”. First rule of course is get a good pitch to hit. That’s been true since Cap Anson was in grade school. I’ve never liked strike outs but guys that are 6’4″ 250 with bat speed were very rare birds when I played and coached. Most baseball players were average sized guys, and you coached them to play solid fundamentals on offense and defense. Fundamentals include make solid contact with strikes. Now the game values blind squirrels (6’1″ 235 pounds) but the basic rules of hitting still apply – don’t swing at ANYTHING out of the strike zone and punish strikes. Squirrel and Joc have good batting eyes, and that’s what allows them to hit .230 but have an OPS over .800. If Puig could follow their lead he would hit .280 with an OPS well over .800 because his swing and miss rate would drop considerably by not chasing breaking balls he couldn’t hit with a 42″ bat. I think he is more a natural hitter than Joc or Squirrel, he’s just undisciplined. My opinion.
Like I said, because saber metrics count a strike out as any other out, and they count a walk the same as a hit, certain hitters OPS looks better, because of this, not every hitter.
A hitter needs to be able to put a ball in play.
That is how some teams pick up runs, with a productive offense.
And especially against a good pitcher or in a close game.
We are talking in circles. I don’t like to see a player strike out. That is why I prefer to have the DH. But, if a hitter swings and misses a pitch they will get another pitch if it isn’t #3. A hitter that makes good contact will statistically more likely hit into an out.
So, a hitter that has more swing and miss will see more pitches and thus make the pitcher work more and is more likely to get a walk which will allow at least one more hitter to hit in that same inning which keeps a rally going and run up pitch counts. Add an ability to hit doubles and home runs and the big swinger does more than a contact hitter that gets 40 – 60 RBI.
There are hidden less obvious advantages to a strike out as compared to mere contact. Yes, one never knows what might happen with a ball put in play but 75% of the time that ball in play will be at least one out.
I was always glad to see Ryan Howard come to bat with 2 on and 2 outs because he would probably strike out. I, like you, feared a hitter like Utley in that situation because he was less likely to strike out. But mid game with say one out and one on I feared Ryan Howard more than Utley.
Too bad they traded Hendrick, or should I say dumped? He just seemed like a professional hitter. We’re going to miss him. Seems like we need a professional hitter to play second base.
Make that Kendrick if you’re speaking of Howie.
“Hey Doc, I think I may have overdosed on my pain medication”
“Ah, you’ll be fine. Have a couple of drinks and call me in the morning,”
What is that funny line in that movie when he went to school?
It was hilarious!
When that professor yelled at him.
Don’t know, the movie didn’t make that much of an impression on me. Maybe this will remind you…
It was called Back to School.
There was only one scene that was really funny.
Sam Kinison played one of his professors, and his scene with Dangerfield is funny.
It is one of those movies that you can watch with friends and talk and still can fellow the movie.
I probably saw that, in my early twentys with friends, and we were drinking beers, and watching that movie.
I am not surprised it wasn’t a movie you liked.
It was a B movie I believe.
But like I said that comedian Sam Kinison, was funny in that scene.
When Howie was signed, he was told he wouldn’t be the full time second base men.
He was told he would have to fill in at different positions.
And he came to spring training out of shape, and he was out on the DL twice during that time, so he wasn’t ready to play, for at least the first couple weeks of the begining of the season.
And when he was healthy, he didn’t hit for almost two months or more, but Roberts kept him in the line up.
And I don’t think he started hitting until June, and he got hot in July, but after that, he didn’t do much.
But when he wasn’t played over Toles who was hitting, he complained to Roberts, so that is why he was traded.
And Howie was doing this just before the post season.
And he didn’t want to play second when he played in the post season, but he and his arm were a liability in leftfield.
Howie never really adjusted his throws in the outfield.
He throw like he was in the infield, so runners ran on him.
He wanted to be traded too.
Lives there a man with soul so dead,
that never to himself hath said,
“Hey, a little life here, people,
let’s get it going….”
It is 71 today, and the high will be 74!
48 now, high 54. Wanna trade?
What good is it to live in the desert, if it isn’t hot?
I like your new avatar, as long as you know you, are respected.
I saw Kendrick in Spring Training, and he didn’t look out of shape to me. The injury in the spring did set him back, and he never got going last year. This was still no reason to dump him so soon after the season was over and before all this second base talk. My guess is that the suits did not think his defensive skills at second were good enough to keep him around even with no one to replace him. Don’t forget, Utley is still around and is an easy go-to, one year back stop. What do you guys think: Utley or Culberson?
Utley is a longshot. But he is definitely one of the backup plans and they have some interest. I think if they do not trade for a 2nd baseman, he will get some play. They would have to move someone off the roster for Charlie to make the team since he was out righted to AAA. Taylor would be ahead of Charlie on the depth chart, but I like Culberson better as a utility guy than Hernandez.
Culberson out hit all of them average wise against lefties.
He went on the DL twice,
in spring training.
And that doesn’t sound like he was in top shape.
And when no team would sign him, the Dodgers signed him, and he was told then, he wouldn’t be the full time second baseman.
So why was Howie complaining about playing time?
Complaining about playing time right before the post season, and during the post season, is not being a team player.
Roberts was trying to win, and he shouldn’t have to listen to complaints.
Roberts and the front office , didn’t want to deal with him, and Howie wanted to be traded, so he could play everyday.
I like Taylor as the in-house 2nd baseman. If Utley were to take a mere million dollars then maybe he could contribute for part of the season.
Interesting little story on yardbarker this morning. They projected the Dodger 25 man roster. 5 outfielders, Toles, Ethier, Pederson, Puig and Thompson. 2 utility players, Segedin and Hernandez. 4 infielders, Seager, Gonzo, Utley and Turner, 2 catchers, Barnes and Grandal…5 starters, Kershaw, Maeda, Hill, Urias and Alex Wood. 7 in the pen Jansen, Hatcher, Baez, Stripling, Fields, Dayton and Liberatore. …They project that SVS will get traded, They believe that both Kazmir and McCarthy, if not traded will begin the year in a re-hab situation. Same with Ryu….all the youngsters will be in the minors.
I don’t know about Segedin being an utility player, but what they predicted about Kazmir and McCarthy, might be right.
Segedin is more a backup anyway. But he can play 1st and 3rd,and had a game or two in the OF last year. He is not going to unseat either Gonzo or Turner, but is a reasonable backup for both, there fore he is a utility guy. They also predicted SVS would be traded…..
We haven’t heard any recent injury reports on Kazmir or McCarthy, and we won’t be hearing any, because they want to trade them.
Bobby, I think the main reason Kendrik was trade was because of his attitude. Somebody was complaining about playing time. I think it was Kendrick.
Norris, the 25 man roster looks reasonable to me. I think Calhoun, Johnson and Kike will be given a chance to make it at second this spring. Ryu, Kasmir, and McCarthy have to prove they are healthy. The youngsters will be waiting, if a starter fails or if a bullpen pitcher struggles. If you are a pitcher on the Dodger 25 man roster, you better be ready when the season starts.
Kendrick complained in house about not playing 2nd in the playoffs. He has always been professional in every thing he has done, and he was probably disappointed to not be the guy at 2nd. But he was slumping at that time so Utley got the nod. As far as the trade goes, they wanted to go in a different direction and I think they were thinking of a younger guy there all along, so they gave Howie an opportunity to play every day in Philly. I was not surprised at all he was traded. I am a little surprised that yardbarker did not mention Ruf at all in their evaluation of the Dodger 25 man roster.
What does Ruf’s rap sheet look like? I’ve never heard of him before the Dodgers acquired him…
.240 career hitter with 36 homers and 96 ribbies in parts of 4 seasons with the Phils. Mashes lefty’s according to his stats. Basically another SVS. Big guy, not much glove skill. 1st baseman – OF.
I really can’t see any future for him. That’s probably what the Phillies were thinking. That FAZ is sure a sharp trader….
Debbie Renolds died the day after her daughter died.
I read that right about the time it happened. She was 84. Good actress….
Howie was given the option of playing LF or 2B in game one of NLCS and he chose LF which cost us a run. His belly aching began when Toles and Reddick were getting the starts and he was sitting on the bench or getting one or two AB’s in a game due to platooning, double-switching, etc.
I think Ruf has an excellent shot at making the team.
SVS will be “depth” or get traded.
From Jon Heyman (who has been known to get it very right or very wrong):
It’s no surprise that some suggest the Dodgers are being “stingy” with their top prospects in talks for veteran players, as LA values their top minor leaguers high. They made the right calls to keep NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager and lefty phenom Julio Urias. But they are willing to part with righty Jose De Leon for Dozier. They are not willing to include top first base prospect Cody Bellinger or top young pitchers Walker Buehler or Yadier Alvarez along with De Leon.
I don’t know how you made it through that.
I am so claustrophobic, I would have never made it through that.
I am sorry you had to go through that!
They say that everything happens for a reason, but I can’t see much of a reason for what you went through.
But I am glad you and your daughter are great now.
I am blessed. I think the biggest thing is that I never lost hope… even in my darkest days. I always believed and that’s what made all the difference.
My son-in-law (daughter’s husband), said “I would have killed the bitch.” He’s not a fan either.
That took some of your youth too.
It’s ancient history.
History is like gravity.
It’s good to know…
but it can hold you down.
So I moved on!
Hey old guys, do you remember Red Smartt? A 50’s guy often seen on KTLA.
For his career, Ruf has a .299 BA with a .379 OB% and has hit 17 HR isn 271 ABs. His career OPS is .921 against LH pitching. I can see a platoon with A-Gon.
Ruf is another over 30 guy that will not see any at bats against RH pitching. Unless he has an outstanding Spring, he probably won’t make the team. Projections don’t think he will, AGon plays 150 games. Squirrel will spell him on occasion.
I haven’t been able to comment since before Christmas I think. If not, I hope everyone had an enjoyable Christmas and we all look forward to a new and better 2017.
The week between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Day is very hectic for me and my family: Christmas then my birthday 74yo(tomorrow) and 53rd wedding anniversary also tomorrow.
As a native New Yorker, I needed my parents signature to get married and took a 30 day leave from overseas to do it. It’s been a blast ever since.
The secret of a long marriage? NEVER go to bed angry and the last words of the night MUST BE “I LOVE YOU”.
I hope you have a nice birthday, and anniversary tomorrow.
Wish your wife happy anniversary too!
Thank you I will
Good advice. I have done 45 years and sometimes the last thing I hear has something to do with my hands being cold.
Projections are what desperate baseball junkies read in the offseason. You can find them in the library under “Fiction.”
Here’s what Fangraphs projects:
Kike has 16 HR and 67 RBI.
A-Gon has only 68 RBI.
Squirrel don’t project well, but Puig does.
It’s not fiction, it’s math. They figure that stuff out with algorithms.
Fangraphs predicted this last year:
Puig: 38 doubles/20 HR/87 RBI
Grandal: 14 HR/50 RBI
Turner: 9 HR/44 RBI
Seager: 20 HR/87 RBI
A-Gon: 2 HR/97 RBI
A monkey throwing darts is more accurate.
Kike = 57 RBI and 68 runs. Also a sub 700 OPS and a 1.5 WAR with 16HR and 566 PA
Agon = 77 RBI
At least that is how I read the table.
Take aim Bubbles.
Don’t know what kind of math they use but they list several guys there that go 0 for 1 and every one of them has a batting average over .200. Some of them without a hit are projected to have a better batting average than Squirrel. That’s some interesting math.
It seems like only a couple of years ago we were watching Joc and Puig showing promise in AA and now they are being counted on to anchor the outfield and be key parts of the offense. I don’t see anywhere that Toles and Thompson have been hyped. Verdugo has been hyped some.
Ethier might get more playing time than I was thinking he would.
According to that fangraphs site there are a lot of outfielders that will be getting at bats next year. 162 platoons will accomplish that. Verdugo is one of the guys that is projected to get no hits and have a higher average than The Blind Squirrel. That would be something to see…… but obviously the Squirrel wouldn’t see it……
I think that the Dodgers will stick to their guns and eventually trade for Dozier.
I think it will look like this:
Jose De Leon, Chase De Jong, Enrique Hernandez and Micah Johnson for Dozier!
… and I’m OK with that!
you are, but I do not think the Twins are.
Hopefully that is all the Twins are going to get.
Works for me.
I listened to others suggestions:
1. Toles LF
2. Puig RF
3. Seager SS
4. Turner 3B
5. Gonzo 1B
6. Dozier 2B
7. Grandal C
8. Pederson CF
That is a powerful lineup. 7 players are capable of hitting 20+ HR.
Ethier, Segedin, Taylor, Thompson, Ruf
I liked De Leon, but I like Buehler and Alvarez better…. so do the Dodgers.
If you form an opinion about Ryu, McCarthy and Kazmir NOW you are either psychic or psychotic! No Clue, I have!
Squirrel only gonna play 100 or less. Who’s your backup?
Will Austin Barnes, 27, ever get a job in the bigs?
Mark, why do you show us projections and then ignore those projections? You keep putting Joc in the 8th spot when he projects to be the third best hitter next year. Toles is not projecting all that well and yet you put him at lead off. Speed works at the bottom of the lineup too and if OBP is low, speed is less valuable.
Take a look at Toles oba last year at the major league level!
But it was dropping as pitchers threw him more sliders into his back foot.
How can I take that serious, when he was sitting on the bench more then playing?
I see where people use his September stats against him, but he wasn’t playing everyday, and when he did play almost everyday, he did deliver.
I know there are a few hitters that can hit in those circumstances,but that is rare.
And that is another reason why that platoon team for leftie pitchers, is not the right thing to do.
These part time players, and AAAA players, are not these type of hitters, so they ranked last an offense, in all of baseball.
Joc had trouble with those too, and this was his second full year.
Even though I don’t want Dozier, that isn’t a bad line up.
And I think everyone wishes that Ryu can pitch again, like he did his first couple years with the team.
I heard he is going to come back and pitch with his right arm, after all he is really right handed.
And Kenley is actually left-handed!
But he has far less miles on his arm!
But I guess you know I was joking, so that is a good thing.
Did you like Debbie Reynolds?
I thought she was really funny.
A friend and I, thought about going to see her show, when she use to own that little casino in Vegas.
She did pretty good imitations, of different celebs.
SVS and Hernandez both traded? Did you see what the fangraphs monkey projected for Hernandez? It would appear they think he’s going to play a lot and play a lot better. In Minnesota?
I agree with Michael that the Twins want more for Dozier. They are expecting to trade high, that’s why it isn’t done yet. I got a feeling Johnson isn’t worth much.
Not crazy about that bench. I don’t know I have a better one though.
I believe most of us have already formed opinions on Ryu, McCarthy and Kazmir. The opinions aren’t based on being psychic.
My gut says SVS will be a Dodger next year. Hernandez? 50-50.
And Bum was right about Crawford too!
Isn’t using your common sense psychic?
A mixture of common sense and quieting the brain.
I found this interesting:
According to them, our leadoff guy is our #8 prospect, below Calhoun, and Willie has lost an inch in height, but put on 13 pounds. I think it’s all in his legs.
Thanks Badger. Great link.
That link reinforced my belief that White and Barnes will soon share catching duties no later than 2019.
I think Verdugo is the in-house favorite to replace Puig in 2018 with Ethier playing RF in 2017 if Puig is traded but if Puig is not traded, I think Verdugo will be.
If you are talking about Toles, I read that he isn’t considered a prospect anymore.
Because he isn’t considered a rookie anymore, because of the time he put in at the major league level.
That is your best answer yet!
This was the Twins 2016 DH: http://m.mlb.com/player/666560/byungho-park
Calhoun would do better than that and play some second base.
De Leon and Calhoun for Dozier.
I just read that Puig is in the DR, and he is working on his hitting, with Manny Mota.
Maybe there is hope!
And working with Manny’s foundation and his Wild Horse Foundation to help people there.
What is wrong with that?
It’s all great!
I am just being facetious.
Manny’s the best !!!
Even if JDL was traded straight across for Dozier the Twins get the better of that deal. IMO JDL severely under valued by many fans and some experts. The rest of MLB seem upset that the Dodgers on going charitable organization is now dissolved.
It’s obviously going to take more than JDL and, in my opinion, it rightly should.
I know that this will drive Mark crazy, but Freudy is back with a final post:
The Hot Stove League isn’t wrapped up and I expect that the Dodgers will make a couple more moves before pitchers and catchers report, but here are a couple of Freudy’s trenchant thoughts:
” The idea, if you look around baseball during this Hot Stove season, is to improve. The Dodgers have not improved. The rotation is still spotty, the lineup can’t hit left-handers, the pen is one deep, etc.” The point here is that what the Dodgers have done is to re-sign their own free agents – they haven’t improved by player acquisition thus far although I expect that some of the young pitchers (like Julio Urias) will be better by dint of experience and exposure to the league.
” I’d say the Dodgers need a real #2 starting pitcher but I guess that can wait until July. Rich Hill, they believe, is that #2, but like Scott Kazmir, a guy who was pitching in independent baseball not long ago and you end up there for a reason.” I think that Hill is plenty effective but doubt that the team will get more out of him than he pitched last year – between LA and Oak he had 20 starts and 110 innings. Anyone think that the will do better than that? It’s the second most he has thrown in his career. And if Hill is out who will play #2 to Kershaw’s #1?
Just food for thought.
That’s why I say it’s the pitching. For the Dodgers to win a pennant they need 3 things, pitching, more pitching and even more pitching. And some defense. Oh, that makes 4 things. That’s why I think it’s silly to trade a great prospect like JDL.
It’s exactly what some of us have been saying for some time now. He’s just more articulate. And trenchant. Acidulous. Piquant.
At any rate, I think he’s right about many things. I’m not willing to go as far he does with personal attacks on FAZ. I don’t think they’re as rattlepated as he does, I just believe they are hoping for a miracle while working a 5 year plan.
A lot of that article, sounds like a lot of people here, including Mark!
All quiet on the baseball front, except for a few signing finalizations and Mike Trout buying the entire Philadelphia Eagles team new shoes. Guess he is a huge Eagles fan. I expect some action maybe next week after the New Years celebration. Lots of speculation though as to where guys like Mike Wieters and Joey Bats wind up. Dodgers need to make a roster move before making Jansen’s deal final. I am not going to speculate on what the opening day roster will look like. But I would guarantee it is a lot different than last year. I say to hell with it and give Calhoun a real shot at the 2nd base job. Trade both Hernandez and SVS for a solid relief guy and go from there. Ruf and SVS are interchangeable, and Culberson is as versatile as Kike, so make a deal….and a very Happy New Year to all…….
Back at you Bear!
I was thinking the exact same thing about Ruf and SVS Bear. Both are big RH hitters. SVS may have more trade interest. Or not, who knows. Hernandez hit .300 for Mattingly, maybe Donnie would take him. Hernandez + for Phelps or Wittgren or ….. whoever. I don’t know those guys.
Someone on MLB Network said that Ruf’s stats against lefties, hasn’t been that great in recent years.
As I remember MJ, Ruf lost time at first base and was forced to play outfield and that combined with few at bats cost his stats to plummet.
Thanks did he just play against lefties?
I think Ruf is redundant to SVS but if SVS were traded, I think Ruf would do a good job resting Agon against lefties.
Kike’ for Gordon and I will toss in McCarthy and pay his salary as a sweetner 😉 Hatcher as well. I think we need Barnes though.
Van Slyke is a much better defender than Ruf. Ruf is a slow plodding-type – really just a 1B. (He’s listed at 6’3″, 250#. Also, Ruf’s major league numbers not that good. He barely played on a bad Phillies team last year.
2016 -.203, 3 HR, .573 OPS in 83 AB
2015 – .235, 12 HR, .714 OPS in 286 AB
Total WAR in parts of 5 seasons – minus 1 (if you believe in WAR).
Would rather keep Van Slyke, dump Ruf. Ruf was to be heir apparent to Ryan Howard at 1B but wasn’t good enough to keep the job.
2013 Ruf had 181 at bats against lefties and posted a slash line of .269 .363 .500 .863
Things went down hill thereafter. But he if used exclusively at first base and given enough at bats against lefties, he might again pu up .800+ OPS
SVS on the other hand has more flexibility on defense and hits righties better.
I’ll say it again, unless Ruf goes nuts in ST, I don’t see him on this team. Neither he nor Sweeney, both picked up in the Kendrick trade,figure into any plans. Kendrick was a giveaway.
I agree totally Badger…the guy is depth and nothing else.
If Ruf makes it, then it means this front office is so far down the platoon road that it might be scary.
Clearly both SVS and Ruf won’t be on the team. The Kendrick trade saved the Dodgers his $10M salary.
I think there is too small a sample to consider Toles as a lead off hitter. He is more of a contact hitter than a power guy, but I need to see him do it consistently in ST before I just hand him the job. Trouble is there are not a lot of options to fill this role on the roster. Reminds me of how the roster was before they got Brett Butler. Of course they could activate Dave Roberts…..he was pretty good in that role.
I like Bums idea of Dozier for De Leon and Calhoun. I think I saw Willie’s tree trunks in Muir Woods last year! Dozier will be solid, if not spectacular. On the other hand, if Kike can come back, JDL is Andrew Miller to me.
This just in: Dodger Therapy guy is back in his cell and all is good. Sorry for the inconvenience! What a moron, but the good news is they have medication…
I would anoint Toles as the leadoff hitter and tell him it’s his job to lose. Going from A to AA to AAA and to the Majors in one season did not seem to faze him. Let him roll with it… until further notice!
I think Ruf has an opportunity to be a lefty killer as A-Gon’s backup. Yes, he can’t play anywhere but 1B, but we don’t need him to. Give him 150-180 AB’s. I like his chances…
For leadoff I would pull names out of a hat. Toles won’t hit .333 OBP at leadoff.
So you would trade Andrew Miller and your #4 prospect for Dozier? I wouldn’t. I still say Dozier peaked. He hit 5.9 WAR last year. He’s projected at 3.0 WAR next year. What would his projected 2 year WAR be? What will De Leon and Calhoun’s be over the lifetime of their team controlled years? I say they are more important to our future than two years of Dozier.
This is a big year for Willie Calhoun. I want to keep him just to see what he does. I also think this is the year De Leon steps up. He will force the Dodgers to make room for him. I also believe Bellinger is going to destroy AAA pitching and Buehler will do what he needs to do to be prepared for 2018. Big year for Blue development. Don’t mess with it.
I don’t go after Dozier, but we need someone to help with lefties, and that isn’t Kike.
And the rest of the players , are not going to hit well enough against lefties.
Last in offense against lefties is bad, and part time players, that hit that badly last year, are not going to turn the corner, and hit lefties this year, with there few at bats.
I don’t know what is out there, but we need someone, if not at second, somewhere else.
And I agree Mark, Toles deserves a chance, just for the way he hit in the post season.
How many players hit like he did, and started in A ball?
Good pitching always beats good hitting. Mark that down put it on your mirror so you read it every morning. Trade a left fielder for second baseman not a pitcher. Especially one with JDL’s potential. A guy that can make the team as a pitcher for 3-5 years. How long do you think Dozier might last. Let me answer that.,…. the end of his current contract. Let me emphasize, might. If you want to harvest the crop of young Talent then trade for other young Talent that fits our needs, as in I will trade you my number four Prospect who is a picture for your number 4 Prospect who is a second baseman or something along those lines
It’s just that I was reading whereas other teams think we are being stingy with our prospects, I think that maybe we should look at prospects for prospects. Maybe we should just roll with it this year. No team is perfect. Not even baseball prospectus’s Wrigleyville which makes me want to barf.
I’m on the other side of it. If you can trade prospects for impact players you do it. You don’t get absurd and trade tons of ’em.
But you trade prospects for an impact pitcher.
You trade prospects for an impact 2B.
Anytime you trade a prospect or trade for a prospect, you might be trading away or for a Pedro Martinez.
Dozier has gotten better every year for the last 4 years. He might get better again.
OTOH, De Leon might be Pedro and Willie might be Brandon Phillips. Maybe we just get Phillips?
I am not smart enough to know how good De Leon is going to be or if Dozier has peaked!
We need a middle reliever besides a second baseman. Which will have more impact, a good middle reliever or a good second baseman? Will scoring occasionally makeup for giving up runs? How do you figure the WAR? Maybe Jose De Leon can be a really good middle reliever this year and a really good starter the next. Maybe we trade all this Talent and Dozier gets hurt in spring training, career over collect the insurance? If I were a GM I’m not sure I would be very decisive speaking for myself
That’s an interesting term.
At this level everyone has talent.
Dozier has proven that he has both the talent and the ability to perform at the highest level with it.
Calhoun, JDL. They have talent and that’s it.
Big difference there.
If I’m a GM, which I am not, I’m not sure I wouldn’t try to acquire those who have made an impact instead of holding onto those who might.
I think I would keep my finger pointing options open. If things work out you are great if they don’t you are fired
They say that de Leon is just one pitch away
I would like to see both JDL & Urias in better shape.
Both look like Doughballs to
They’ve been on the Anderson diet. He’s gone so clubhouse donut deliveries will likely be discontinued.
No, no, noooo
bluto makes an important point. Top prospects have about a 1 in 5 chance of making a difference in the bigs. Dozier has a 4 year track record of improving annually. He is 29 and in his prime. He plays the one position where the Dodgers have the biggest hole. The Dodgers have no one on the 40 man who I have confidence in at 2B. DeLeon is hardly the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect. If the Dodgers have a glut of anything in the minors it is right handed starting pitching. And by the way, Dozier is a righty batter.
If the Dodgers can obtain someone with Dozier’s credentials and a chance to make a difference for a prospect or 2 then they should do the deal. (As long as they hold on to the right prospects.)
Good stuff in here this morning.
What Melton said.
Rick, I think top prospects have a better chance than 1 in 5. It’s the mid level prospects that will likely be marginal. If 1 in 5 were true then we got our 1 with
Seager. From what I have read, Urias is pretty good. That’s 2 right there. I believe Bellinger is showing he is going to make it and De Leon was blowing minor leaguers (mid level prospects) away the last two years. Unless he goes McCarthy on us, his stuff is good enough to get here and stay here. He’s a legit #2 – unless he’s damaged. If he’s going under the knife, then yeah, move him. I like Mark’s idea of using him in middle relief, 7-8 inning, in ’17. If Dozier was Cano, he would have been sucked up by somebody by now. He peaked, the Twins know it, I know it and the American people know it. He’s still better than what we have, but we do have two second base prospects we traded for and one that is ranked 4th in our stacked system. Why we trading for and developing players if we don’t intend to use them?
That said, I would give them Spud Calhoun and Chase De Jong and a PTBNL that would be dependent on Dozier’s production. If he’s a 30 year old Jeff Kent, then they get another pitcher. But not another pitcher named De Leon. Stewart or Oaks would be my choice there. Like I said, I think Dozier had his career year.
But if the Twins are not ‘blown away’ with an offer than why not hang onto him. If Dozier gets off to a good start his value will be higher come the trade deadline. Ideally I do think the Twins would like to move him now. It isn’t so much due to the possibility of him not performing but rather they know he will be commanding more money than they are willing to pay him in 2 years and a 2 year rental is worth more than a 3 month rental. Dozier will have a lot of incentive to keep producing offensively. After his big payday he could turn into Dan Uggla.
If the Twins were smart they will move him now, while he is at the top of his game.
And the Dodgers would be crazy to trade for him, because they have more to lose.
Because two months of offensive production from Dozier, at best, is not worth JDL.
And I don’t see him making an easy transition to the National League, so those two years, might only turn into two months at best.
And his offensive production didn’t happen under the pressure, of a penant race, and he might turn into a pumpkin, like Reddick did, playing under the pressure in LA.
He is a right handed pull hitter, that hits more balls into a shift, then over the fence, or even for a hit!
I’m glad the front office isn’t making this deal, because the Twins have much more to gain, in this deal.
And this guy hit 200, with runners in scoring position.
Zach Lee, Joel Guzman, Blake DeWitt, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, Chin-Lun Hu, Andy LaRoche, Andrew Lambo.
Those are some of the TOP Dodgers prospects in past years. They are, do to bad work ethics, injury or just lack of skill, or over-rated-ness.
DeLeon is there, maybe he’s close and isn’t there. BUT given Alvarez’s rise and reports that the Dodgers are higher on him and Buehler, DeLeon may not even be the top pitching prospect in a year or so.
So, trade someone who’s not the top position (pitcher) prospect in your MINOR league system, for the 3-6th best position (2nd) player in the MAJOR leagues.
It’s a no-brainer to me.
My 3rd sentence above is both poor and incomplete. It should read:
They are, due to bad work ethics, injury or just lack of skill, or over-rated-ness, nothing to crow about.
I was reading the thread and Bum asked Mark, why do you show us projections and then ignore those projections?
The projections I showed were what fangraphs predicted last year. They were way off. That’s why I ignore them. Years ago, I used to buy Bill James and Baseball Prospectus Projection books and found them to be rather useless. I used to predict what players will do, but they are so many variables… up and down seasons, injuries, etc. About all I do now is say something like “Grandal has the ability to hit 30 HR” or “Puig has more talent than any player I’ve seen.”
Kike Hernandez could be a very good player…. or not… Who can really predict accurately? Fangraphs predicted 17 HR and 56 RBI for Kike in 2016 and more RBI this year. It’s a crap shoot!
I really like De Leon, but I no longer see him as a starter. I would trade him and Calhoun for Dozier. I suspect Minnesota would do that. Buehler will be in the rotation after the All-Star break.
I think the Dodgers will give McCarthy, Ryu and Kazmir every opportunity early in the season, so if one or more succeed they can be traded. Here are my odds of their success:
One pitches well – 93.6% (I don’t know which one)
Two of them pitch well – 32.7%
All three pitch well – .001%
Like it Mark.
Projections are fine and are usually based on historical data. No one could predict Turner hitting 28 homers this past year. There was nothing in the past to suggest that. (Keep in mind that playing for money can have those effects.) Now what?
The one thing that projections cannot control is a players health and/or plate appearances. Without the proper number of PA’s, no one will reach their projections.
But what are apparently ignoring is how projections are used to extend players, trade players, and to offer multi year contracts. Of course there will be players who fall short of projections just as there will be others who surpass them. But that certainly does not mean you ignore them. Ignore information and science at your own peril. Kershaw was given his contract based on projections. Turner and Jansen were both re-signed because the FO figured we needed their future production to compete. Everything in the game now is based on the mathematical relationship to winning and money. Every front office in every Major League organization is using projections. Fans on board with it or not, it will continue.
With that I project Dozier at .260/.330/.440 – less than 28 home runs and 80 rbi’s, less than 110 wRC+ and it could be worse than that in LA. I don’t trade a potential #2 for that. Pitching is too important. I would offer a decent package with two good pitching prospects and Calhoun. That said, if De Leon is used, I’m ok with it. I still don’t have a satisfying answer as to why we traded Gordon away, landed in trades 2 advanced second baseman, are developing a third second baseman, and are now apparently willing to trade a top pitching prospect for a 4th second baseman. Why didn’t we just keep Gordon? Its situations like these that grind away my confidence in FAZ’s trading skills.
The Gordon trade still is hard to appreciate for me as well.
I like Stewart and don’t want to lose him. Oaks and De Jong seem to be working well together and perfecting new pitches. I guess if I were GM I might have a difficult time making things happen because my offer to the Twins would be Oaks, De Jong, and Calhoun for Dozier.
If I had to add De Leon in a package with Oaks, De Jong, and Calhoun, and sorry to repeat myself, I want somebody like Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Brendan Rodgers, Amed Rosario, and Pirates outfielder Austin Meadows assuming a third team would be involved.
Here is a link that will bother some who don’t like the trades FAZ has made or is thinking about: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-prospects-ranking-top-candidates-to-win-2017-rookie-of-the-year/
Good link. Cotton’s name there is something of a surprise but maybe it shouldn’t be. The A’s saw something in him. Looking at that list, what if we still had Cotton, Montas, and Holmes. We’d still have Hill if we wanted him and be in the catbird seat, deep in young pitching.
That just turns my stomach. I think everyone should read it. Thanks for pointing that out.
If the Twins would have done that trade, they would have already made that trade.
They wanted Stewart and other pitching prospects,not a position player.
The Twins need young pitching badly, and two months of Dozier, or two years of Dozier, isn’t worth much more then JDL himself.
And really he isn’t even worth JDL,especially if he can be an effective set up guy, like you think!
Unless a trade is made there will be a platoon in LF. The lefty hitter will get 60% of the PA. While I like Ethier’s defense in RF, I can see him hitting lead off and playing LF with Puig a fixture in RF.
Thompson and SVS will fight it out in spring training for the other half of the platoon in LF but the edge will go to Thompson as I see SVS getting plenty of innings at first base against lefty pitchers. Agon’s age and neck should make a platoon at first base more likely. Bellinger could push his way into a spot in LF or 1B by mid-season and change those platoons.
Toles could win the LF platoon spot in spring training.
If SVS and Thompson are healthy and productive then the Dodgers have the righty bats already and therefore need only a great defensive second baseman that has speed–That player is Taylor. Put Taylor and Toles at the bottom of the lineup and enjoy THEIR speed THERE. THEN the Dodgers have more speed THAN they would have without Toles and Taylor TO which I like that TOO.
I thought Squirrel was the RH relief for the few games AGon doesn’t play. Did he do that just because SVS was hurt?
Squirrel needs to rest and nurse his bruises. I would trade him in a heart beat for solid young righty bat.
Non of those part time players, are going to solve our leftie problem.
We were not only last in offense in all of baseball, we were last by a lot!
Scott has been on the bench on the DL, more then he has played, in the last two years.
And Thompson is still learning to hit, like Joc.
And Taylor is really a AAAA player, because he can’t hit major league pitching.
Our regular line up has a better chance of hitting lefties, then these part time players.
And that is why they were ranked last in offense, by a bunch, against lefties last year.
And Scotty and Trayce, are not going to make that difference!
And Taylor isn’t even the best hitter, of the other clones, like him, on the team.
And if we don’t get a better hitter, that hits lefties well, the team won’t be able to carry Joc’s at bats against lefties, unless Joc can prove he can hit lefties.
Because a healthy Thompson, will be a better bat against lefties.
And if Puig can produce enough, he is the only outfielder on the team, that has proved he can hit both lefties or righties.
But Puig must produce enough, or he won’t have a full time job either.
Its only 32 % of the innings that we have to worry about lefties and between SVS and Thompson we should get a couple more wins where lefties pitch most of the innings in a game.
MJ, we are not arguing that the team would or would not be better with a stud righty hitter, we are talking about what it will cost to get the incremental gain that stud might provide.
You are right!
I don’t want Dozier, he isn’t worth JDL, but we
Need to do something about our leftie problem.
The Giants have two lefties now, and the team couldn’t hit Cueto.
Allegedly the Twins are asking:
“Is that your final answer?”
Going, Going, Gone… to the GM of the ____________________________.
I don’t understand all the optimism about Buehler. I understand he had a lot of potential, four pitches and all but he just had surgery. I thought he had pitched very little after the surgery. Surgery itself is a traumatic injury. Last year the twins lost a hundred and three games, if they want to keep up the good work let them keep Dozier. Apparently, we are the only ones offering anything so far. Dozier is a lifetime 249 hitter. Maybe he will hit 20-25 home runs, I say he never will duplicate last year, nor will he come close. De Leon straight up is generous. That’s the best deal for them, and the future for their organization. I think our front office is playing a pretty good hand on this
Buehler would’ve gone very high in the draft if 1) he were considered more signable and 2) he didn’t have that elbow issue requiring certain tj surgery
When he did come back last year from the surgery, he was throwing 98 in his first game. So ya, the optimism with him is huge. He has Zack Greinke like talent.
I’m almost 100% sure that Beuhler’s elbow problems, that led to the surgery, were not know before the draft.
Because of some inane rule that does not allow teams to give physicals to potential draftees.
The Dodgers and all of the other teams knew ahead of time, or he would have got much more draft money, then he got.
Wrong. Having questions is not knowing.
General Manager Farhan Zaidi said the Dodgers, like other teams, had questions about Buehler’s arm before they selected him with the 24th overall pick in the first round. But the team was unable to do a complete physical examination until after the draft.
I am not sure when they learned about the extent of his elbow problems, but it was before they signed him. His velocity was down that year, so I am sure it was suspected by some. He also missed some starts in his last year because of elbow soreness, so I think it was not surprising!
Okay, I didn’t know he’s throwing 98 after surgery. I thought 98 was in college before his injury
I have no clue about his velocity.
I take you at your word there!
What I really know is that he has only pitched five innings in the minor leagues since his surgery
First of all, why did all of the teams have questions about his arm?
And when a big prospect like that, has questions concerning there arm, right there, their value goes down.
But I think Bluehler himself, said something to the Dodgers, right after they signed him.
I can't tell if you are being facetious or not.
I'm sure the teams had questions about him because he either said something or his coaches did. They didn't know if it was a tired arm, a muscle pull, or something more serious (which it turned out to be.)
That's my point. Nobody knew it was as bad as it was. And they couldn't because they were not allowed to do a physical due to an inane rule.
Here's some reporting on the issue:
General manager Farhan Zaidi said the Dodgers knew there was some risk with Buehler, who experienced arm discomfort during the season, but he didn't know he needed surgery until after the Draft and a full set of medical scans were performed.
Dave (New York City): What do you and the Dodgers hear about Walker Buehler's recovery and timeline after his TJS? Were they aware of the possible need for surgery when they drafted him, or did this come as a surprise after his physical? Given his health risk, does he make the Dodgers' Top 20?
Ben Badler: I don’t think they knew he was going to have Tommy John surgery, but I don’t think it came as a complete shock either given the elbow soreness he had during his junior season and that something appeared to be off when he was on the mound. Still a good prospect and TJ has a good success rate, but we’re going to have to see how the stuff looks when he comes back.
Good article on our leverage regarding any Dozier deal:
No team knew for sure that he needed a TJ surgery, but there were questions about his arm.
And those questions about his arm, did make his value go down.
What are you questioning?
I hope that everybody posted on their mirrors that “good pitching beats good hitting”.… that way we will all be reminded every morning
Badger: “Rick, I think top prospects have a better chance than 1 in 5. It’s the mid level prospects that will likely be marginal.”
I keep posting this link:
Check out the Dodgers’ top 10 prospects as rated by Baseball America since 1983 and then tell me what percentage actually went on to do anything. Fans always overvalue their team’s prospects but if most of the Dodgers’ prospects actually made it, that would be highly unusual.
For example, here is the 2002 top 10:
Ricardo Rodriguez P
2 Chin-Feng Chen LF
3 Joel Guzman 1B
4 Ben Diggins P
5 Joe Thurston 2B
6 Hong-chih Kuo P
7 Willy Aybar IF
8 Jose Rojas P
9 Joel Hanrahan P
10 Jorge Nunez
Here is 1999:
1 Angel Pena C
2 Chin-Feng Chen LF
3 Mike Judd P
4 Steve Colyer P
5 Luke Allen RF
6 Luke Prokopec P
7 Onan Masaoka P
8 Glenn Davis 1B
9 Jorge Piedra CF-LF
10 Adam Riggs
One more – here is 1986:
1 Jose Gonzalez RF-CF
2 Greg Mayberry P
3 Jeff Hamilton 3B
4 Franklin Stubbs 1B-OF
5 Shawn Hillegas P
6 Chris Gwynn LF-RF
7 Ralph Bryant OF
8 Mike Watters 2B
9 Dennis Livingston P
10 Derrick May
Sure – you have to develop prospects and make sure that you keep as many of your best as possible but it is a major gamble. The difference between DeLeon and Dozier at this point is that Dozier has been an All Star and one of the top players at his position and DeLeon is a good minor league player who may or may not be a star some day. And the Dodgers have several right handed starting pitching prospects and from what I can tell, the team doesn’t rate DeLeon as highly as they do others in the minors.
Good read, I’ve always loved reading history books
Beuhler may be very good. I’m not sure of the time table. His last significant innings were at Vanderbilt. My guess is that he will have to work up to a MLB workload. He is older than Urias, so physical maturity may speed him along. Sborz pitched against his team at Virginia and has said in a recent piece that Beuhler is ridiculous. And that is coming from a pretty good pitcher. It will be interesting to see if he is given a shot in spring training. I doubt it. He’ll probably be a first cut. Too many guys in his way right now. BTW: Ethier may be a solid answer in LF and not just a platoon. He was having a very good spring when he got hurt. I think he could bat lead off. If he is 100%, I am comfortable with him playing every day out there.
Even against lefties? I think Ethier is a platoon player.
Who in the outfield, isn’t a platoon player?
Not sure. It’s a little scary on a number of levels, but I’m not sure what the better route is.
I don’t necessarily look at each team’s top prospects Rick. Especially ours. We’ve had some really bad drafts for a number of years. That may be why we’ve seen so many personnel changes in our organization. The top prospects I’m talking about are the ones that land on the Top 100 lists. We have a few now, the most recent are Seager, Urias, both Top 10 guys. Now on that list are De Leon, Bellinger, Verdugo, Calgoun, Alvarez, and Diaz and we let another go in Holmes. I think every one of those guys is going to make it. Yes, that may be optimistic, but I truly believe that. Not all will be stars, but some will. And, there may be more getting into that Top 100 this year. I think we look very good in our system. As you know, I want to keep them all for another year.
Don’t you think that people are over valuing Dozier, and under valuing JDL?
Just because the Dodgers like there lower pitching prospects better, it doesn’t mean JDL is not a good pitching prospect.
And I think everyone but Bluto, is judging JDL, on what he did in his starts, at the majors level last year.
He didn’t get a chance to have a real learning curve at the major league level, like Urias and Stewart did.
I’m not sure what your third paragraph means.
I think JDL is a better than good pitching prospect.
I hope he’s great.
I just think proven players are worth more than promising prospects! The best case is a win-win. Dozier does great, JDL does great!
Remember I asked you about JDL?
And you said you didn’t make your judgement. just from JDL’s major league starts, from last year.
Right. Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.
I only worry about De Leon’s health. I accept him as a 3 or higher pitcher.
A late report: the team will go DeLeon for Dozier, but that’s all. The Twins are asking teams for their best offer, or else. It looks like this saga is coming to an end.
My compliments to FAZ if he sticks to that.
I second that!
It is 59 today, and it is suppose to start raining later this afternoon.
And is suppose to rain again tomorrow.
There is a movie out right now, that sounds like you might like, it is called LaLa Land.
It looks like there is a few musical numbers, in this movie.
Like I said earlier the front office playing a good hand. Maybe if we hold out long enough the twins will be throwing in players
Again, I am willing to go into 2017 using Taylor at second, and giving SVS and Thompson more PAs. So, if a De Leon for Dozier trade can’t made maybe a few of De Leon, Wood, Calhoun, De Jong, Oaks for Archer trade could be made.
Maybe in May or June a McCarthy, Kazmir trade for Dozier might look possible.
I hear that TB wants what the Red Sox paid for Sale in order to get Archer.
I would do De Leon, Calhoun and Verdugo for Archer. I think Archer is a solid #2 in the NL on a good team. I don’t TB would take that deal. They would want Alvarez. Shoot, maybe we trade Alvarez while his stock is sky high and keep De Leon.
Alvarez, Calhoun and De Leon for Archer.
Alvarez is very raw – it’s hard to know what he will be.
Don’t forget Kike at 2B.
I think if Maeda starts out well he is a trade candidate!
End of the season rotation:
I prefer your first thought, De Leon, Calhoun, Verdugo
That’s a lot. Every one of those guys is a Top 100. And Tampa can
“want”, but Archer is no Sale.
Okay then Wood, Calhoun, Oaks, De Jong, and Baez with Baez included to speed up Dodger games. Maybe think about including Forseyth for additional players.
The problem is what the Nationals gave up for Eaton, but Eaton is under team control, for five years I believe.
Forget about the Rays.
Rays and A’s are our FAZamaBudz MJ.
I don’t think they were that happy that Friedman left.
They won’t say that, but they won’t gives us anything good either.
They were really mad about Maddon.
But I like Acher a lot!
You look like you are in pretty good shape!
6′ 2″ 215 and seem to be doing pretty well. The weight police probably would prefer I weigh 190 but that isn’t going to happen.
Why not keep our guys. They are basically free and pretty good
But then again…
I was checking out ’15 averages against LH pitching.
Kike 78 AB .423,
Seager 40AB .325
Howie 110-. 291
And 2016 –
Team .212? This is incomplete but some of our guys can step up a little and we subtract Rollins and Reddick who were opposites
I didn’t know you were that tall!
It is good you keep yourself up, it is so much better for your health.
According to reports, Dodgers are sticking to their guns, and want to do a 1 for 1 straight up for Dozier. I believe they do not trade for the guy and go in a different direction.
I say tell the Twins to stick him. Kike looked pretty good in 2015, his salary is low, and it’ll cost nothing to get him. I say, give him a shot at it. If he’s good, we’re way ahead of the game. If he’s not, we’re no worse off than now.
That’s the Spirit
I am okay with them riding the pony they have right now. Taylor showed some flashes and he is a solid fielder. Calhoun can hit. Nobody knows what to expect from Johnson. I do not plug Kike in as a starter. I think his value is as a super sub. He does not hit RH pitching very well, and his numbers vs any lefty not named Bumgarner, were pretty pedestrian.
Johnson was given the starting second base job, when he was with the White Soxs, but he wasn’t able to hit major league pitching.
First rodeo there MJ, there are a ton of guys who do not do well their first time around. But you are right, Johnson was mediocre at best. Kike with a year under his belt, could not hit MLB pitching last year. You do not give up on guys because they fail the first time around. Sometimes getting it takes a while.
I’m fine with where we are – except for starting pitching. I’d sure like to have more muscle there, but maybe Urias and De Leon provide it.
We did pretty good last year not hitting LH pitching. Maybe having SVS and Thompson healthy and Puig hitting better will help. I also still believe Hernandez would do well if the organization had more faith in him. Im ready to plug De Leon in somewhere and let him learn his craft at the ML level, so if Minnesota can do better, let them.
Despite what Mark or any of the pundits think, I have very little true confidence in this bunch. You need Hill to be healthy, Maeda to have a solid sophomore campaign, Urias to really step up and one of 3 injury guys to either come back or be traded for something better. If those guys cannot go, then it falls on the kids, None of whom has a whole lot of experience. Beyond Kersh and Maeda, I am not all that optimistic that they can get the job done. There are still a lot of holes to be filled before spring.
The Dodgers were 22 games above .500 against righties (69-47) and 2 games under .500 (22-24) against southpaws. If they won at the same percentage against lefties as against righties (.595 vs. .478), they would have won 5 more games during the regular season and may have won additional games in the post-season.
We don’t know at this point if Thompson will turn into a pumpkin. He was not a good hitter in the minors and was not considered a top prospect when the Dodgers acquired him. I think that a healthy Van Slyke will likely bounce back. I have doubts about Kike – he doesn’t have good strike zone management. There is no evidence that Taylor has what it takes to be more than a mediocre utility infielder – at least Kike has pop, which Taylor does not.
Johnson reputedly cannot field and last year he stunk in the minors as a hitter too. (.261, 5 HR and 105 SO in 464 AB) Calhoun is also not supposed to actually be able to play 2B. I hope that the Dodgers don’t go into the season with a combination of utility infielders to play 2B, but it wouldn’t be the 1st time that it has happened.
I agree with Michael Norris in part. Like last year, the front line starting pitching looks shaky at best. As more of the kids are ready for the big time I think we may be pleasantly surprised though.
That is why we need to keep JDL.
Dozier is far from a sure thing.
Right now in winter ball, Kike is hitting almost at the exact same average, he hit last season.
That is not a good sign!
He’s just working on some things. He’ll be a’ight.
Where did you see that?
See it? I didn’t see it. My sources told me.
Our best teams mainly played together in the minor leagues, and we traded to fill the holes.
It would be great to see that happen again. I am not a big fan of free agency, nor do I like the
idea of trading potential stars. We should be the one trading away shiney fading stars.
McCarthey or Kazmir, AND their paychecks, for Solarte.
For anyone, or maybe they are our middle relievers
Put down the crackpipe. 😉
I’m not changing my how I feel about this team. We will be good again this year but I don’t believe for a minute it’s a Championship club, I just don’t want to trade the future for marginal players that won’t change the fact we are not a Championship club. We didn’t get Miller when we needed him and we didn’t get Hamels when we needed him. Lost opportunities with good clubs. We let Greinke go, signed Kazmir, signed Maeda and then traded 3 top prospects for a guy who couldn’t pitch for weeks at a time last year. So I say stop it with the trading business FAZ, you’re not good at it. Build from within and sign a real Super Star free agent in ’18.
Brian Dozier spent parts of 5 seasons in the minors before getting the call to MLB. he never hit more than 9 HR… most often it was a lot less.
In his first year, he hit .234 (.271 OB%) with 6 HR;
In his second year, he hit .244 (.312 OB%) with 18 HR
In his third year, he hit .242 (but with a .345 OB%) with 23 HR
In his fourth year, he hit .236 (.307 OB%) with 28 HR
In his fifth year, he hit .268 (.340 OB%) with 42 HR
His slugging percentage has went up EVERY SINGLE YEAR!
To me, he seems to be a guy who figures things out, adjusts and adapts! I dig that!
I think in LA, he is likely to get even better, surrounded by more hitters. I would do De Leon and Calhoun and maybe De Jong to get it done.
A lot of baseball people are enamoured with Trayce Thompson. Dozier is living proof that minor league stats don’t always mean much. Guys “get it” at different times. This team has incredible depth. Misgivings about the rotation are simply misplaced fear. The rotation will be fine. Actually, the Dodgers starting staff will be one of the best in baseball.
What I see is a guy who took five years to hit above 250.
How long will it take him, to hit all new pitchers, in the National League?
Ok, Mark predicts Dozier will be “better”.
That means what? Well, 43 home runs, 100 RBIs and 6 WAR.
Hell yeah he’s worth multiple prospects. Calhoun, De Leon, Holmes and De Jong. Oh, wait. Calhoun, Cotton, De Leon. No, that’s not right. De Leon, De Jong, De Calhoun De Gordon. Ah crap.
Never mind. I’m no better at this trade thing than De FAZ. I’ll stick to “trade nobody for nothin”. Oh, and I got the “way under” on those Dozier better stats. In fact, I’ll bet 500 push-ups Dozier is not a 6 WAR guy next year.
Do it or don’t. This Dozzzzzzzzier thing has gone on long enough.
Dozier does or doesn’t 2day. I still like Solarte better.
Solarte? Yeah, he’s good, but he’s no 6 WAR player. And he’s a Padre. You want him it’s going to take more than De Lejongoaks. San Diego will want Seager and Urias.
Dozier could get worse coming to a new league, better pitchers, and bigger NL West parks. Or, he could be like Justin Turner (and maybe even Trayce) as a guy who hit his stride later in his career, and combined with hitting in a lineup with Seager, JT, Agone, and others, on a winning team, a guy who can be good for the next 5 years.
Funny though, I had a dream last night that I was at a minor league game. We were up by 1 run in the 9th with 2 out, runner on 2nd. Ground ball to Willie Calhoun, and he threw it away, allowing the tying run to score. And all everybody kept saying was “he will never see 2b at Dodger Stadium. Ever.”
Well, Steve Sax made a few throws that went into the stands instead of the first baseman’s glove.
It takes some good hitters a while until they are able to hit in a new league with new pitchers, and Dozier really isn’t a good hitter.
Look at his stats, beyound the HRs, because a right handed pull hitter, won’t be hitting that many HRs, in Dodger stadium.
Last year was the first time he was able to hit over 250, in five years.
Check out his batting average the year before, it was 236.
If he didn’t hit those forty HRs, and you took last years stats out, his stats look like Grandal’s stats, or even Joc’s stats.
But Grandal is a catcher with a lot on his plate, and Joc has only played two years in the majors.
If we are going to give our top pitching prospect away, and a couple more prospects, it should be for a better hitter.
Someone like Haney, who doesn’t only hit with power, he also hits for a good average, and hits good pitching.
Put this guy on your radar:
A 22 year old Loon?
Hey, that reminds me of Joe Don Looney. Remember him? He was a 22 year old loon.
The Brewers have a couple of good OF prospects and while have a rotation that while making lots of starts, had inflated ERAs and WHIP.
Instead of Dozier why not Braun for Toles, De Leon, McCarthy and Kazmir, yes both.
And put Taylor at second for his speed and defense.
Taylor, a SS, without a lot of ML experience, could work, but looking at his defensive metric numbers on Fangraphs I must admit his BZR, BIZ and OOZ numbers don’t impress me. And that’s probably true because I have no idea what the hell those letters mean. I look at them and see a BOOZER, which suggests a drinking problem. I don’t think a BZR is the answer to any questions we might have.
We have several guys who can play second base. If Taylor could get on base at .333 he would work. Same is true with Hernandez and Johnson. I think Calhoun could use another year in the minors where he could stretch his legs a bit.
I don’t see second base as the hole some do. FAZ has already addressed it a few times now. Let’s see how their choices play out.
Badger is right, if a player can’t hit major league pitching, speed doesn’t mean a thing.
Except Badger didn’t say that about Taylor or were you talking about Toles?
He said if he can get on base, at a 333 clip.
That is because he can’t hit!
If the Brewers have some good outfield prospects, why are you putting one of our young outfield prospects in a trade?
He is the first outfield prospect that came up, and was able to hit major league pitching from his first at bat, since Puig?
And if we are trading for Braun, this trade doesn’t need to have our top pitching prospect.
Braun is not going to look good, in the last two years of his contract probably, unless he is taking steroids again,
That is called slander MJ. Unless you have proof and I am sure you do not, you cannot assume stuff like that. Also, Braun, because of his past history is one of the most tested players in the major leagues. Same thing happened to Alex Rodriguez. And I read that you said unless…….but assuming he would go back on the stuff is pretty dangerous ground…..Next suspension would ruin the guy.
I didn’t say he was taking steroids. I said if he is hitting like he is now, toward the last two years of his contract,it might be for another reason.
Because older players don’t usually hit aa well, in there older years.
And Braun never tested for positive for steroids, the second time he was caught.
His name was on that list,
from that dirty clinic.
And he has already tested positive, so you never know.
Braun was being tested like you said, after the first time he tested positive.
And like I said above, he never tested positive the second time around, and Arod didn’t either.
They both were on that list.
And if Braun tests positive again, he isn’t banned from baseball.
Both him and Arod, had been testing negative.
Because the Dodgers have to clear out outfielders. I was trying to keep Puig who has been part of the ongoing discussion of a trade for Braun.
MJ, is Toles your replacement for Guerrero who only needed more consistent at bats to be an all star? I like Toles as well but Braun would be that righty bat you keep asking for.
For the most part i have said to stand pat and wait to see what McCarthy and Kazmir and Ryu can do. I will do a one for one trade for Dozier and even give up De Leon. MJ, have you ever said what you would give up and for who?
He is playing in the Japanese league this coming year, we will see.
Obviously Mark agrees with me about Toles.
He isn’t having him, hitting eighth.
2B is not necessarily a “hole” but the big hole is the inability to hit LH pitching. Dozier would fill both holes.
What I see is a guy who took five years to hit above 250. Sometimes, it takes guys longer to figure it out – witness one Justin Turner.
In Inter-league games he hit .292 last year. His career BA is .270 against LH pitching (.343 OPS) but it has gotten better each year. Last year it was .282 BS (.352 OB%) and .965 OPS.
Also, he puts up his best numbers in the cleanup spot!
All of which suggests to me that he is peaking. I don’t expect 40 HR out of him, but 30 is likely. I still do De Leon and Calhoun… that’s my final offer!
That is a good point about his batting average being better against lefties, and that is what we really need.
But can we take another hitter like that against righties, in our line up?
And the Turner comparison isn’t valid, because Turner never got a chance to play everyday like Dozier has, on a bad team.
I know we need someone against lefties, but Dozier scares me.
He could be the best thing for two months out of the season, and then disappoint big time.
But he is better then we have right now.
The question is, is JDL a injury worry?
I still say there are other players we could get, but if FAZ is stuck on Dozier, is willing to trade De Leon for him, then I see no problem in throwing in Calhoun to get it done. I doubt Calhoun has a Dodger future anyway. Go ahead, add Calhoun and let’s get on to other things…
I read that the Padres might not trade Solarte, because of what his family has been through in the last year.
That is if Solarte feels it would be easier for him this year, to stay in San Diego.
I will say this, I am glad the front office isn’t letting those manipulations from the Twins, cause them to blink.
I think there’s another dimension to the needed RH bat.
It’s a needed power bat.
Dozier gives them a truly stretched out lineup, and a power bat (even if he is at 60-70% of last year’s output) that will accommodate Gonzalez starting to show age, Grandal or Pederson slumping, or even Puig/Ethier/Toles not growing.
It is to bad that Turner hasn’t hit lefties well, for the last couple years, because he could make a difference.
Wishing all of you guys & girls a very Happy New Year.
16 was a good year for the Boys In Blue, I see no reason why 17 can’t be better.
Have a good night whatever you are up to.
I hope you have a great New Year’s Eve, as well as a great year, in 2017!
I remember when we thought 1999 was so far away, when Prince use to sing that song, of the same title.
Ok, include Calhoun if you must. I like the thunder in his bat, and so will Minnesota. He will make everyone there forget the other short legged legend Chuck Knoblach. ………. Wait, I think maybe they already forgot him. I was at a game at the Metrodome where play was suspended because about 100 plastic water bottles were thrown out of the bleachers at Knoblach in left field. He could hit, but man what a jerk. The last straw I think was he throttled a kid who asked him repeatedly for an autograph. Calhoun ain’t like that. If a 10 year old asks him to sign a jersey I’m sure Willie would reach up and do it for him.
Piss or close the lid dammit. Dozier or not, time to move on.
On the theory that bad guys on field aren’t angels at home, I looked him up on the Internet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Knoblauch After retirement he was twice charged with trying to choke wives or girlfriends in Texas. Both cases pleaded down to misdemeanors. I guess he was just practicing in Minnesota….
It is 53 today, and it is suppose to rain all day.
I didn’t realize until just now, that it is going to be New Year’s Eve tonight.
I was thinking that was tomorrow.
I am glad I finally remembered, because it is my brother’s birthday today.
I have to give him a call, and if I get his recording, I am going to have my dog leave him a message too.
Urias led the Majors with 6 pickoffs in just 77 innings. That is a real weapon that most pitchers don’t have a clue about. I hope the umpires don’t start squeezing him.
If I remember correctly, the announcers I heard, not pro-Dodger, seemed to think his pickoffs were awfully close to being balks. I think the umps will tend to lean in that direction as well, simply because they have the authority to do it.
They were not only close, they were on more than one occasion balks.
We need electronic balk calling.
It’s not that difficult for the first base ump. He’s looking right at it. If the foot breaks the plane of the rubber it’s a balk. Maybe the pitcher is framing it.