A few years ago, some of you were saying that Arte Moreno was going to own LA after his signings of Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. What the Angels did is actually the antithesis of how you build a winner. Two bad contracts have hamstrung them. I believe that when Friedman came to LA he wanted to blow it up like Theo did in Chi-town. That’s every baseball President’s dream. Alas, Kasten and Guggs would not allow that. I wonder what would have been if there had not been The Trade and signings of Kemp and Ethier? What if FAZ had been allowed to blow it up? We would be loaded going into 2018, but then again, we are still loaded going into 2018.
No team has ever re-built while continuing to win that I can remember. This is unchartered territory. I believe that if given a choice, Andrew Friedman would have stood pat at the trade deadline last year. I believe that Guggs and Kasten pushed for the trade of Hill and Reddick… which almost worked. Hill had little opportunity as he was blistered and Josh Reddick just choked in the LA spotlight (watch him have a good year in Houston this year) – he’s not a big market player. It’s just my opinion (based upon a lot of evidence) that Friedman really did not want to trade Montas, Cotton and Holmes for Hill and Reddick, but was pushed to do it by ownership… and ownership has that right. I would have rather they did not do that deal, but do it they did, and that’s that. Friedman and Zaidi know how to grow the farm and they also understand that dope-fiend long term deals to aging players are seldom the answer. The short-term deals for the blind, crippled and crazy were necessary to build the bridge. The jury is still out on Kazmir and McCarthy – we will have that answer in two years.
The Dodgers were never going to sign Price, Greinke or Cueto and even sign Cespedes to a long-term deal. 3 years to Kazmir and 4 years to McCarthy won’t kill you even if their arms fall off. $200 million deals can kill you. Ask Moreno! In a couple of years, the Red Sox are going to hate David Price‘s contract which will prevent them from signing some of their own free agents. The D-Bags already regret Greinke’s and you can’t be sure the Dodgers REALLY would have paid Greinke $150 million for 5 years – I think they knew he would take the biggest deal and they knew their deal would get surpassed. They just drove the price up and put the screws to the D-Bags.
2018 Free Agents – It’s quite another thing to give a long-term deal to a 26 or 27 year-old… which is how old Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will be in 2018 when they become Free Agents. Everyone talks about Bryce Harper, but I think the better fit for the Dodgers is Manny Machado. He could slide in at 3B with Justin Turner moving to 1B the last two years of his deal. Bellinger can swing between the OF and 1B. I think Machado is a better fit because of many things, not the least of which – he is a right-handed hitter, while Harper is LH. With Bellinger and Verdugo being LH, along with Seager, Grandal and Pederson, Harper would make us lefty-heavy. It’s hard to predict, but I think Machado will command an 8 year/$250+ million dollar deal…and by 2016, that will be right in the Dodgers wheelhouse!
Jose De Leon – I am neither for or against trading Jose De Leon, but I think it is going to take JDL, Calhoun and another player like Hernandez to do the deal. I like JDL as a reliever… maybe a starter, but he makes more sense to me as a reliever. A lot of scouts are still high on Kike and I think he has upside as well, but Dozier could really blossom in LA. He has shown improvement every year – he may not hit 40+ HR but he can improve his OB % and BA – is he a middle-of the-order hitter or leadoff hitter? I think you could see Dozier and Toles alternate at the leadoff spot. Could the Dodgers sign him to a 3-year extension? It might be wise to try.
I’m ready for Spring Training.
188 thoughts on “Uncharted Territory”
I always thought that signing Pujols was a great idea, but not for 10 years. Hamilton was an even bigger mistake. At least Albert has given them some production. But times change. The Dodgers way of doing business has changed and I guess as a fan my way of thinking is going to have to adjust too. The days of single person ownership are slowly becoming extinct. And baseball is business. Big business and they need to generate profits. The game itself has changed immensely. Albatross contracts can restrict the way a team functions and does business. It can also impact how well they can contend. I may not agree with or like the trades and signings the FO makes, but they work on statistics and graphs that to the average fan make no sense. Indeed most fans do not understand the different stats used to grade the players of today. I have looked on baseball reference.com and went to the Dodger page and one of the first things you see are the top 20 Dodgers in history according to WAR, which as some know means Wins Above Replacement. The only current Dodger in the top 20 is of course Clayton Kershaw. Number 1? ……..Surprise…..Don Drysdale with a WAR of 67. 13 points higher than Kershaw. 4 Dodgers in history have WAR’s above 60. Drysdale, Reese, Snider and Robinson. That’s it. But they have dWAR and all sorts of other stats that most of us just do not know what the hell they are or why they rely on these stats to judge a players worth. Well, I for the most part trust what I actually see on the field. Then I rely on the old stats like BA and fielding percentage and such to get a picture of how good I think a player might be. That will never change. But what has to is my conception of how the team should be built. I always liked the homegrown Dodgers better. I think in large part most of the free agents they have ever signed, at least the big name guys, have been a bust. I also realize that MOST prospects have little or no impact on the big league club. Those that do are not always the top picks. So trading those kids has never fazed me much. But I have always recognized the need for a good farm system. Either for trade bait, or to replenish the big club. The Dodgers have been close the last few years, but have not made the big dance yet. Maybe this is their year and maybe not. They have holes, we all know this. How this FO fills those holes in the next few weeks will give us some idea of where they might end up in September.
Trea Turner is untouchable and yet San Diego traded him. I don’t want to make that same mistake.
I for one do not think trading a prospect for a proven player is a mistake. Deleon has skills. He had some minor success at the big league level last year and a couple of hiccups. He might and might not develop into a solid MLB pitcher. For a relatively young and contract friendly guy like Dozier, who immediately fills a huge hole, I have no problem with it. The problem begins if the Twinkies try to hold the Dodgers up and get someone like Stewart or Alvarez included in the deal. Then I would close that door and try for Solarte from the Padres.
Trey Turner is still a prospect. Not a proven major leaguer and DC is betting the farm on the kid. He will be their regular SS and they are praying he has a Corey Seager type year. Yet to be seen if that kid can handle the pressure at a high pressure position in a pennant race.
From your earlier comment…
Very nice article and a very nice response.
After getting respectability back, and winning several Division Titles, I wonder what would have happened if we would have finished what was started by trading for that stud reliever the one year and that stud #3 the next. I suspect we would have one, maybe two titles and we wouldn’t have to listen this incessant tommyrot trade claptrap every other week.
Yeah, rebuilding while competing is uncharted territory and as some of have been saying for two years it would be a freakin miracle if it works.
I think Bellinger can play anywhere. I do see us getting one of those free agents mentioned and when that happens it will be like a very large Roman candle going off in LA. I look forward to that – in 2018.
It’s my opinion that Dozier has seen his best years. Just a feeling. If he stays on a low expectations team like Minnesota he might have a couple more years of .800 OPS in him. I don’t see him doing that in LA. Bright lights. Heavy air. Again, just a gut feeling. I don’t do a Hill-like deal and overpay for him, but it won’t surprise me if FAZ does just that.
I liked the Hill trade. IF the Dodgers are going to try to win every year, he was needed. Now that Hill has been re-signed, that trade balances out IMO. Also, by trading Cotton and Mantas the Dodgers needed to sign Jansen.
The Dodgers have Jansen and Hill due to the Hill trade and without that trade might instead have Montas as a closer and still searching for a #2 in the rotation for 2017.
I would trade De Leon, Calhoun, and Hernandez for Dozier. Anything more and I prefer to let Taylor play second.
The Dodgers need to keep Puig. They need to keep and add to their stock of under 26 players that can be part of a WS championship team.
You liked the Hill trade? May I ask why? We got him on July 31st and he pitched 34 innings the rest of the year. By comparison Matt Moore pitched twice that for the giants, and also won twice as many games. Yeah, Hill did go 6 against the Cubs, but how did work out for us? He cost us 3 top prospects, all of whom we could use NOW, and we still could have signed him as a free agent. That trade sucked the ruby begonia.
I totally agree with you badger, those guys were just a donation. If we wanted him we could be signing him now like we just did. Maybe for less. Plus we would have had more ammo to trade with. De Leon might not even be in the discussion
I thought I answered why when I said it.
1. The Dodgers had to have Hill to have a chance of getting to the WS and almost did it.
2. By re-signing Hill for 3 years the Dodgers will get more than 34 innings out of that trade.
3. Had Hill not been part of the Dodgers last year, he might not have re-signed and FAZ might not have offered a contract.
4. If the Dodgers had Cotton and Montas still they probably would not have re-signed Jansen.
5. The Dodgers would still be looking for a #2 if Hill had not re-signed.
6. Had Jansen not been offered a contract, he and Turner might not have had their Kumbaya moment at Jansen’s wedding and neither of them might be with the Dodgers now.
7. Do I really need a 7, 8, 9, and 10?
Some of 1-6 is redundant and non applicable. We needed more than a DL’d starter to make it to a World Series. He didn’t really help a thing.
And I believe we sign him anyway. Other GM’s likely knew better
Plus, a lot of if’s in there.
Difference of opinion.
If they would have signed better starting pitcher in the first place, we wouldn’t have needed Hill.
Hill won 3 games. The Dodgers won the division by 6. I do not think they needed Hill at all. What they needed was an innings eater and someone who actually pitched every 5th day that last part of the season. By resigning Hill the Dodger spent 48 million Dollars, so no, they are not getting more than 34 innings out of the trade because these extra innings are costing them a lot of cash. If they were willing to trade Montas and Cotton and you forgot Holmes, they might have been better used going somewhere else and getting them a starter and a power hitting RH bat that would have solved their problems against lefty’s. I think they would have offered Jansen and Turner QO’s no matter what because a draft pick was attached. So that theory is blown out of the water. I do not think remotely that Hill is going to last a full season. He is fragile and that is a proven fact. He had what amounts to a decent half year. Only the second time in his injury riddled career that he has been in double figures in a 13 year career. He has grit and guts I will give him that. He is also 37 years old, and that is a lot of cash to gamble on an arm and body that old. And you are quoting a bunch of if’s. Fact is they spent the money, but they could have done it without the trade. And Reddick was a total waste.
….”So that theory is blown out of the water.” Hardly.
I didn’t forget Holmes. He just didn’t fit into my case for the Dodgers not signing Jansen. My thinking is that FAZ might have been comfortable with Mantas and Cotton in the bullpen to not offer Jansen as much as they did. Holmes is a starter and several years away.
It was blown out of the water. Trust me, they would have QO’d Jansen no matter what. And they offered him that much because they knew there were no better options. Montas has a blazing fastball but no experience. And Cotton is a starter. Not a closer.
It’s highly debatable if any of the three pitchers could be used now. There’s barely space on the 40 man roster for Hill.
It’s debateable if any of those thee pitchers projects out to a middle rotation arm, and as Passan intimates there’s a lot of those in the system right now.
Hill is not middle rotation. He’s top of the rotation. The LAST THING the Dodgers need is an unremarkable innings eater. They had a deep and varied bullpen precisely to invalidate innings eaters.
You make moves to better your team. The team with Rich Hill was better than without. You make the trade without giving up top prospects? that’s a good process.
Process > Results.
Passan is talking about McCarthy, Kazmir, wood, and Maeda, not our prospects.
Hill is not top of the rotation. He is a retread who never has pitched 200 inning in his entire career. He had half a season last year that was decent. But he was not worth the 3 guys they gave up, and Reddick was worthless……
I never liked the Hill trade and dislike the signing even more. But that is just me. They did not get enough bang for their buck in my opinion because for the most part all they got out of that deal was a LH hitting rental in RF who fell flat on his fanny.
Reddick eventually made a contribution, just not before everybody gave up on him. They got Reddick because they did not expect to have Puig back, Thompson was hurt, SVS was hurt, Ethier was not ready, Toles was a surprise, Hernandez couldn’t make contact, etc.
Toles came up in July, and he hit from his first at bat.
The point is that we needed a right hand bat, that hit lefties well, not platoon Reddick!
The reason I think people were upset about trade, is what we gave up, in the trade too.
And the fact that Hill was on the disability list when he was traded here, didn’t help.
And most fans didn’t have faith in the front office, after they had brought these other starting pitchers with long injury histories, to the team.
If we had to take Reddick like Mark said, why did we give up so much?
I don’t buy they had to take Reddick. The front office was hell bent on sending Puig out of town and Reddick is all the could find and they weren’t about to trust Toles with the job.
Contribution? Horse manure. He played 47 games hit 2 homers and drove in 9 runs. Puig did better than that in 21 games. The guy was totally useless, and he was a liability in RF more than once.
Let’s not forget he got picked off base 3 times since becoming a Dodger, misplayed more balls than Puig all season, and missed the cutoff man just as much if not more than Puig.
Which I still think he shouldn’t be
I don’t want to move him – unless of course he becomes our next surgical loss. If his shoulder was just fatigued, rest him up, get him some daily doses of organic non GMO ginger wheatgrass broccoli spinach juice and prepare him for 150 innings THIS coming year. The man is going to be 25 in August. It’s time. If he’s going to Minnesota then f it – buy him a down coat, some Sorels and put heat balm in his jock.
You can question whether the starter that the Dodgers got at the deadline should have been Hill given his age and injury history, but I really didn’t have a problem with the idea of trading prospects for players at the deadline. That’s what you do if you want to go for it in the postseason.
The Dodgers traded from their abundance. They appraised which of their 100’s of right handed pitching prospects weren’t going to make it big in the bigs and made the call. Cotton is a 2 pitch pitcher who is 25 I believe and the Dodgers figured that they had better prospects coming up. Montas may never be who they thought he would – injury prone and with poor control. Holmes’ development seemed to be stuck – again that control thing. Will the Dodgers regret it in the future? I have no idea. But Hill? I’m not sure that I would have traded 3 of our top 13 prospects for a 37 year old injury prone guy and another lefty hitting OF we didn’t need.
I was pleasantly surprised the Dodgers resigned Jansen. The Hill signing fit the profile – 37 years old, injury prone, and not a $25MM/year guy. Turner – they may not have had another choice. The signing of Jansen gives me hope that in 2018 when the payroll is lighter the team may “go for it” with a premium free agent as Mark suggests.
Badger suggests that Dozier has seen his best years. He is only 29, has been healthy, has only had 4 full big league seasons under his belt , and has gotten better every year.
As to player evaluation, as baseball evolves, how players are evaluated has also evolved. Ty Cobb was very critical of Babe Ruth – there was no “art” in hitting HRs and he struck out too much. When Ol’ Hoss Radbourne was pitching, teams used 2 starting pitchers. The Koufax era Dodgers used 4. Now it’s 5. My Dad used to complain that Don Sutton was a “7 inning pitcher” and couldn’t complete his starts.
Michael’s point that when you watch, your eyeballs and brain are also assessing players is worthy of consideration. Marley’s Ghost famously asked Scrooge why he didn’t believe his senses. When you watch a player, if your eyes and brain tell you he’s not any good you don’t care what his WAR is. That’s why players like Grandal are controversial. He is awkward behind the plate. His footwork is bad so he is slow at releasing the ball and bad a blocking pitches. So the defensive metrics like him, but your eyes tell you something else. What are you going to believe?
I’m going to believe results. Cotton has already pitched successfully in the bigs and Holmes is the A’s 3rd ranked prospect and still grades out at 55. Montas? Who knows, but he’s still hitting 99 on the gun. And the point about needing them NOW is we could send one or two to Minnesota for Dozier and still have the largest MAYBE in the mix – Rich Hill.
I too am for making moves at the deadline – but not for 36 year old starting pitchers who are currently DL’d, haven’t thrown 200 innings in their entire career and haven’t done much of anything in 10 years! I’m funny that way. I want pitchers that are mowing them down NOW and hitters having career years this month. Deadline deals are the quintessential “what can you do for me NOW!”
Liked the rest of your post. Never knew what Cobb said about George, or that Marley’s ghost thing and agree about Grandal’s clumsiness.
Who knows? Hill could end up being a bad signing, de Leon could end up a Pedro and Calhoun could end up being another toy Cannon
Just seems like you can’t have too many young promising pitchers
I think Oakland would agree. They got 3 good ones from us.
And something else while I’m thinking of it, Cotton actually had a better record for the A’s than Hill did for us. So… put that in your one hitter and smoke it all you Hill for MVPeers.
I had no problem with the Hill/Reddick trade at the time it was made. Hill was one of the top starting pitchers on the market and Reddick was not a bad player (in fact his stats are very much like Dozier’s stats). If the front office was blessed with the hindsight we now have that Reddick would be relatively crappy, then perhaps it’s easier to dis this trade. But at the time, they were two of the better players available. Other than Cotton, I’m not necessarily going to miss any of the prospects. They may all turn out to be Sandy Koufax part 2 , but that happens. I remember Dan Evans (an underrated GM in my opinion) once commenting in response to a trade that he made of a prospect, “we know our prospects better than they do” and I’m sure that type of thinking was involved in the Hill trade. Despite what everyone may think of FAZ, they are not stupid people.
I’m not sure that I would trade Calhoun. Everything I read about him shows that he has a great deal of internal fortitude of the type not all modern players possess. I think (my opinion as worthless as it may be) he will be a special player in a year or two.
Melton mentioned the Toy Cannon, I loved him as a player and was extremely disappointed when he was traded. It wasn’t long though that I became a real fan of Dusty Baker and Jimmy Wynn was a distant memory. So it goes in baseball.
The last thing we needed was another left hand bat.
I keep hearing Hill “was the best pitcher on the market”. Really? In the entire month leading up to the deadline he had 12 innings pitched. 12. For the entire month. He didn’t pitch at all in June. Not 1 inning. And at the time of the deal he was on the DL. He was battling a groin injury and a nasty blister. How can that possibly make him the best pitcher on the market? Matt Moore was available, and he would have helped a lot more than Hill did. And we could have both of them now and be a lot better off.
Maybe the 37 year old Hill will surprise all the way to 39. But Plan B had better be ready to go. My Plan B is De Leon. I don’t have Plan C in the hopper yet.
Well, I did say that Grandal might only catch 5 of Hill’s games due to both being susceptible to injury. I still am glad Hill is on the 25.
For me, plan C would be Chase de Jong or Trevor Oaks (I’m particularly rooting for him since he played for the high school where I coached). From my uneducated observation, I think both of these young men have a chance to be real good.
At the time of the trade deadline, I’m not sure that Matt Moore was necessarily a better option. Again, hindsight helps us view things differently. Plus, he cost the Giants quite a bit to obtain. Perhaps the Rays weren’t interested in what the Dodgers had to offer. We’ll never know. It takes two to dance in any trade.
Maybe we should start offering dejong and Oaks rather than de Leon and Calhoun? The way they’re going the cupboard will be bare soon
I guess there’s a lot of pressure on winning now. I’d rather see something sustainable . Maybe people’s jobs are on the line?
Seems like we’re starting to turn into a talent spigot for the rest of baseball. How about us?
In 2012, the Dodgers Top pitchers were as follows:
#1 Zack Lee
#2 Allen Webster
#3 Nate Eovaldi
#5 Chris Reed
#6 Garrett Gould
#7 Chris Withrow
#8 Josh Lindblom
None are with the organization now, some are out of baseball and none have distinguished themselves except by their mediocrity. That shows you how long the odds are, although 2012 was a really bad year for Dodgers prospects.
The Dodger system is much deeper now, but the odds are still long. I liked two of the three pitchers traded, but to say that they are going to be really good flies in the face of the odds. Both are relievers and Montas has closer stuff but time will tell. Holmes made me yawn. Cotton was nice but Montas has speed.
You can however, watch pitchers like Urias and De Leon and Alvarez and know they are of a different ilk. The same is true with Buehler. Those four pitchers are special – they can all be #2’s. Stewart and De Jong are a #3 to #5’s. Stripling and Wood are something below that.
Holmes will go the path of Lee but Cotton and Montas will be relievers. The thing is, the Dodgers have plenty of them, so the trade was out of our surplus. That’s why it was made.
In 2018, this could be the rotation if Kershaw stays:
Well said Mark!!
It does seem as if though our minor league pitching depth is a lot stronger than it was in 2012. We had some horrid drafts from 2000 through 2011.
Let’s hope these prospects turn out to be as good as advertised. I always enjoy rooting for the “homegrown” kids.
With the salaries they are handing out now for mediocre pitching, it’s hard to imagine that Kershaw won’t test the waters.
What about de Leon? it doesn’t look like the trains going to go through
The thing with Stewart he hasn’t pitched that much, so he doesn’t have a lot of miles on his arm.
He has only been pitching four years.
Doesn’t a couple of those starting pitchers, already have had a TJ surgery to there resume?
Eovaldi has had a pretty good career. I think he came down with arm problems this past season.
Michael, I posted that video for you up the thread aways…
Love the Hill trade. Would do that trade all the time. Especially given the organization depth.
But the premise of the article here is an infuriating one.
Why in the world would Friedman come to the Dodgers if he wasn’t allowed to do what he wanted? He could do what he wanted in Tampa and was and is considered one of the top GMs in the game. He could and still can wait for an oportunity to do whatever he wanted in any position he wanted.
I’m sure he is doing what he wanted.
What I think is that the author is trying to come up with a reality where what he (the author) would do, is what Friedman “really wants” to do. Just to make himself/herself feel better.
You really know how to say something.
I guess that’s better than knowing how to say nothing.
….and maybe you are doing the exact same thing. I think they call that hypocritical.
If that infuriates you all I can say is WOW!
It’s my opinion, but it’s an informed opinion.
I don’t see myself writing any articles, or presenting counter-factuals on Andrew Friedman, so I’m not sure what your first sentence implies.
As for the third sentence, informed by who or what? Senseless voices?
Sometimes you figure it out and sometimes… not so much.
Are you so naive to believe that Kasten and Guggs have no input?
See, I really don’t care what you believe, but it’s not senseless voices. I’m not saying I’m an insider, but I guarantee I am closer to real sources than you. If I give them up, I loose them and I don’t give a damn if you or anyone believes it.
I have nothing to prove and really don’t care what you believe. You are totally free to believe that I just make shit up if it makes you feel important.
I hope your sourcing is better than your grammar.
Lose not loose.
I am not saying your are universally making stuff up, just in this case it sounds like complete baloney. Go ahead an guarantee unprovable stuff, that’s a real recipe for good discourse on message boards.
This isn’t a discussion about what I believe. It’s a discussion about what lunacy you are claiming to be sourced. Stay on target red leader.
Do I think Kasten and Guggs have no input? Of course not, does that mean the input is anything more than input? Of course not.
I love this kind of stuff:
Bluto: “I hope your sourcing is better than your grammar.”
Bluto: “Lose not loose.”
Bluto: “I am not saying your are universally making stuff up,”
I think if I were to be a grammar cop I would try not to make a grammar mistake in the middle of my cop stuff.
I mostly agree with your takes Bluto but that was too classic to let it go without comment.
I am a Stewart fan and like his health as well. If Kershaw opts out in a few years and leaves, I can see a rotation of Urias, Alvarez, Buehler, Stewart, and a surprise.
I would rather try to use De Leon to get a younger player that might be part of a 70s kind of infield. It just seems like the Dodgers should be able to get someone like Dansby Swanson for De Leon, Verdugo, and Calhoun. What else would be needed for an offer that Atlanta can’t refuse?
That is a good point about health, because I think a couple of those pitchers, have had a TJ surgery already..
Maybe we let the season start and revisit this after Maybe Kasmir or McCarthy build up a little value and other teams get more desperate for starting pitching. We can always throw in a few million. Could backfire but maybe not
Also, we are now dealing from a position of strength, no one should feel the compulsion of possibly holding our feet to the fire. We should only make trades that we are comfortable with. No desperation. We might only be a couple of existing players “Getting Their Minds Right” from a WS
Dozier is not the type of player, to trade your top pitching prospect for.
We don’t want to make a trade like the Nationals made, to get Adam Eaton, unless JDL has an injury issue, or if the report on him, in Dodger
Blue is right.
I read that JDL speed went down in August, because of him being tired.
But the same article said even with his velocity being down, he was still as effective as before, and still getting a lot of swings and misses.
It sounds like he needs to work on his endurance.
And even if we have a surplus of right hand pitchers, it doesn’t mean you give up to many in a trade, that isn’t worth it.
It was bad enough having to take Reddick too.
Fans are sick of getting the A’s rejects, almost anything our GM makes a move.
Who said the team had to take Reddick? I think they wanted him.
Who said Hill was an A’s reject? I think he’s one of the top pitchers in the game when healthy.
DeLeon is, in my opinion, not the Dodgers top prospect. It’s debateable if he ever was and will be.
You have to trade something to get something, especially a top 5 second baseman.
Mark said that his sources said, the A’s made the Dodgers take Reddick, to get Hill.
And why would we need another leftie hitter, that doesn’t hit lefties?
When our biggest weakness, was hitting leftie pitchers.
We needed a right hand bat, that hit lefties well, unlike Reddick!
And I didn’t say Hill, but we have taken many players, that played for the A’s when our GM was there, in the last couple years.
And JDL is the Dodgers number one pitching prospect right now.
You never answered me, are you making your judgement on JDL, from what he did at the major league level last year?
Dozier isn’t a top five second basemen, unless you are just considering merely his numbers, from last year.
And his power numbers, don’t translate to Dodger stadium!
was the second hardest stadium, to hit a ball out in, last year.
Yeah, well I’m not sure I buy his ‘sources’ namely because that makes zero sense at all. If they kept Reddick, they could have given him a qualifying offer and made a draft pick. we needed a lefty to play good defense and platoon with Puig.
JDL is NOT the Dodgers #1 prospect right now.
My thoughts on JDL are not impacted by his major league performance for the most part. That’s a tiny sample size. They are based on reports I’ve read on Baseball America, ESPN and BPro.
Dozier was a top 3 2nd baseman last year, and top 6 each of the two years before. I’m not at all aware of any reason his power won’t translate to Dodger Stadium simply because of stadium size. That seems like a specious and easy argument.
I don’t want Harper either, especially with the money he is expecting!
Harper has not been consistly that MVP good, and he has had a little trouble being able to stay on the field.
Only Trout would be worth that type of money.
Trout has been much more consistently good, and he has the right temperment to keep it up.
Both Corey and Trout approach the game in the same way, and they both know how slow the game down well.
Harper is ran by his emotions at times, and he lets an umpire take him off his game.
The problem with Machado, is that he may want to play shortstop when he goes to a new team.
And Corey isn’t going to be moved over to third, for sometime.
Machado has also had a surgery on both of his knees, and playing shortstop, will put even more pressure on his knees.
But I can see why you like his right hand bat.
First that does make sense that the A’s would want to give Reddick a QO, but Mark does have some inside sources, so I believe he might have heard that.
And in both things I wrote, I said JDL was the Dodgers number one pitching prospect, and he is.
And you keep on saying he isn’t the Dodgers number one prospect, which I didn’t say.
And you said that Dozier was a top five second basemen, not top six, and you didn’t say if he was a top six in the American League, or in baseball.
And about Dodger stadium being a hard place, to hit a ball out.
Dodger stadium was the second hardest stadium to hit a ball out of, last year, that is an actual stat.
It is a well known thing, that Dodger stadium is hard place, to hit a ball out.
It isn’t just because of its size, there is a marine layer that sets in almost every night, that causes balls to die at the wall.
But where Dozier plays in the summer months, the humidity level is conducive to making the balls to fly out.
And in the west we don’t have a lot of humidity, because it is a dry heat.
Dozier isn’t a great hitter, or he would have been able to hit above 250, before last year.
I know you don’t give any credit to a player’ s batting average, but hitters who don’t hit for a decent average, don’t usually hit good pitching as well,
as hitters that do hit for decent averages.
And hitters that don’t hit for decent averages, don’t contribute to the offense as often, as players that do hit for a good average, and hit with power too.
And Dozier strikes out a lot, and strike outs, are not productive outs.
And we already have two players in our line up, that strike out to much, and we don’t need another hitter, like that, if we want the team to have a more productive offense.
Dozier has been more that type of hitter, then the hitter, he was last year, when he did hit for a decent average.
The stats of Dozier were for all of baseball. Top 6 for the last three years, coming in 3rd last year.
My bad on DeLeon. I thought Alvarez was rated higher, I was wrong.
I understand Dodgers stadium is a harder stadium to hit homers in, but do we know if that would really affect Dozier? I read on Twitter that he would, in theory, lose 6 home runs if he played ONLY at Dodger Stadium.
I think we can also make presumptions that in a more balanced Dodgers lineup he’d get more balls to hit?
I don’t really care about hitting for average. We’ve litigated that to death.
Wow. The team that I watched last year needed more than “a couple of existing players getting their minds right.”
If you recall, the Dodgers were LAST in offense against lefties and FIRST in bullpen innings pitched due to the incompetence and injury-proneness last year. They need to do something to resolve both issues and also need someone to play 2B. Taylor is a .600 OPS guy and I really don’t want to see him playing 2B next year. Kike would be better although I’m not sure that his defense is all that. And Johnson couldn’t hit .250 in the minors last year and he is not reputed to be a good defensive player, and don’t get me started on Calhoun. If all it takes to be a good defender is a lot of extra infield practice as some here have suggested, then anyone could be Brooks Robinson – that simply isn’t true.
No – if the Dodgers want to be real competitors for more than the Division title next year they need to improve. They have 3 months to do this and I’m sure that the Braintrust isn’t done putting the team together yet.
Your missing the point!
Calhoun doesn’t have to be a gold glove at second, if he hits well enough.
I sure wouldn’t stop Daniel Murphy from playing second on our team, if he hit like he did last year.
And hitting is much much harder to do!
Players can get better defensively,
if they want to put the work in.
Like I said, what happen to the time if a player can hit well, they will find a place to play them on the field.
I was listening to MLB a few days ago and they said that the Nats needed to move Murphy to 1B because “?they will never win a Championship with him at 2B.”
Are you kidding, without Murphy’s bat last year, the Nats probably wouldn’t have won there league.
And if Murphy makes all of the rountine plays, there won’t be a manager in baseball, that would keep him off of second, with his bat.
And most saber metric people acknowledge , that defensive metrics, are really hard to measure, and they are not a perfect science.
And with these shifts today, a player doesn’t need to have the same lateral movement, because most balls, are hit close to where a player is put on the field.
Wasn’t he the reason the Mets lost game 5 to the Royals, with his iron glove?
That was one game!
How many games did his bat win for the Mets in the post season?
And his manager could have put in a defensive replacement, in the late innngs.
And it wasn’t just that one defensive error that lost that game.
You will find people will concerntrate on one defensive play, but mostly one error doesn’t usually lose a game.
The fact is the Mets would have never made it to the World Series, without Murphy’s bat!
Murphy had HRs against some of the best pitchers in baseball, in that post season!
You know how Brooks Robinson became Brooks Robinson? By taking 100 grounders a day everyday. I heard that from Larry Bowa. He did it too. You want to be better at something than you are now, you work your ass off at it. If Calhoun is willing to work, he CAN improve. By the way, his fielding % has improved four straight years. Maybe he already IS improving.
As for our pitchers who didn’t make it, the fact is we had some pretty empty drafts for a number of years. Zach Lee was never really that good. He was overhyped and overpaid because of agent leverage with that LSU commitment. Jose De Leon wasn’t nearly as ballyhooed but he has pitched much better in the minors than Lee ever did. He earned that Top 20 rating.
But, if the several infielders we’ve traded for and signed aren’t good enough – sure, trade or top pitching prospect and a few others for a 30 year career .246 hitter from Mississippi. It might work.
It does not take perfection to win the World Series, much less to play in it. In spite of all our terrible faults, we came within two games. Maybe just get a couple of Minds right could be that three game push
I know in my lifetime, it’s all been about chemistry
It is always the question does winning cause good team chemistry, or does good chemistry make a team win?
I do think Robert’s chemistry made an impact on the team’s chemistry last year.
I remember one time I was on we lost our first three games and from then on we were undefeated straight through and won the championship game. You do have a point, at first we were all bickering but by the end of the season we became lifelong pals. We had flawed players but somehow they came through when you least expected. I’m not saying anything like we should hope for a miracle but.. This guy Calhoun sounds like a keeper
What about JD Martinez? If the Dodgers could sign him to an extension, I like him a lot. Would Detroit take Calhoun, Verdugo and someone not named Stewart, Buehler, Bellinger or De Leon for him? Puig too?
I like him, but apparently he has really bad defensive metrics.
Why would the front office trade for him, after they got rid of Kemp?
And about Puig, the Tigers didn’t even try to bring Cespedes back, even though he had really good offensive numbers, when he was there.
But your right, we do need that type of hitter, if we are going to give some prospects away.
I have reviewed Calhoun’s play and I am not convinced he will not be a huge liability at 2B. OTOH, his bat is very similar to Dozier’s.
But you think Johnson’s defense is fine at second, unlike what baseball people say about Johnson’s defense.
But I think some of these defensive metrics, are not always accurate, and don’t make as big as a difference as some people think.
And there have been good defensive players, that have had bad defensive metrics at times, so these defensive metrics are not always consistent.
And that shows that these metrics may be questionable, and may not be the best measurement of a players defense.
Heyward got a really big contract, because of his defensive metrics.
But does his defense make that big of a difference often enough, to pay him what they payed him, or to play him over another player, that hits much better, and is average defensively?
And if a player wants to get better defensively, a player can get better defensively, but hitting is a different story.
Mark Calhoun won’t cost us some of our prospects, like Dozier will.
The big difference is that Calhoun may be a prospect at 2nd.
Dozier IS an impact player at 2nd.
Part of that is true, but you don’t know for a fact, that Dozier will be a impact player for the Dodgers.
But if we get him, I sure hope he will get over here, and start hitting once he joins the team.
Because if he does have trouble adjusting to hit in the new league, with all of the new pitchers, like some players have happen.
Then we will only get one year out of him.
And even that additional year, is no guarantee
There are no sure things.
You are right there is no guarantee that he will be an impact player.
HE IS AN IMPACT PLAYER!
He’s top 6 for the last three years.
Just because you have a worry about his skills translating to a MLB stadium shouldn’t stop the team from acquiring an impact player. You could raise that worry not only for nearly every MLB player, but every minor league player.
That’s my point, Calhoun isn’t even a prospect yet for 2nd base. He’s a hitting prospect.
When people resort to attacking your grammar on a blog, that’s always a smoke screen that they have no argument. I make a fair amount of typos because I am not a touch typist. I was in a motorcycle wreck years ago and the fingers on my right hand (I am right-handed) don’t exactly move when they are supposed to. It’s like a TV 5-second delay. Sometimes it’s just funny to me. Sorry, I’ll try and do better.
By the way, I prefaced what I said with “It’s my opinion…”
It’s amazing to me that I can be attacked for just stating “MY OPINION.” You can feel free to disagree but what you did I do find that infuriating! I just don’t see how you can be infuriated with my opinion.
Repeated from above
I love this kind of stuff:
Bluto: “I hope your sourcing is better than your grammar.”
Bluto: “Lose not loose.”
Bluto: “I am not saying your are universally making stuff up,”
I think if I were to be a grammar cop I would try not to make a grammar mistake in the middle of my cop stuff.
I mostly agree with your takes Bluto but that was too classic to let it go without comment.
One final thing: You will find out I was right at some point.
I look forward to that. You’re overdue.
If it’s your opinion, then don’t imply about “sources.” Because it reads as either informed opinions or 2nd hand reporting of facts.
I don’t have an argument, I’m just saying that your “sourced” information seems unsourced and purely speculative to me. To use your words, it’s my opinion.
Not sure what being a touch typer or a voice-dictation person means when I’m talking about grammar. Take a moment to proofread if grammar is important to you.
I won’t be holding my breath to see if time proves you right.
Well, I do have sources… believe it or not… and I don’t care if you don’t believe it, because I can’t prove it. I still have the cell phones of Logan White, De Jon Watson and Josh Rawitch… to name a few. That’s not where I got the info. Friedman and Maddon are still close friends and that’s all I can say. My opinions are frequently based upon info from “sources.” I don’t have as many as I used to, but I still have a few. Mostly scouts and friends of others.
Someday I can tell….
I’ll look up the video sometime, but Logan White jumped all over me on camera for denigrating Jon Broxton, but after the interview off camera, he whispered to me “he’s a second-tier closer.”
It’s stuff like that which I cannot tell currently but will later.
Make up your mind Mark.
Is this opinion or is it sourced? Or, is it opinion you wished was sourced? Or is it opinion based on sourcing.
I really like your mentioning of “Friedman and Maddon being close friends.” Way to imply something by saying nothing. All I will say in response, is that Stan Kasten and Andrew Friedman are Jewish, and so am I. We all go to temple. Read into that what you will.
That’s a wonderful story about Jon Broxton. I actually believe it. You should have started and stopped with that.
Aren’t opinions based upon information and information can come from various sources?
It’s opinion based upon a source. It seems to me you want to just argue. Well no, you do want to argue. You keep making a straw man. Have at it. I’m done. It’s silly.
my sources tell me that Dozier has deep deep regrets about certain things that are just coming to the surface and he is not sure how it’s going to affect his game
I would like to see Alex Wood and Jose De Leon as setup men.
I think both could pitch 80+ innings and do well. There is still hope for Baez, and Liberatore, Fields, Dayton and Ravin could make up a great pen. Could Blanton be headed back?
When did you change your mind about JDL?
I don’t remember you saying before, that JDL wasn’t a starter.
I don’t care if we trade one of our good pitching prospects for a top tier type of player.
But I just don’t think Dozier is going to make that big of a difference, and we will have him for only two years, and by then, he will be 31.
I can see trading one of our top pitching prospects for someone like McCutchen, if they don’t think this last year, was because of an age regression with McCutchen.
1 – “I know in my lifetime, it’s all been about chemistry”. Really? What about the A’s from 1972-74 or the Yankees from ’76-78? Those guys hated each other and their managers, but won the series several times.
2 – “You know how Brooks Robinson became Brooks Robinson? By taking 100 grounders a day everyday.” Really? So why isn’t everyone who takes grounders as good as Brooksie was? It takes practice AND aptitude and not everyone has the aptitude to be a good defensive 2B.
3 – “As for our pitchers who didn’t make it, the fact is we had some pretty empty drafts for a number of years. ” That’s not all that it is. Check out Baseball America’s lists of top 10 Dodger prospects every year since 1983. http://thebaseballcube.com/prospects/byTeam.asp?T=15
The draft is a crap-shoot. Most prospects don’t make it.
4 – “Calhoun doesn’t have to be a gold glove at second, if he hits well enough.
I sure wouldn’t stop Daniel Murphy from playing second on our team, if he hit like he did last year.
And hitting is much much harder to do!” Doesn’t anyone here remember the likes of Mariano Duncan or Jose Offerman try to play 2B or SS? If they can’t field the position it doesn’t work. You can’t use a baseball bat at 2B.
What do I know, I just don’t see very well. You are the king
Yeah. If you have an iron glove, might as well give up.
Some guys put more time in at working on their trade. Some guys don’t. And some organizations insist that players put that extra time in. Not every Major League infielder takes 100 grounders a day during the off season. Some just play golf, or party into the night. Maybe Calhoun doesn’t care to work on his weaknesses. What do I know.
Holmes is several years away? Maybe with the Dodgers he would have been. With the A’s he could be in the bullpen in ’18. The guy throws what is called a “heavy” 98 mph fastball, and has a sharp breaking curve. He will be working on his control and command at AA next year. If he cuts down on his walks, Oakland won’t hesitate to bring him up. That’s what they do.
The Yankees and A’s had there problems, but there is a fine line between love and hate, and even hate is a chemistry.
Not everyone is a great athlete, but if a player wants to put the work in, they can get better on defense.
The point is not every third basemen in the league, played defense at third, like Robinson, and no one expected them to, either.
Robinson was a top third baseman, and the Dodgers don’t expect Calhoun to be elite at second.
Especially if he is adequate defensively, and makes all of the routine plays, and swings the bat well.
Maybe the players you listed, didn’t want be better defensively, so they didn’t put the work in, to be better.
A player has to want to get better.
You also don’t make a judgment on a player because of there body type, because you could be leting a good player go, by not giving them a chance.
Isn’t that what the Dodgers did with Pedro?
And hitting is the hardest thing to do in sports, so you don’t give up on good hitters.
Especially if they do want to get better, and they want to put the work in, to be better on the field.
And if a player does make all of the routine plays, and hits like Murphy did last year, there wouldn’t be a manager in baseball, that wouldn’t find a place for that player, to play on the field.
But that was a good point that most prospects, don’t become major league players, it isn’t just the Dodger’s prospects.
Rick stone cold nailed it…
Chemistry??? Makes me spit up a lil bit in the back of my throat…
I knew Brooks Robinson and he spent more time feeding the ponies at various venues… It’s not a bad thing to say he and others had/have a God given talent…
The draft and roulette… One in the same…
One big Bat and D @ 2B… Voila…
You’re absolutely right, I barfed when I read what I wrote.
Reggie Jackson was a terrible outfielder and an ahole to boot
On Grant Holmes:
A lot of Dodger “Homers” like David Hood liked him. You will read the same stuff from A’s Homers.
First of all, he threw 100 MPH Is High School, but while he can still “Hit 98,” by his own admission he cannot control pitches over 93. And… if you read about his heavy ball, they also say “is easily driven.” His change is a very good pitch, but he doesn’t use it often (I have no clue why). His curve is not good, but his slider has some bite when he can control it.
His release points are all over the place. I’ve watched a lot of video on him and unless he can magically harness his control at 98, he has no chance. Of course, it’s tantalizing to have a guy who can throw 98. I was never a fan, just like I was never a fan of Lee. I did not like Pederson either, and I thought Puig would be Roberto Clemente (although I spotted him as a knucklehead early on), so there is that.
So, you’re mind is made up on a 20 year old who throws 98 and can touch 100. I’m not surprised by that. I’ve seen you close your mind on many issues over the years.
Calhoun don’t believe Lawyer the Rick’s premise that once a stiff always a stiff:
I like the guy. He’s apparently working hard in Arizona this winter. But he’s 22 so maybe it’s time to give up on him too.
The selective positive thinking in here can be difficult to understand.
So what’s the hold up with Dozier? I’m ready to Doz off here waiting.
Hey Wonder – having never before changing my name I just did, to Taxidea, and my post is waiting to be moderated. The last time that happened it took a day or so before it got cleared.
Hasn’t changed yet, I see… You might want to explain the significance of your “new” name to people, might save some questions.
Not really new. SLOTim gave me a beautiful Dodger tshirt with Taxidea Taxus on the back. Post still shows the moderation tag on it, which I’ve heard happens a lot. And yeah, I’m sure suggestions would be bountiful.
Were you waiting for your company to put you on line again?
I must admit that Wondering did a pretty good job, with your name!
But he isn’t getting all of the heat, like you are.
How important is a 2B to this team? That was answered when Kendrick was traded before all this fun started. I don’t think that position is as important to the suits as you might think. With that in mind, Mark mentioned Solarte, and I think he is a solid piece to our puzzle. He carried the Yankees for a while before his stint with the Padres. Played 3B. Maybe his cost of talent will be less than the Twins. I’m not sure of his defense, but he is a solid offensive player and will bring desired versatility. Kike can be let go or included in a trade for him. I say forget Dozier. Only recently have I heard from some of you that De Leon is not as good as we thought. The suits think he is, so I doubt if he will be included for a 2B unless there are some other pieces that we don’t know about. If another deal is to be done, my bet is that it will be a several team deal and the Dodgers will get and give OF’s and give SP’s and eat some $. 2B will be an afterthought, and there is always that free agent, Utley to fall back on.
I like Solarte, he always comes up big against us… The Padres will trade anyone if the price is right. They would go for Puig, McCarthey or Kazmir, and money. That way Solarte would be helping us in more ways than one. Or one of the broken pitchers, money and a prospect if we want to keep Puig. Personally, I think Puig has a lot of potential if he is handled right.
Should have added this: We’ve already invested 3 years and a lot of money in Puig, I’m inclined to invest another year or two to see if he can live up to what we see as his potential.
You don’t mean “get his mind right” do you? They will barf all over you
Why are we talking Solarte? Is there a recent rumor he’s on the market? I read Preller denied any rumors from weeks ago. Solarte is arb eligible and not a free agent until 2020. If he’s any good, wouldn’t the Padres keep him?
Puig as much as any outfielder we have has earned his money. 4 years, 12.7 WAR, for $25.5mm. That’s solid return on investment. He’s a 26 year old right handed hitter with a career .833 OPS and a slg% of .472 which are both better than Dozier. Isn’t he exactly what we’re trying to trade for?
I get the impression the Padres management is sort of wacky and is liable to do anything. And money sways their opinion. With half of two years of McCarthy’s salary, or Kazmir’s, they would be inclined to make the trade, I think.
They should join us in here. They would fit right in.
Yes the Padres GM is still on probation, in every other team’s mind, so he couldn’t pull any fast ones on our GM, if we did make a deal with him.
I just think the Padres want to get younger, and they may have a young prospect, that they want to get in there infield this year.
Solarte is 29, but he is a good little hitter.
He is a switch hitter, and he hit just under 290 both leftie and rightie.
He does have a little pop, because he did hit 15 HRs last year, and that isn’t bad in SD.
He isn’t a leftie killer, but he is more then adequate against lefties.
He rates average defensively at second, and he can play most of the infield positions.
I don’t think he will cost as much as Dozier, and he isn’t new to playing under pressure in LA, because he did play for the Yankees.
I think some people don’t want Solarte, because he isn’t that big name player, and he isn’t that big bat.
But we don’t know that Dozier can be that big bat either.
Especially in his first year, in the National league, as well, as being under the pressure and big lights, in LA.
I’m okay with Solarte too—very good with Yankees at the beginning. Not that far off Dozier to justify a prospect haul. Dealing them off at this rate, we’re not going to get to the promised land fat and happy.
I just think he would cost less, and I feel he is a better over all hitter, then Dozier.
Dozier does have much more power, but will he have that type of power, in Dodger stadium, that seems pretty unlikely.
And some players don’t do well when they are moved to the other league, especially in the first year, because they don’t know most of the pitchers.
And if that happens, we will only have one more year, of Dozier.
Because he only has two years left on his contract.
And if that happens, we won’t be happy, that we gave our number one pitching prospect away.
Puig is a tale of two players.
2013 – .319, 19 HR, .925 OPS, 4.9 WAR
2014 – .296, 16 HR, .863 OPS, 5.3 WAR
2015 – .259, 11 HR, .758 OPS, 1.1 WAR
2016 – .263, 11 HR, .740 OPS, 1.4 WAR
He is not a plus player right now and hasn’t been since 2014. To say the Dodgers have gotten 12 WAR is misleading. He has been a 2.4 WAR player over the past 2 years. He seems to take a step backward annually.
He has the talent – no doubt. I have doubt that he will ever produce in a way consistent with his talent though. He has shown no inclination to pull his head out of – well you know. I for one am ready to see what if anything we can get for him from some other team enamored with his talent and willing to overlook his past bad behavior and his past failure to make good on his potential.
Yeah, we know all that.
And that’s why the Uhhh nope.
You’re always arguing the point aren’t you counselor.
The Dodgers might should just go ahead and give him away, right? Clearly this organization can’t get through to him.
Rick: You and I had the same idea about breaking down Puig’s 4 years. I wrote it about the same time you did but didn’t post it due to an interruption with my neighbor.
I hope you’re not hoping that he will get his mind right (spittle, barf)
There is another way of looking at Puig’s career stats. First of all I have no issue with his fielding or especially his arm. I would venture to say, without knowing for sure, his arm is probably in the top 5 in all major league baseball.
That being said, this is what I have an issue with: How much of the 12.7 WAR was in 2013 when he came on like gang busters? If you break it down year by year this is what has happened:
2013: BA-.319; OBP-.391; Slug-.534; OPS-.925; vs LHP-.340
2014: BA-.296;OBP-.382; Slug- .480; OPS-.863; vs LHP-.258
2015: BA-.255; OBP-.322; Slug- .439; OPS-.758; vs LHP-.279
2016: BA -.263; OBP-.323; Slug- .416; OPS-. .740 vs LHP-.261
Granted he was injured in 2015-2016 and sent to the minors this year so I combined those last two years into one(182 games) year.
15-16: BA-.260; OBP-.323; Slug-.428; OPS-. 750
Anyone see a trend here, I do. He is NOT the star player some here think he is.
Like the man once said in Brooklyn, “Better to trade a year too early, than a year too late. JMHO.
I think we all know how it breaks down richie. My point was simply that looking at his short career, he has been a very good value for this team. Why that isn’t accepted as fact is strange to me. Is it personal with you too?
Puig is 26. He has only 1556 at bats in the Majors and has put up 12.7 WAR. I find that a damn impressive start to a career. Some obviously think it’s just not enough. Glass half empty.
Yes, he has been controversial. But it’s my opinion that with a talent like this you get him some help or send him someplace who knows how to go about it. Maybe the FAZ Braintrust has no algorithm for what ails this player. But I can’t help but notice – he’s still here.
Given the Dodgers rotation has had difficulties going 7 innings maybe we could look at it another way. The starters seem to be able to throw 100 pitches so its about getting more innings out of those 100 pitches. Its not like the starters are gone before they throw 100 pitches, well not all of the time anyway.
Are they throwing strikes?
Are they nibbling a the edges too much?
Do too many of their pitches get fouled off?
Does the defense routinely cause pitchers to throw extra pitches?
Are hitters sitting on pitches?
Do hippos like cold water or warm water?
Does Dozier like St Paul or Minneapolis better?
Stamina. These guys are 90% cream puffs. Only Kershaw can get through the order 3+ times. Which makes it more like 93.33% cream puffs as we had 15 starters last year.
Which brings up another betting line. How many starters will we go through this year? We had 15 last year, we probably won’t go over that, maybe probably as we did the year before with 16. So, let’s say…. 14.5. O/U for number of different starters in ’17 is 14.5. On Drcember 18th I’ll take the over on 14.5.
Minneapolis or St Paul?
Probably Minneapolis as that’s where the team plays.
That’s probably not a fair analysis. I wouldn’t necessarily call any of the current Dodger pitchers cream puffs. Since 1980, there hasn’t been a single pitcher in the national league that has pitched over 300 innings in a single year. You have to go back to 1977 to find one in the American league. It’s a different game today. Whether or not Kershaw , Verlander or Price or any other current pitcher could pitch 20 or 25 complete games like Koufax did is not a question we’ll be able to answer, because they’re not going to be given that opportunity.
I would love to see the Dodger’s parade out 5 solid pitchers that could be counted on to go 6-8 innings each time out, but that’s probably not going to happen anytime soon either. I looked at last years stats (admittedly I got bored after 10 or 15 Pitchers), but the only pitcher I found that averaged 7 innings per start was Chris Sale. I’m sure that would make Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale and the like cringe with disbelief.
On the other hand, if you can get 5 – 6 innings from your starters, why not bring some fresh shut down relievers out to throw an inning a piece and close out the game?
Frankly, I don’t care if we go through 20 starters, as long as we get to the playoffs and have a chance to make it to the WS.
The Dodgers didn’t finish 1st in bullpen innings pitched for nothing. Their starters couldn’t get it done. They only had 2 starters with more that 2.0 WAR (Kershaw and Maeda).
According to Baseball Reference.com. league average IP/Start was 5.6 in 2016. How many Dodger starters equaled this? Three. Kershaw (7.1 Ip/S), Hill (5.7 ip/S), and Wood (5.6 ip/S).
Maeda (5.5), Stripling (5.4), Kazmir (5.2), McCarthy (4.4), Urias (4.6)etc.
The team averageg? 5.3 Ip/S.
Can the Dodgers do better than this?
Not next year. This staff isn’t being led by workhorses. The only one we have is Kershaw.
I think almost EVERY PITCHER in the league has a drastic different in opposing OPS once they get to the 3rd time through the lineup. This isn’t a Dodgers problem.
In 2015, major leaguers hit .247 when facing a pitcher for the first time in a game, with an on-base percentage of .312 and a slugging percentage of .390. When facing a pitcher for the second time, they hit .261/.319/.416. When batting for a third time against the same pitcher, major leaguers hit .270/.330/.440.
FanGraphs did an analysis on this and here’s what they wrote:
As the lineup turns over, a typical starting pitcher’s OPS-against climbs from .705 to .731 to .771. Going strictly by those stats, lifting your starter when he reaches less-effective territory makes sense.
This is why, in my opinion, we’re going to see more teams going to the bullpen early.
And why we shouldn’t fret, in my opinion, about the Dodgers doing it again next year.
So, you’re mind is made up on a 20 year old who throws 98 and can touch 100. I’m not surprised by that. I’ve seen you close your mind on many issues over the years.
So, I can’t have an opinion? Go back and look at the shit you spew. You are the biggest hypocrite on the planet! I get dumber from every post you make.
and then you say to Dodgerrick:
“You’re always arguing the point aren’t you counselor.
You are a world-class double-standard hypocrite – at least you are consistent. You are always trying to twist things to suit your narrative.
Check out my reply to Badger on his assessment of Puig and his 12.7 WAR. Just need another opinion by you or someone else.
Everyone in the league knows he has exceptional talent. They also know he is a clubhouse disruption and a head case at the plate. But if the Dodgers sell low they’ll snatch him right up
No one is denying his talent. What gets me is his devil may care attitude and taking everything for granted. I get the feeling he feels he’s above the team and will act the way HE wants to and to hell with anyone else.
There is only one sports figure who thought he was the GREATEST but he backed it up. Puig, on the other hand, still has a lot to prove and make up for in my estimation.
Personally, I’d rather have an overachiever than a underachiever anytime.
In your opinion, keep or trade Calhoun?
Puig has amazing talent, but has tanked the past two years and being full of promise.
He is a knucklehead.
Puig has put up positive WAR every year he’s played. In NO year did he not earn his salary. And in two of those 4 years he was phenomenal, putting up over 10 WAR for $7.4mm. Some choose to get personal, call him childish names etc, but try as some may, you cannot argue the facts. Have an opinion, but don’t try to convince us your opinion is gospel. Don’t try to say he’s not earning his money. That’s reserved for McCarthy et al.
Yeah, trade him now at 26 and the bottom of his value. Maybe what he needs is to get the hell out of here.
Then pray tell us common folk why is he “at the bottom of his value”? BTW I TOTALLY AGREE with your last sentence.
You know why Richie. We ALL know why.
Why do you do this? “Tell us common folk”? Where does that come from?
Here’s Baseball Reference.com definition of WAR:
“The Concept of Replacement Players
Average is a well-defined concept. You sum up all of the observations and then divide by the number of observations. We compute averages every day.
So why don’t we compute Wins Above Average rather than Wins above Replacement? When computing the value of a major league player, average is a poor baseline for comparison. Average players are relatively rare and can be expensive to acquire. Average players don’t make the league minimum. Plus, not all average performances are equal. A team would pay much more for 200 league average innings than for 50. When a star player is injured, they are rarely replaced by an average player — usually their replacement is much worse.
That last point is our premise here. Average players are relatively rare and difficult to obtain. Replacement level players, by their very definition, are players easy to obtain when a starter goes down. These are the players who receive non-roster invites at the start of the year, or the players who are 6-year minor league free agents. Baseball talent among the population is generally distributed normally, but only the very right-end of that curve plays professional baseball.”
So a replacement level player isn’t an average player but a AAAA level player – not quite good enough to populate a major league roster on a regular basis. And Puig has been 1.1 to 1.4 wins/year better than that. Not much to boast about.
Fangraphs definition of WAR:
Freely available minor league or AAAA players from your bench. What if your replacement players, from your bench, are better, or worse, than the rest of the league?
Then of course there are the numerous algorithms every team uses to evaluate every player throughout the entire minor and Major league systems. I’m fairly certain every GM and their team uses there own formulas. What we are reading are BR and Fangraphs. No doubt the FAZgraph numbers are different.
My opinion is that I would stay out of it.
“I get dumber from every post you make.”
One team executive told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that clubs are wary of his (Ryan Braun) past performance-enhancing drug use. “When a guy with that contract has been busted once, it’s hard to commit those dollars and those player resources because if he gets busted again, you lose all of your guys and you lose Braun,” the exec said. “Nobody is saying he’d do it again, but while he’s a very good impact player, it’s just a tough one.” Braun served a 65-game suspension for PEDs in 2013 and later admitted to using them during his NL MVP-winning season in 2011. He returned from the suspension in 2014 to post so-so numbers (by his standards), but the 33-year-old has gone back to being a high-end offensive performer since. Braun is owed $76MM over the next half-decade, including a $4MM buyout in 2021.
My only question is not who got caught using PED’s.
My question is how many players did not used PED’s in some form or fashion?
I think the number is very low.
A few guys got caught. Most didn’t!
It seems to me that our FO wasn’t wary of Braun’s past. Why else would they have been so close at the Trade line? From what I read from multiple writers was th e stumbling block was the 2nd prospect to be sent to the Brewers. Both teams has already agreed to the 1st prospect along with McCarthy and Puig.
Who that prospect was(is), we will never know.
Wonder if it was one of our team execs trying to drive Braun’s price down. Good.
Will Braun be suspended from baseball all together if he is caught again?
Because he wasn’t suspended for testing positive.
But Dodger starters didn’t even accomplish league average. In my view, Dodger starters as a group last year were not league average generally, not just in terms of durability. Their WAR numbers is evidence of that. The pitching staff as a group was 14.0 WAR. Kershaw was 5.6 so the remainder accomplished 8.4 WAR as a group. You eliminate relievers like Jansen (2.5), Blanton (1.7), and Baez (.9) and you start to see that as a group Dodger starters are below average in 2016.
We can hope that they will be better this year. Hill will be an upgrade on days that he can pitch. Urias should improve with a little experience and knowledge of the league. Neither are likely to be workhorses though. Maeda gave us 2.4 WAR in his 5.5 ip/S. We can hope for the same in ’17, but again he’s no workhorse either.
We don’t know if Kazmir or McCarthy will be back – I suspect that at least 1 will be gone if for no other reason than salary relief. It’s hard to say now what the rotation will look like next year. I hope that it puts together more than 14 WAR though.
All you have to do is look at the starting pitchers innings, before Faz came here.
Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, and even our number four pitcher, probably averaged at least 6 innings, if not more.
If you look at the Cubs starting pitchers innings this last year, I bet there starting pitchers, averaged about six innings or more this last year.
And they won it all.
Friedman has show a willingness to give transgressors a second chance in the past. Toles is an example. I don’t think the PED use is a factor. I think the problem is who else was involved. Maybe they wanted De Leon?
Gotta see this video of Kenta Maeda!!! Shows incredible talent for physical deception.
The only article I have seen concerning Braun in the off season, was a story asking if the Dodgers were still interested in Braun.
And that is all I have seen.
There wasn’t anything about the Dodgers, or about moving Braun, on the Brewers site either.
I guess I will repeat my comment about 100 pitches. Everybody went on a tangent the first time. More and more pitchers are pulled after 100 pitches. Stamina is about pitch count and not innings.
The question is not how do we find pitchers that pitch 7 innings, it is how do we get more innings from 100 pitches.
The rule of thumb is 15 pitches per inning. That’s 7 innings on 105 pitches. You get 7 innings by throwing strikes and keeping them on the edges of the strike zone. The only pitchers who threw 200 innings last year were pitchers that were strong enough to take the ball at least 32 times and good enough to stay out there at least 6.1 innings. We didn’t have any. SF had 3. Boston had 2, and now has 3. Cubs had 1, but 3 others with 188+. There were 20 pitchers in MLB with 20 or more QS. We of course didn’t have any but Kershaw’s 81% QS was tied for second with Lester. He’s the only horse we have pulling the wagon.
How do we match those with better starting pitching? We don’t. Not with this group. We stay in it with a strong bullpen and a productive offense.
Obviously it’s a different game now.
What you are saying should be every starting pitchers goal, so they already know this.
Kazmir didn’t even throw well in spring training as you remember.
His lack of control is because of his chronic condition.
A pitcher must use there back to pitch, as you know.
And it is a chronic condition .
A chronic condition is just something that can’t be completely healed.
And this condition will probably come up again when Kazmir starts pitching again.
I think Urias will have an even better season this year, and we will see a lot of improvement with him.
I don’t know if Stewart will have to learn another pitch or improve on some of pitches, but if we don’t get rid of one of those two pitchers, we will be stuck with them, in the rotation.
MLB Network talking about Texas this morning. They have a guy named Bush that looks like a premier 8th inning guy. http://m.mlb.com/player/456713/matt-bush
Texas is looking for rotation help. Dodgers need to thin out their rotation that currently includes Kershaw, Maeda, McCarthy, Kazmir, Ryu, Wood, Urias, Stewart, Strippling, De Leon. Seems like a deal could be made between those two teams.
Texas might use Profar to get pitching. http://m.mlb.com/player/595777/jurickson-profar
He could be another player the Dodgers could look at for second base.
Angels want to add a lefty swinging outfielder. It would be helpful from a payroll standpoint to trade Ethier to the Angels for ptbnl types to minimize the $$ the Dodgers would have to send with Ethier.
Would anybody want to take a flyer on Sonny Gray? His value is down after a 5+ era last year so Oakland probably would not want to trade low on him but if so, what would be the offer for him? Verdugo? Calhoun? Toles? Kazmir? Schefield? Some combination of those?
Lots can happen before the season starts.
I would like to add Profar, Bush, and Gray.
Gray is an interesting idea. Haven’t heard his name mentioned in a while. He projects to near 200 innings with a 3 WAR so you can bet Oakland would mention that a few dozen times in negotiations. He’d cost a lot.
Profar? Is he finally ready to do something? He’s been a prospect for quite a while. I’d take Bush if he’s available. Is he? What would it cost for both? Seager and Urias? Maybe Kazmir and McCarthy?
Profar isn’t looked at as that same prospect.
And I know he is in the majors, but he isn’t looked at the same, and the fact that the Rangers don’t have him starting at second, says a lot.
I don’t want to see anymore trades with Bill Beane, with our GM.
Because the with the last trade, the A’s got to much.
And Bluto I thought at first you were right about the A’s perfering the QO, more then trading Reddick, but that is only one pick.
They got three top prospects, in that trade of Hill and Reddick.
And a team knows more what they have, with prospects that come from AA and AAA, then the one pick they get..
If you think they got three prospects, or even one of them, because Reddick was included, then the Hill deal was even better!
Sonny Gray missed much of last year with a shoulder. That makes me nervous. The A’s won’t want to trade him now because his value is low due to last year’s injury. No thanks.
Why would the A’s want Kazmir at his price?
I think the A’s will think that Kazmir is . over paid.
Leaving for Denver this afternoon and flying to California tomorrow morning. Do not expect anything huge out of the Dodgers until at least after new years. Y’all have a very Merry Christmas!
Have a safe flight!
It is getting a little warmer in the next few days, but any temperature in
California, will be warm for you.
Jimmy Rollins just signed a minor league deal with the Giants. Gets an invite to spring training….
Great story here on Verdugo. http://www.thinkbluela.com/2016/12/alex-verdugo-world-traveler-and-adrian-gonzalez-protege/
Seems like a real live-wire, high energy guy–what the stats don’t tell you. And see comment by Cervenka about Verdugo’s best friend Willie Calhoun–sounds like they’d make a great combo in the near future. Tight team chemistry can begin in the minors–don’t trade it away!
Team chemistry. The key lies deep in data science:
Hope our guys have this…how could they not?
They also had another article on Calhoun, in Think Blue.
Thanks for the info!
Thanks MJ–I’ll check it out.
How about a new avatar to go with your new name? Assuming it ever changes… This one might frighten Catbox away…
He will show up soon, since you mentioned his name.
Think I’ll change my avatar, Marty Feldman just lacks dignity…
How about this one?
I really think someone, really thought that was Badger.
I’ll pay to see that!
But his eyes sure look like he is up to trouble!
All together now
“WAR – what is it good for….,,,…
About $8 million on the free agent market.
Nice Badger pic. I don’t feel the need for an avatar. Thanks anyway.
Don’t sacrifice yourself Wonder. When you find yourself agreeing with Timmons, just stop, look both ways, then proceed with caution. It will pass. By the end of the day he will likely say something else that will be a wtf! moment and things will be back to normal.
Quiet on the ball front.
Question of the day: Who will become our starting 2nd in 2017? In 2016 we had 7 players who manned that position, Barnes, Kike, Johnson, Utley, Kendrick, Taylor and Culberson. Utley(38 yo) is a FA, Kendrick is gone and the other 5 had a total of 178 innings between them. Kike can’t hit(.230 BA) RHP.
Maybe we stay in house with one of: Sweeney, Calhoun, Trinkwon or Locastro. None of those players seem ready offensively and or defensively.
Do we trade for the likes of Kinsler, Dozier, Forsythe, Solarte, Harrison, etc and trade away the next Pedro Martinez or future AS like some have suggested?
How about digging even deeper into our farm system and invite 20 yo Brandon Montgomery from Rookie league to Spring Training. After all, Steve Sax was only 21 when he made it to the Bigs.
Or how about Darwin Barney? Get back Dee Gordon? A year of Brandon Phillips? Or resign Utley?
If you think I’m reaching for straws in the wind, you’re spot on. To me that’s the largest hole we HAVE To fill along with a RH Power hitter.
Montgomery looks interesting for maybe 2020/2021??
BA-.336; 2B-10; 3B-10; Hr-8; SB-14/20; OBP-.385; OPS- .954; Fld%-.965. Also played CF. I’m going to keep tabs on him for the future.