There’s no game today, so let’s sit back and enjoy an LADR Youtube video.
Today I deal out grades to the Dodgers offense, defense, pitching staff and review KSA beer from Four Point Beer Co.
Enjoy, and if you do, please take a moment to like the video. Thanks!
Oscar Martinez
I was born in the shadow of Dodger Stadium and immediately drenched in Dodger Blue. Chavez Ravine is my baseball cathedral, Vin Scully was the golden voice of summer all my life, and Tommy Lasorda remains the greatest Dodgers manager ever. My favorite things are coffee, beer, and the Dodgers beating the Giants. I also blog about my baseball card hobby at All Trade Bait, All the Time.
Follow Me:
That beer looks delicious!
Jonah Keri on why the Dodgers should be optimistic:
Three simple reasons:
First, the Dodgers feature the best quartet of starting pitchers among all playoff teams, with Clayton Kershaw backed by Yu Darvish and highly underrated lefties Rich Hill and Alex Wood.
Second, the Dodgers have addressed their bullpen woes in a more effective manner than we’ve seen in years. Kenley Jansen remains a superelite closer capable of dominating in both the regular season and postseason. But Brandon Morrow, Tony Cingrani, and Luis Avilan lead a revamped batch of setup and middle men who miss tons of bats and perplex opposing hitters with their many different looks.
Third, the Dodgers trotted out the most potent attack in the National League this year, with slugging rookie Cody Bellinger complementing Corey Seager and Justin Turner in a deep offense that’s even dangerous off the bench.
And finally, momentum means nothing. Specifically, how a ballclub fares in September has no correlation with how it will fare in October (once you adjust for other variables, such as the overall quality of said teams).
The Dodgers were an excellent bet to challenge for their first World Series in 29 years before they recently came unglued for a few weeks. They remain excellent bets to do so even after that rough patch.
Momentum in both ways right?
In other words having a bad September doesn’t mean anything but also playing at a high level in September also means nothing. Is that correct?
Looking at all World Series winners in the expansion era (1969-2016), there’s no significant correlation between late-season success and playoff success. Research by Rob McQuown of Baseball Prospectus showed that whether you look at the final 10 games of any given season, or longer intervals, teams that roll into October on a hot streak aren’t significantly more likely to make deep playoff runs than teams that reach the playoffs struggling through a cold snap. (This confirms another study by FiveThirtyEight back in 2014.)
Want examples? Examples!
Using two teams of recent vintage, we start with the 2001 Seattle Mariners. The all-time winningest team at 116-46, the M’s also rolled into the playoffs smoking hot, winning 17 of their final 23 games, 10 of their final 12. After knocking off Cleveland in the ALDS, they got rolled by the Yankees, falling in five games. Conversely, the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals staged one of the coldest finishes of any playoff team in major-league history, going 25-36 to end the season. They then rolled through the playoffs, taking the NLDS against the Padres in four games, the NLCS on a spinning Adam Wainwright Game 7 curveball, and the World Series in five games over the Tigers. In the process, the Cards became the least successful regular-season team ever to win the World Series, having gone just 83-78 that season.
Sticking to monster winning streaks, regardless of when in the season they occur, you can cherry-pick results here too. Before this year’s Lindors, three teams in the World Series era had won 20 or more games — the 1916 New York Giants (who had a tie in the middle of their 26-game streak, but MLB still counts it for some reason), the 1935 Chicago Cubs (21 straight), and the 2002 Oakland A’s (20 straight). None of the three went on to win it all that year.
So now the 64 million dollar question (reminds me of Crawford’s salary) is what determines success in the post season?
Given the tiny amount of games played (packaged as a series), it’s probably a random event. All teams probably have about the same chance of winning.
I think it comes down to mistakes. Scott alluded to this earlier, playing perfect baseball. Unfortunately I don’t think FAZ preach that type of baseball.
If you have a link to an article which purports to explain the likelihood of success in the post season I would appreciate it.
Luck and level of talent.
.
Madison Bumgartner getting ludicrously hot.
Mitch Moreland or Aaron Boone getting lucky.
You could examine the Dodgers Championship teams and see that the best team does not always win. In 55, the Dodgers had a great regular season. They were never really challenged for the pennant. They went into the series against the Yankees who had beaten them in every encounter. Brooklyn only had 3 pitchers with 10 or more wins. Newcombe had 20. The Yankees had a better staff. Hitting, both teams were good with a slight edge to the Dodgers. But it came down to a game 7 after the Yanks took the first 2 in NY, then the Dodgers swept them at Ebbets, and lost game 6 in the Bronx. Game 7 Podres started. The Dodgers got 2 RBI’s from Hodges and that was all. Alston made a defensive replacement in LF, pulling Gilliam and inserting Sandy Amoros. Amoros then saved the game when Berra sliced a line drive into the LF corner that Amoros caught inches from the wall……game essentially over. In 59 they had to win a playoff with the Braves and then faced the Go-Go White Sox and Luis Aparicio. They lost game 1, 11-0. But won 4 of the next 5. The hero? A relief pitcher named Larry Sherry who did not even spend the entire season on the team. He won 2 and saved 2 and was the series MVP. In 63, they had superior pitching to the Yanks and shut the Bombers down. 65, the Twins had much better hitters, and pretty decent pitching. Koufax actually lost the first game he pitched in the series, but the Twins just could not beat the Koufax Drysdale tandem. 81 was the culmination of the frustration of losing in 77 and 78. The core guys were in their last season together. But 2 other guys, Yeager and Guerrero stepped up along with Cey, and a kid named Fernando and they beat the Yanks. In 88, face it, the A’s were the better team. Shut down closer, great defense, solid starting pitching, and tons of power. Plus the Dodgers were without their leader after game 1. But Gibson’s game 1 HR set the tone, and they beat the mighty A’s shutting down Canseco and McGwire. And who fueled the run? A bunch of scrubs designated the Stuntmen. Best hitter in the series, and a lot of people forget this, Mickey Hatcher. He hit about .350 with 2 HR’s. Not always the best that wins.