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My latest Youtube video asks the question arising on more and more lips: Will Dave Roberts be fired by the Dodgers? Here’s my take.
Oscar Martinez
I was born in the shadow of Dodger Stadium and immediately drenched in Dodger Blue. Chavez Ravine is my baseball cathedral, Vin Scully was the golden voice of summer all my life, and Tommy Lasorda remains the greatest Dodgers manager ever. My favorite things are coffee, beer, and the Dodgers beating the Giants. I also blog about my baseball card hobby at All Trade Bait, All the Time.
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No he will not. In all likelihood he will get a new contract.
No. They won’t.
The team has until the All Star break. After that, changes might be made, but they will be roster moves, not the manager being fired.
Roberts will almost certainly not be fired by the FO that hired him unless there is a real outcry from the fan base against him. This FO only wants a monkey at the helm that will do as they direct him to. The FO is the ultimate cause of the demise and it is not due to any reset issues concerning taxes.
The Dodgers are essentially the same team that they were in the WS except for the injuries to Seager and Turner. That hurts, no doubt. But where is the depth that we were assured was there? They added Kemp who is currently our top player. Not one utility player or positional player has stepped up this year. We could argue that Grandal has improved and it does seem that he has. We also didn’t expect the hot start that Grandal had but as we can see, the cooling effect has begun but it isn’t as devastating as it was in years past. The other starters have slumped and no one to really boost the overall performance of the offense. The sophomore jinx to Bellinger has slowed him a bit, but not that much like Taylor.
The huge falloff has been in pitching. The starters have crashed. Injuries and plain old weakness are a regular thing. Wood had a fantastic season last year but he doesn’t seem capable of producing another one. There is no longer a #2SP or even a #3. And, for sure, there is no longer a #1 SP. The big loss is the bullpen. We have no depth at starting pitchers except Buehler. The bullpen looks to be a total rebuild that should begin ASAP. FAZ did nothing to help the pitching which was weak, IMO, for years. They were just squeaking by with their rotation after Kershaw. Got lucky with Wood for 1 season, lucky with Hill for a 1/2 season, and lucky with Maeda who did not deserve some of the wins he got because he didn’t pitch well and was saved by the bats. Maeda is really a reliever in disguise.
FAZ has never exhibited any talent to put together a pitching staff of solid talent. They relied on luck and this is the result when you go cheap and cheerful and bet on recovery from injuries sustained in acquired players. They’ve passed on real talent many times in favor of the cheap and cheerful route.
But most important overall, at this point, is where is the depth we were told we had? Especially when we need it most of all, NOW? If you are really planning in the FO for eventualities, which I thought they were, many of our difficulties should have been solved temporarily while we await the return of our top players. This is not the case. There are only excuses that the fans dream up and the spin that the FO offers the press. Enough said.
It seems to me that Arizona does not have the steam to either get to the WS or even win the West. Their strong point is pitching and defense. They are very good in those departments and limit the opposing team in era and batting avg. They don’t make many mistakes fielding, too. Their weakness is their batting. They’ve got some good HR hitters, all or nothing players, but are not driving in runs, not hitting anywhere near the league average.
The team(s) that look strong enough to overtake Arizona are the Giants and Colorado. Both have better hitting teams but their weakness is pitching. I’m not sure which is the stronger club between Giants and Rockies. But both have more than a semblance of balance with the Rockies having some superstars in their lineup ala Blackmon & Arenado. Giants have only Posey in this category but have nice chemistry and I think their pitching is underrated.
Forget the Dodgers this year. Not happening. I’d love to see the Giants depose Arizona. They could do it.
There is no way they can fire Roberts, it isn’t his fault what they gave him to work with in the bullpen.
Because the first year with this team, Roberts made lemonade out of the lemons in the bullpen, they gave him to work with.
Because Hatcher and Baez couldn’t be trusted to set up in games, so Roberts tried other pitchers, until he found his best set up guy, and that was Blanton.
But Roberts needs to use some of his own power, and try to do things with the offense, instead of waiting for a HR, or this team will continue to play like they are.
Because I haven’t seen so many 230, 240 hitters in the everyday line up, on any of the good teams, like we have, and the players with those low averages, are not going to come up with to many hits, when runners are in scoring position.
Because Roberts knows better, then this front office, especially Billy Bean’s right hand guy our GM, on how to make an offense run, when HRs and hits, are far and few between.
And remember our front office felt it was more important to sign Forsythe for another year, and give him a raise, and give Joc raise, then use that extra money for an arm in our pen.
Even though those two players had terrible seasons last year.
If there is no improvement he will be fired.
Over what time period pack?
It’s not even summer yet. We are 7.5 games out with 122 games left to play. If we stay within 8 games we won’t be eliminated until September 22nd.
I find talk of firing Roberts at this point comically knee jerk.
That said, I think it’s fine to analyze, criticize, conceptualize, assess and process, and come up with our own arm chair (in my case recliner) solutions to the problem.
e.g. – starting pitching…… find a couple 5 inning starter that will get 15 outs and keep you in the game and only throw 80 pitches in doing so. Stripling and Stewart, maybe Banuelos, maybe even Santana. Put Maeda in the pen until his WHIP drops from its current 1.53. This appears to be a very fragile group, a FAZ purchase policy, so I think giving them more recovery time is a must. How long have you heard me saying that? And I believe the results we are seeing prove me right. We need to DL rotate our bevy of starters through the heat of summer and along with that, as we said in the Marine Corps, we need to unf*ck the bullpen most ricky tick. I believe we need to carry an extra arm on the roster. That means one less for the bench but if our position starters are getting it done we can do that. A guy like Hernandez plays everywhere as does Barnes. Bellinger, Turner, Kemp, Taylor, Puig, Forsythe and Grandal just have to suck it up and grind it out.
I await some feedback.
Badger
If the Dodgers stay 8 games out they are playing better. .500 ball, right? He won’t be fired. If he continues losing ground at some point he will be fired. Can’t give you a date as we don’t know the stupidity of Dummy and we don’t know how much heat Freidman will take on his own job.
Badger, please don’t seem like you don’t know that YES men say anything to get a job and so if he told Friedman that he could work with the plan then he is still accountable and I suspect that is what he did. Dave Roberts agreed with everything the FO did in my opinion.
Finally Badger I will say this…I have never had the exposure to organized baseball as you have but did play the LL , and HS baseball but I believe that with my experience managing people and what little knowledge I possess using good coaches I could manage better than Roberts. EASY. You can’t be an eagle when surrounded by turkeys.I find no humor in the likes of FAZ and Roberts.
One other thing Badger, you continually want to try and work around a fix the flawed product that FAZ has provided and I think that is a mistake. Use your great knowledge of how a team should be run and how this one could be corrected doing it your way with no bad help from Roberts and FAZ. I used to tell people all the time “I will do it my way so if it fails it will be me”. Guess what, I was right way more than wrong. You don’t want to hear my way because I would talk about how to obtain good players , not the type you get from FAZ.
Package
That we agree on!
I think this is the right time for Roberts to put his foot down, and show the front office, there is more then one way, to score runs.
Because we do have players that have wheels on this team, and we should take advantage, of that speed.
We see it differently pack. First, I just don’t believe managers make that big a difference. 4-5 wins. That’s it over 162 games. Motivating players and controlling the clubhouse is important, and I have heard very little that suggests to me the players have a problem with Roberts.
I’ve never liked the FAZ model and have repeatedly stated my opinion on both that and what should be done. Since they arrived in ‘14 they’ve never followed my advice.
This year’s team is an enigma to me. The players that came through last year have not this year. And we’re one All Star down. We are kinda stuck here. There will be no raising of the payroll ceiling. We are at about $183mm with Maeda incentives that may take it higher. What to do? Since this is the mule we are riding, we may just have to ride it to the finish line.
I’ve suggested, mostly in private emails, that deals could be made for bullpen arms and a more better veteran presence on the bench. I don’t know who is out there but you can bet someone is. You look at what our replacement players have done in support and it’s unacceptable. Locastro, Valera, Verdugo, Farmer, Muncy – all mostly Mendoza players so far. All but Muncy sent back. Pitching? Look at the numbers! Venditte, Hudson, Cingrani, Garcia, Alexander, Font, Neal…. starters falling apart physically… wtf is a manager supposed to do when all the replacement parts are useless? You manage people, what do you do with defective parts to your organization? You find replacements. What if your replacements are f*ck ups?
I think, considering the payroll situation, our best option is stay the course and hope like hell the guys who did it last summer can do it again this summer. Maybe find those veteran professionals that can be had for little, maybe dig deeper within your own organization then steer the ship straight to the horizon. If Bellinger, Taylor, Barnes, Puig, Turner and Forsythe aren’t enough, we’re screwed this year.
When asked “what’s the most important thing to strive for” Saint Paltu said “accept your fate with a smile”. It’s just baseball pack. Accept it with a smile.
Badger
My point has always been that Dave knew what he was going to get in the way of players and he knew the game plan. If FAZ goes, so will Dave. You refer to salary limits and such and I don’t care what it costs because if the team wins, everybody makes money. They are in their 4th year and hopefully they will not be renewed. They certainly do not have the resume to continue. In answer to your question on what to do with defective players, it is simple, get more and better. If you get more bad players, get some more. I once told an area in my plant that I would fire every one of them except one, so he could tell the new guys what happened to the last crowd You know the old saying”If you are not good, get good” The Dodgers need solid players at every position and the pitching staff. That costs money and they must spend it. I would bet money if Ned had the time FAZ has had with this ownership, he would have won. I am not willing to live with the excuses that FAZ makes. They will say anything if you believe them.
Don’t hold your breath or pin your hopes on it Package.
They won’t spend it. Not this year. This year’s budget is spent. They are not going over it. By resetting they are lowering the cost to do business for the next 5 years.
Roberts job is simple, but it may not be easy. He needs to find ways to help all 25-40 players to maximize their potential. If going forward management feels he cannot do this, they will make a move. But not this year. In my opinion, if the current conditions continue, it would be cowardly to blame it on Roberts. Just read the stat page. This is on the players.
Ok so here is another take or two on this situation. Let me stress that this is strictly MY thoughts on this, so no I don’t have any secret knowledge or unnamed sources.
3 years ago I mentioned that perhaps other front offices (FO’s) don’t want to deal with FAZ because they are perceived as more ahead of everyone else in this metric/analytics game, and they seem to be sort of arrogant in the way they deal with others, OR at least it might be perceived” that way. And also the non- stop blatter about what a great farm system they were building. Hence the reason they had to go dumpster diving for free agents and were pretty much only able to do “trades” with their Alma Maters.
Well as time moved on other FO’s began to really embrace the metric/analytics side of player evaluations and potential trade partners. In the meantime the Dodgers won their division and/or pennant every year and they continued their “perceived” arrogant ways as thinking they are smarter than everyone else. I say this because we all know there a ton of blogs that bleed FAZ blue and then all the national media hyping what a great job they had done building so much DEPTH. If some player went down their vaulted/hyped farm system could just send in the next replacement. After all we pumped out depth like a soda pop machine…… right? And FAZ were loath to include any of their budding stars in any big name trades. Coles, Stanton etc…. Just to name a few. And I will say NOBODY knows what the other teams were asking for in those trades, even if “he” does say “he” knows for a fact. But I feel the other FO’s just basically told FAZ to FO, and let’s see how your stacked depth does when all of the dumpster fire acquisitions start to flame out or fall apart and all of the numbers 1’ 2’s 3’s prospects turn out to be only (drum roll please) suspects.
I truly feel FAZ doesn’t negotiate in good faith. They have the small market mentality that all the other clubs just want to squash them so they need to do something sneaky. Perhaps we only thought we were in on some of the big name trades. I say this because I just cannot wrap my head around how these big names were acquired for something comparable, or in some cases much less than we could have offered. It just doesn’t make sense. Yes everyone hates L.A. The other FO”s told FAZ to FO, I truly believe that!!!!
So here is my next point. Over the weekend I kept watching the look on Doc’s face when something didn’t work out, of which there were lots of opportunities. It almost looks like is starting to have the look of “do you really expect me to be able to anything with this bunch of utility/AAAA, past their prime, retreads that you given me? I am not totally defending Doc by any means. His in game management is SOOOOO bad I lose my voice screaming WHY!!!!!!! 5 times a night. As we have all said, he was a completely different player than the way he manages. I never saw him coach while he was with San Diego but maybe some of you have. Did he coach the way he played? I would bet yes. His agent no doubt touted his excellent career blah blah blah, then Doc did his own sell job and said yes to everything. I have no doubt that he won job by being a total yes man. He has no business being a big league manager in the second biggest sports market in the country. He is an outstanding coach I have zero doubt. Sometimes you are a much better coach than a manager. I am sure many of us see it every day in our own business lives.
Yes, it is very hard when the heart of your line up is on the DL and your supposed once in a lifetime pitcher starts to show his age. But a good FO has plans for that. They tried but to this point have failed. The problem I see is this has all been a ruse. When the tide went out we all realized the emperor has no clothes.
Well that is my elongated 2 cents.
Cheers Boys and Girls!!!!
SLO Tim off the bench with a double off the wall.
Well said my friend.
We need only to look at the replacement numbers, which I just did, to know our depth is not working. Venditte, Font, Alexander, Neal, Valera, Locastro, Verdugo, Hudson, Garcia, Cingrani, Chargois – none leap off the page, most quite frankly suck. Muncy, hitting .236 but OPS’n .788 has been merely ok. Last year we had Bellinger step in and make everyone, including Roberts, better.
Tim may be right. Nobody wants to do us any favors. But deals are always out there to be made. I believe mid May is a bit early to overreact. If Roberts is a decent manager he will get Barnes, Taylor, Bellinger and Puig off the floor. Forsythe will hit better than .174. Honeycutt will figure out the pitching. It will get better. If that doesn’t happen, it will be a different trade deadline for us.
Salary will not be added. Genius will be tested. I think it’s going to be fun.
Tim
That is exactly why I didn’t take Roberts seriously, when he said this team’s offense, was about HRs and walks.
Because he has been under stress, and we know our GM mentioned the team was not hitting enough HRs earlier in that week, so I think Roberts just blurted out, what our GM said earlier in the week, to try to say this is not on him, this is coming from the front office..
Well as I have stated in previous posts, I do not think much of Dave’s in game skills. I did not think much of Mattingly’s either. Dave Roberts is the 10th manager in the Dodgers 60 years in LA. When you figure that Lasorda and Alston managed 38 of those years, it means the rest of them averaged a little over 3 years on the job since. And remember that Glenn Hoffman had the job for only half a year when Russell was fired. Davey Johnson had the worst winning percentage at .503. Roberts is the only one with a winning percentage over .600. His teams have already won more games than Russell’s, Johnson’s and Little’s. His teams have more playoff appearances than Tracy’s, Little’s, or Russell. And he has as many as Joe Torre did. To me, Torre was very good in game. He never once made what I considered a knee jerk in game decision. It seemed his moves were well planned. That aside, I do not think that the FO will fire Dave no matter what the Dodgers final standing is. There are a couple of reasons I believe this, 1. He buys into all their theory’s, and methods. He is the ultimate company guy. He has been from the day he was hired. He and the FO have constant talks about the sabermetrics and what player is best suited to play where on such and such a day, and this is known because Roberts himself has stated that they talk a lot. 2. Just yesterday, Friedman made a statement on some site, I cannot remember which, Dodger Blue maybe, that he feels that Dave Roberts is exactly the right manager for the Dodgers at this time. To me, that says it all and is the bottom line.
An offense of HRs, and walks, works much better on paper then it does in games, because players are not machines, and because of that, their production will fluctuate throughout the season.
And an offense based on HRs and walks, especially won’t work, when a team has a couple of their best players out on the DL that they expect to get HRs from.
And since Corey won’t be coming back this year, they better adjust and find another way to score runs.
And maybe if the team learns how to score runs in more ways then just one way, they will do better in the post season, even if some of our star players are not hitting as well, as they can.
Rosenthal asks the question everyone here is asking (in different ways):
Are the reeling Dodgers really this bad or can they turn their season around?
It’s quite a good article, but it’s PPV so I won’t copy much of it.
https://theathletic.com/353492/2018/05/14/rosenthal-are-the-reeling-dodgers-really-this-bad-or-can-they-turn-their-season-around/
Here’s a tidbit:
“We joke. We feel like we say this every other day,” Chris Taylor said. “We’ll say, ‘Oh, I figured it out. Today’s the day. I’m never losing this feeling.’” And then, as quickly as it comes, the feeling disappears.
The notion of the Dodgers trading for Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado to replace the injured Corey Seager — a topic of discussion only a week ago — is laughable. At the moment, the Dodgers look more like sellers than buyers. Maybe potential free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal can fetch a prospect or two.
The Dodgers’ run differential of -1 suggests they are experiencing a measure of poor luck and should be closer to .500. But few in baseball want to hear the team’s excuses, which include a desire to stay under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold.
A lot on Roberts too. I recommend reading and subscribing, but it’s money.
Bluto
Could you please post more of the ending of the article? I saw this part on Rosenthal’s twitter account.
I’d rather not Package, but I’m not sure what part you are referencing….
Bluto
It is OK, I understand. If you don’t feel good about it, don’t do it. Don’t think I want to spend the money for their expertise.
How much does it cost? Can’t seem to locate that information.
You have to look up the athletic on the web there Badger. It is a subscription service, and I thought it was a little pricey
Interesting, the cost is $72 bucks a year. That’s six bucks a month.
Without being rude, why do you find that pricey? Is it because so much other content online is free?
Badger
I understand your position and that is exactly what FAZ would say or help and develop the players you have. They are all about making money, not winning championships. You are right, performance on the field is paramount but Roberts clearly bought in to the FAZ plan so unfortunately for him, somebody has got to be accountable and that is Roberts. His only hope is to at least win the Division.
Championships make the organization a ton of money. They want one, as do we, but is their’s the model to get one? We all have our doubts about that.
I respect your opinion on this pack, and to be honest starting over with new management would surprise me but certainly wouldn’t disappoint me. I just have a gut feeling this year is more about retooling the finances, not winning a championship. They want it all right, but not at the expense of what it would mean for 2019 and beyond.
I think this final paragraph is correct.
Cano suspended 80 games.
They need a second baseman. We need a lead off hitter and we can’t raise salary.
Seattle has a back up centerfielder they may want to get in the lineup. We send them Forsythe and some vague crypto coin to be named later and we get Dee Gordon. Spark one. We need spark two. A veteran, but not Hill old, pitcher.
(This message brought to you by a stimulating e-conversation with a blog buddy.)
Unless some powerful players have a personal beef with him, why fired him?
He isnt the reason why they won and he isnt the reason why the team is playing poorly.
With the news of Cano, we NOW know why the players are starting off so slow.
Got this in the mail today:
“This is what I think might happen with the Dodgers in the next few years:
Puig will be traded or allowed to leave in free Agency. They seem to have an adequate supply of outfielders on the way up.
Same for Grandal, he’s going to get expensive and they seem to have a surplus of catchers.
Kemp will be traded, probably in July. No shortage of cheaper outfielders.
Joc will survive as an average or slightly under, outfielder. He will not make a lot of money.
Forsythe is gone, there won’t even be a ripple in the water.
Turner will be Turner for a couple more years before he turns into a pumpkin.
Taylor may become a regular at second, short, or centerfield, or he may be the next Kike. By the way, I think Kike would be more productive than Forsythe for the remainder of this season, as good an average but much more power.
Seager will hold a job, second, third, or short.
Bellinger will not be the superstar he was last year but he may be good enough to keep first base. If not, any position player in the organization who can hit enough to keep the job can easily be trained to be an adequate first baseman.
I won’t get into the pitchers because I don’t like or trust pitchers. They are responsible for every game the team loses. Think about it, if a position player never gets a hit or gets on, it is still a tie game until a pitcher gives up a run.”
Anyone care to comment?
Attn Blog Buddy
Surely you don’t think Verdugo, Joc, and Kiki make up the outfield. Guess you think the kids will get it done just like they are doing this year? I am looking forward to the World Series.heeheehee
I totally disagree on Kike. He is hitting under the Mendoza line as a starter and over .400 off the bench. Start him less, and use him off the bench more…simple.
Badger
I see where the Dodgers get rid of a whole bunch of guys but get nothing in return. Do you believe this?
Define nothing.
well, tell me who is the return for the loss of Kemp, Puig? Also this looks a lot like a bunch of small town team management. I don’t think the good folks of So Cal are going for that.
Those aren’t my thoughts, I have no idea who they get for Kemp. Surely you believe they have tried to move him. If they could do it, they could afford Machado.
I have no idea what corner outfielders might be available, but Verdugo is in our outfield next year or he is traded for somebody a couple years more ready.
I wouldn’t trade Puig, unless someone blew me away with an offer. He’s still arb eligible for ‘19, free agent in ‘20.
The guy said “the next few years”. What to do this year? I’ve said what I would try to do.
Badger
Not trying to get you down. You have given your thoughts and I guess with the best interests of the club. Unfortunately I just hate that the management won’t budge on solid players. I love your idea to get Machado but I just know that they won’t try and they will continuely tell us that they will. Sorry to be so negative. You know Badger Manny would really help us long term.
D-Backs lose Pollack for 4-8 weeks with a broken hand.
Mr. Norris
That is the break we have been looking for!!! I don’t wish Pollack ill will but maybe we can get some mileage from this. Let’s go blue!!!!!!!!!!! Sure could use Roberts on board.
Mr. Norris
Guess what?? I am headed for the Hall of Fame next week. My Grandson and me will leave Tuesday and head up there. I hope we get to see most of things, we shall see.
Package
I hope you and your grand son, have a great time in Cooperstown NY!
I envy you my friend. It is my dream to go there. I got close when I was driving trucks, but not close enough…Have a great time and make sure you check out the Babes locker.
Same crap different time zone.
.234
.216
.237
.250
.222
.160
.204
.232
We sent 11 position players to the plate and these are the averages of 8 of them.
We aren’t the worst team in the NL. Yet.
Badger
How many pitchers are going to want to walk any of those hitters?
But Turner did hit the ball hard three times.
100% the offense is the issue.
50% wrong. The offense and the bullpen are both issues. The bullpen blew that game last night and the offense contributed. Everyone expects Turner to be great right out of the chute. He hit some balls hard, but it will be a couple of weeks before he is in sync. Forsyhte was the same old same old……8 straight losses to pitchers with ERA’s over 5….EMBARRASSING. Biggest thing I noticed last night….they are showing the frustration…….
Would someone please inform Zaidi that the Dodgers smoked them Marlins……
Yes, the Dodgers blasted 2 homers. Them weak hitting Marlins couldn’t even hit 1 out. Of course the Dodgers won the game. Can’t win at baseball if you don’t hit homers.
What an idiot!!!!
Chili
I agree whole heartedly!
And walks are not a given, because a pitcher must walk a hitter, it isn’t like hitters, can control a pitcher.