The Dodgers were on the verge of winning game 4 of the World Series on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium. The victory would have tied the series and given them an edge with Clayton Kershaw scheduled to start game five and three games remaining in the fall classic. Everything was setup in the Dodgers favor and the Boston Red Sox were at a distinct tactical disadvantage with no DH, a depleted bullpen and several regulars slumping and injured.
When Yasiel Puig bombed a monstrous three-run home run to give the Dodgers a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the sixth Dodger Stadium erupted with excitement. Chavez Ravine was frothing with impending joy. After the Dodger’s thrilling 18-inning seven hour win in game 3 and a four-run lead in the seventh inning of game 4, the boys in blue were setup nicely for a series-tying win. Everyone could taste the possibilities. The Dodgers were only two wins away from finally ending the thirty-year championship drought.
Then the wheels fell off and it all started with an ill-advised decision to remove starting pitcher Rich Hill in the top of the seventh inning. Hill reported to manager Dave Roberts that he should keep an eye on him in case he got tired. Roberts took that as an indication that he should immediately fall back to his crutch, going to another stupid bullpen matchup.
Up until that point, Hill was breezing. Nay, he was dominating. Hill had allowed just one hit and after a lead-off walk had struck out Xander Bogaerts. With one out and the Dodgers desperately needing a win, out came Roberts to do what 50,000 Dodger fans were begging him not to do. He hooked Hill and went to a beleaguered bullpen. What followed was an unimaginable nightmare. Only this has happened before.
In the 2017 World Series against the Astros Roberts did the same thing. He pulled Rich Hill from a game in which he was pitching very well, albeit earlier than on Saturday night. That choice in game 2 of the World Series last year against the Astros set off a chain of events that cost the Dodgers the game and eventually the series. This time around the results were far worse and far more destructive.
Roberts called upon left hander Scott Alexander, the ground ball specialist who can’t throw strikes. Alexander who was left off the NLCS roster threw four straight balls walking the only hitter he faced. With logic once again staring Roberts in the face, he defied it bringing in over-the hill (no pun-intended) aging reliever Ryan Madson. After recording one out, Madson gave up a massive three-run home run to Boston pinch-hitter Mitch Moreland that almost landed in the Dodger Stadium parking lot. That cut the Dodger lead to 4-3 within a blink of an eye.
The air was immediately sucked out of Chavez Ravine like a vacuum. Kenley Jansen was asked once again to get six outs and preserve a one-run lead. He couldn’t do it again. Only one day removed from blowing a 1-0 lead in game 3 on Friday night, Jansen served up a score-tying home run to Steve Pearce and the flood gates opened. For the record, that is the third World Series game that he has blown in his legendary Dodger career.
After the Dodgers left runners on first and third in the bottom of the eighth when Yasmani Grandal struck out, (what else is new?) the rest of the Dodger bullpen (Dylan Floro, Kenta Maeda, and Alex Wood) all gassed from the marathon game the night before proceeded to allow the Red Sox to score five more runs in the top of the ninth to put the Dodgers in an unbeatable hole. The score was 9-4 Boston and Dodger fans headed for the exits to beat the traffic out of the stadium. The Dodgers did score twice in the bottom of the ninth incredibly on a two-run homer from Enrique Hernandez off of Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel, but it was not nearly enough to overcome the hellish collapse that had already taken place.
Look the Red Sox are just a better team. The Dodgers would have to beat the Boston squad three consecutive games with the last two at Fenway Park to win the World Series. It’s not gonna happen people. Believe whatever you want to. Cling to whatever hope or optimism you like, that’s the reality. But what do the Dodgers do in the offseason? How do the Dodgers get over the hump and finally win a championship?
I don’t know if you can blame this all on Roberts. Granted the Dodgers are a very good club. They’ve won consecutive National League pennants and that’s extremely difficult to do. The Dodgers are here because of an array of talent and smart management. Sure you could fire Roberts, or Andrew Friedman and I wouldn’t shed a tear, but would that really solve the problem?
So what is the problem? To me, the problem is an organizational one. A lack of fundamental baseball approach and strategies are to blame for this more than anything. I would like to see a change in philosophies for next season. A return to preaching making contact, moving runners over, playing hot bats and sticking with pitchers who are getting guys out over matchups, analytics, and over reliance on ineffective or aging relievers is what is needed.
Matchups and analytics are just tools that if used in moderation can help you win. But if that’s your only strategy and you forgo basic baseball skills like putting runners in motion, making contact, and going with your gut then those become a hindrance instead of a winning strategy. The key is moderation and the Dodgers have binged on matchups all season long. I would love to see a matchup-free 2019.
But this will never happen. The Dodgers will never win a championship anytime soon. It’s unbelievable to me because every other club has won one within the last thirty years. The Astros won one under A.J. Hinch, their first in franchise history. The evil Giants won three disgusting titles under Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean thanks to a mix of strong pitching, baseball fundamentals and contact hitting. The Red Sox (once they beat the Dodgers in this series) will have won their fourth over the last fifteen years. The Yankees have won hundreds of titles since then. The Cubs got their championship in 2016. Heck even the Angels have won one under Mike Scioscia not long ago. The Angels won a World Series! The Angels, one of the most inept organizations in baseball still managed to grab a ring within that time span.
No, this is a curse. It’s an organizational problem that has infested every nook of the Dodgers. It all starts and ends with the stupid matchups and data over common sense. Generations of Dodger fans have grown up without ever having seen the Dodgers hoist the World Series trophy. The 1988, 1981 Dodgers didn’t gag in the World Series because guys like Tommy Lasorda, Fred Claire, and Al Campanis drilled those basic baseball fundamentals into the player’s heads. Sure they lost a few series along the way, but they at least won a couple. Unfortunately that era is long dead and guys like Friedman, Zaidi hail from small markets like Tampa Bay and Oakland where they are unfamiliar with championships and what it takes to win one.
All I ask is for the Dodgers to at least win one more game before the cold empty winter envelops us. Don’t let another team celebrate a championship that we can’t win on the hallowed field of Dodger Stadium. Make those guys win it in Boston. I’m not asking for much here. The Dodgers are officially the Buffalo Bills of baseball and I hate it.
Scott
Very well said. I too hope that the Red Sox have to win the series at Boston and not at Dodger Stadium.
Heartbroken here after last night’s game. Hate to see Kershaw having the load put on his shoulders again. Hope the team can give him the support he deserves and the relievers can be a “bull”pen not a “lamb”pen. Go Blue.
Scott, I’m feeling you today. Everyone wants a scapegoat and no one is setup better than Roberts to be that. But the real problems the Dodgers have are the players who don’t execute and play smart, consistently. The FO brought in all the talent you see in the last 2 years and blew the series last year, and had a terrible season this year by all accounts of the fans. Yet they had enough to get here both years. Both years we saw major slumps during the season, injuries, and pitching decline. We saw a big decline in defense this year, plus poor base running. Not until we got Manny did the base running improve and the base stealing begin to pick up. Bunting, too. But this team does not show up with their offense every game. Too many games of 5 hits or fewer. This puts pressure on both starters and bullpen. We need to get rid of the dead weight hanging on this team’s neck. We need speed and contact hitters. We’ve got plenty of muscle already. We saw improvements from Joc and Kike but they are not true starters as neither plays consistently well throughout a season. Both do well as utility guys with good defensive skills and we need that. But we need starters who are going to rise above a .250 BA and be a threat every game, not striking out 30% of the time.
Grandal must go along with Barnes. Offensive and defensive liabilities between them. Game killing problems. We need a major outfielder with speed and a bat that can hit both right and left handed pitchers. Kemp is not the answer.
We need an overhaul of the pitching staff, both starters and pen. We have problems with both. 3 starters were demoted to the bullpen, Wood, Stripling, and Maeda. I would be very happy not seeing Wood or Maeda back. How does a pitcher go from 16-3 in 2017 to a failed reliever in one year? Maeda is just a struggling hack. He is not a starter and not a reliever. Trade him. Buehler is a star, Kershaw is fading but serviceable, Ryu just can’t seem to push himself over the edge yet, and Hill is just plain getting old, but still serviceable. We need another major starter.
Bullpen-look for another closer. Kenley is damaged goods. He was wonderful for some years but he is not the same pitcher today. The same for Kershaw. Decisions have to be made regarding Chargois, Venditte, and Floro. Madson and Axelrod should be let go. They need to decide what Stripling and Ferguson’s role will be, starters or bullpen. And, of course Urias, who has looked good. Is he ready to start? He looks a lot stronger. He and Buehler could be our future.
I’m afraid I have lost the faith in Kershaw to handle the big games. His playoff history is a real blemish. He’s lost a lot. He’s not chopped liver, but the Dodgers cannot afford to pay him top dollar to retain him and should not consider him their ace in the future. It’s going to be a painful decision for him and the team come contract time.
They need to go after Manny and drop Dozier. Sign Freese if it’s reasonable and make Muncy a starter. If he can play 2B, it will solve some problems for us. Freese and Bellinger can handle 1B. Bellinger has so much potential but his year had so many problems. Power outage as well as SO bug caught from Taylor. He slumped heavily. I’m on the fence about Taylor. He led the majors in SO’s. The team needs to be shaken up.
guess who took hill out when he was pitching a no hitter ..yes the same guy .. kershaw should now go to texas ..he is not the same pitcher he was… and need a different closer…if he gave up a single that would be different ..but it always is a home run..
OMG.
Is Scott calling for an organizational rethink? A cleansing of an infestation?
Here’s a tip. You can’t win the World Series without getting there.
True Bluto but you can’t win a world series with matchups being your only strategy
Exactamundo Scott, and Roberts threw Hill under the bus saying Hill said to watch him because he was running out of gas……I doubt that……Orioles signed Machado, Gilbert Machado, a SS to a contract. How about this, the Brewers fired their pitching coach, Lee Tunnel, after his pitchers won 96 games! Their hitting coach quit and they also fired their trainer! Wow. Worst post season decision so far………adding Madson and Alexander to the roster. Leaving Chargois and Ferguson off.
Great write up Scott. And yeah Bluto you cannot win unless you get there, but the object is to win, not just get there. Great points Jeff. You all have made solid statements. Now for some reality. Jansen has 3 years left on his deal. Kemp, well Matt was a salary dump pick up who fooled everyone and made the team, and if not for his first half play, they would never have been close enough to get here in the first place. He is 34, and has 1 year left on his contract. I think they will try and find a taker for him over the off season and will probably pay some portion of the 19 million he is owed. As for Kershaw, well, it is all on CK’s shoulders. He can opt out and look for greener pastures, or he can stay a Dodger for his guaranteed 70 million. Kersh is still a good pitcher, but he is not a great pitcher, so the chances of him getting a really huge deal like he did the first time are a lot slimmer. My take, he stays and collects the guaranteed money instead of a deal that will not pay him substantially more than he will get the next 2 years. Just a guess. Grandal will be allowed to check out free agency and I doubt they make him a qualifying offer because that is going to be in the area of 17.6 million this year. Jeff, you made a point about contact hitters. Verdugo and Toles fit that description. But as for Machado, I think they might offer him something, but no where near what another team is going to offer. They have Seager, he is younger and the best part for FAZ, a hell of a lot cheaper. They do not have to get into a bidding war with any other team. And with him, Turner, Muncy and Bellinger on the infield, they have a solid defense. I would pursue a trade with Miami to see if they can get Realmuto to be their #1 catcher. There are no real great options at that position on the free agent market. Their own prospects, Smith and Ruiz are both at least a year away. Smith was at AAA for a short time and really struggled. Ruiz made it up to Tulsa and had a decent year. Dozier will be gone, I think they will offer Freese a deal. He is a solid player and can fill in for Turner, or play first. Madson and Axford, Venditte will all be gone as will Hudson. I would use both Wood and Maeda as trade bait. Barnes has some value there too but until they decide on a starting catcher he will at least be kept as a backup until the kids are ready. They have some decent relievers in the minors with live arms. Joe Broussard pops to mind. 96 plus on the gun, and he is a short man, so he can spell Jansen, or even Baez. Then again, there are a ton of relievers on the market this offseason. I do not think, and this is just an opinion, that they go after any of the high priced guys, Harper or Machado. It will be interesting to watch. As for todays game, I think they will go all out to win. They have done well this year in elimination games winning all of them. Considering that they had to watch the Astros celebrate on their home turf last year, they are not going to want to watch that again. I think they win and send the series back to Boston. That is of course as long as Roberts doesn’t do something really stupid again. One last thing. I do think that Roberts will get a new contract. I do not remember a manager being fired after getting to a world series since 1960. The Yankees fired Casey Stengel and hired Ralph Houk after losing to Pittsburgh in the 1960 series.
You mean the matchup strategy that got them there?
That seems a spurious and silly argument.
Michael’s post below is excellent.
If Package is reading, I hope you read my response yesterday. My dummy comment was made to be a play on words, not a direct accusation.
Matchups don’t win pennants or championships Bluto. Talent does. They have a lot of talent which is what got them to the world series.
Ultimately matchups are a flawed and worthless strategy. It’s guesswork. A rolling of dice. That’s why they used to call it playing the percentages much like a game of blackjack. It fails more often than it works which is why it’s better to use common sense like say leaving in a dominant pitcher who is getting outs instead of going to a lesser pitcher based on a percentage.
Exactly……A lot less talented Dodgers teams won with a lot less offense, but superior pitching. 1959, and 1988 the best examples……the 63 team had no where near the offense the Yankees had. But they had Koufax, Drysdale, and Podres, and Perranoski to close em out. They swept the better team. The teams of the 50’s had great hitters, but the Yankees had the pitching so they lost 3 of 4 series to the bombers. Analytics are good for figuring out tendencies, but in real time, they are worthless.
This is a silly hill to die on Scott. And one with a self-defeating foundation:
Let’s look, shall we:
“matchups are a flawed and worthless strategy.”
Um, worthless?
“It’s guesswork.”
It’s the opposite of guesswork. It’s using analytics and performance metrics to help drive decisions. That’s called informed decision making, the literal opposite of guessing.
“It fails more often than it works”
Um, obviously wrong. See Dodger, the.
If you allow me, I’d say your argument should be:
Perhaps it is not ideal to follow analytics dogmatically through every decision in a game.
EVEN BETTER:
Perhaps it is not ideal, to not address the bullpen at the trading deadline when a team knows it is a problem.
You can do better Scott. You should do better.
You’ve essentially proved my theory correct. You’re basically agreeing with me.
“Perhaps it is not ideal to follow analytics dogmatically through every decision in a game.”
BINGO
But that just illustrates my original point. Matchups don’t work, and trying to tie them into analytics only gets you more failure. Do me favor though, prove to me that matchups work and have been a winning strategy for the Dodgers. Can you do that? I’m guessing no as there is no definitive matchup stat that can tell us without doubt that these ridiculous matchups work. Again, it’s guesswork and akin to believing in Santa Claus or the Easter bunny. Occasionally it may work based on luck, but normally it’s like rolling a dice in blackjack. They’ve binged on this matchup based guesswork all season long but talent and depth is what has gotten them to the World Series, not matchup strategies. I would and can argue that matchup strategies have nearly destroyed them, causing them to blow several games down the stretch and in this postseason. You are correct in the balance statement, which is what I wrote about in my article. using Data and matchups within moderation is fine, but when it becomes your only strategy and is constantly used in every single game becomes a total liability.
Of course I can do that. Look at the stats for the last two months of the year, when the team leaned into platoons.
You cannot laud the teams talent and depth and lament the matchups.
Now do me a favor:
Tell me how my worry about Dogmatic adherence analytics matches up with your silly statement about matchup’s not working
Ok but you still can’t produce the stats that prove matchups work. Where is that stat that tracks the results of when a reliever is brought in based on matchups and gets the guy out? splits don’t prove it. But why can’t I lament the matchup, a flawed strategy? It’s led to so many losses this year. Talent and baseball fundamentals over matchups any day for me.
“Tell me how my worry about Dogmatic adherence analytics matches up with your silly statement about matchup’s not working”
Are you trying to bait me into a matchup here Bluto….. 😉 Sorry but I’m not going to the pen, my pitch count is fine and I am feeling spry.
Scott.
Are you dense? Can you not read?
The stats are there. Baseball Reference. It’s not hard. Look at the stats for when the Dodgers went to matchup heavy lineups. If you can’t figure out how to get to them, I will show you.
What the hell is “bait me into a matchup” suppose to mean. Just answer my question. How does my questioning a dogmatic adherence to analytics mean that I am agreeing that platoons and matchups are a bad strategy.
Don’t match-up, just explain what how you came to that conclusion.
OK, maybe asking you to look up stats is too much of a burden.
Here:
September/October for the team:
OPS: .849 (the highest of the season.)
OPS+ 135 (highest)
BABIP .326 (highest)
And, for Michael and MJ,
BA: .274 (Highest.)
Sorry Bluto, but those numbers still don’t prove matchups work. Maybe splits vs. lefties/righties could, but still those are not granular enough to provide results for every matchup from game to game.
OK.
Keep moving the goalposts. I show you stats that the team performed markedly better when they moved to a matchup driven line-up. It’s not enough, what would be?
What kind of stats would satisfy you?
I’m still waiting on the other answer.
Those stats you provided are overall team stats. So I’m still waiting for you to show me the stats that prove matchups work more than they don’t.
When the team went to match heavy lineups (September and October)
Their individual stats went up.
they went up “more than they don’t” because they went up to a level above when the team didn’t use a match-up heavy lineup.
If this doesn’t work, I can’t help you.
I’m still waiting on the other bit.
I think we’ll have to just agree to disagree on this Bluto. But we both can agree that the Dodgers are the Buffalo Bills of baseball
They’ll only be the Bills if they don’t win a World Series. The more they get there, the better the chances they’ll win.
You know what else supports the match-up strategy? The team’s performance vs. lefties and righties. Hint: They also go up when the team leaned into matchup heavy lineups.
I showed you stats, you’ve shown me nothing to support your “matchups don’t work and trying to tie them into analytics” nonsensical point. You can agree to disagree. I only ask when you make contentions be prepared to back them up.
That said, I’m not nearly as sure as Michael that Roberts returns.
Matchups do not always pan out. Over the course of the season how many games did they lose when Roberts went for the match up and it did not work? I am not sure of a number, but I remember quite a few times that he pulled guys who were not really in trouble and the game immediately went to pot. I would rather have had a tired effective Hill out there for 2 more outs than Madson coming in, and then leaving him in to face a lefty. Jansen in the 8th inning historically, has not been a good idea. He pitched 2 innings the night before and did exactly the same thing. Gave up the game tying homer. In 2 World Series Jansen has allowed 4 home runs. 3 of them have tied games and the other one cost the Dodgers a win in last years series. Dave micro manages. In the 2 series they have made it to, he seems to micro manage more than he does during the regular season. He needs to trust who got him there, and obviously he did not trust Hill with a 4 run lead. That was a bad decision. Hill got charged with 1 run last night. But it was all on the bullpen. A massive fail caused by one bad decision. 18 innings the night before, 11 of them by the pen, and only 1 run allowed. 2 2/3 innings of relief last night and 8 runs allowed. They lost a game that they never should have. The bullpen as a whole gets the bulk of the blame, but this one was all on the manager. Heads will roll this offseason, most of them will belong to players who will not be back. But the front office should get some of the blame and it will not happen because the owners are making a ton of money because they got to the series. The only owner who seems serious about winning is one who knows what winning is all about. Magic Johnson. Enough of the dumpster diving, either grow your own, or purchase or trade for some people who actually know how to get hitters out. 30 years and still counting. You can bet that Giants fans are sitting there laughing their ass off at the Dodgers ineptitude.
I doubt the Giants fan are laughing at the Dodgers success. They may, perhaps, be laughing at their own ineptitude.
Oh they’re laughing alright. They won three championships, even if that was years ago. They figured it out. Unfortunately the Dodgers can’t.
Scott
The sad part is the Dodgers could have won just before they were sold but chose to make some changes that were unnecessary and did not add where necessary. Instead we wait and they management cannot get all the right pieces for a WS win. They just make excuses and most just buy it.
I can’t blame them for the midseason moves. Some have been good and others awful. It’s been a mixed bag for me. Freese has been great. Dozier has been pathetic. Darvish was a disaster. Hill has been an excellent pitcher. Wood has been pretty good too most of the time. Machado, well up and down with him. Madson has been horrendous. Watson, ad Cingrani were both terrific.
You read but you do not comprehend. They are laughing at the Dodgers inability to win the series. I said nothing about their getting to the playoffs. I am sure Giant fans would love to see the black and orange back in the series. But since I have Giant fans in my family, and am in a position to hear it from them every day, I can guarantee you that next to being in the series, seeing the Dodgers flounder in their back to back appearances is the next best thing. They are laughing at the Dodgers not winning it all.
Well, it is the 6th game of the W.S. and still Kemp sits. Everyone is OK with it and writes him off as washed up or some other wording. Matt Kemp has carried this team and even when he has not played kept a good attitude. I do not know why they will not let him play but it is wrong. A pinch hitting assignment is not enough for a player who has contributed as much as he has. This has just about finished me. I hope the Dodgers win but I am not confident.
5th game there Pack. And I like you think sitting Matt is a bad idea. He homered his first at bat and since then has not really gotten more than a token PH at bat since. Makes no sense to me that the guy who led your team in RBI’s during the season and also had the highest batting average with runners in scoring position has spent a bulk of this series on the bench. He was the DH in game 1 and on the bench in game 2. It to me is asinine. He also was the most clutch hitter on the team. He did not get the same amount of playing time in the 2nd half because he went into a skid after the all star game. I can see giving him a breather, but Roberts and company basically made him invisible and nothing more than a pinch hitter and occasional starter.
Scott, you could make a list of all the moves FAZ has made since they took over and about 10% have panned out. Most of the names they have signed or traded for have been mediocre or worse. Their big name pick ups have been a mixed bag. Darvish had a few good outings and then totally disappeared when they needed him the most. Machado, although he has been good on defense for the most part, regressed as a hitter and was no where near the hitter he was earlier in the year in Baltimore. Their big name free agent signing, Tom Koehler has not thrown an inning since spring. Freese was a great pick up. Dozier, Axford, and Madson mediocre. All teams do this of course. Lots of waiver wire pick ups hoping for that diamond in the rough. Muncy and Kemp did way more than the Dodgers expected of them. Kemp was not even supposed to be here. It was addition by subtraction with Matt. A couple of guys who did pretty well early are out with injuries and I think that has hurt the pen. Hudson, who throws in the high 90’s and Goeddel, both have been missed and they filled vital spots in the back end of that pen. I think bringing Alexander back, who has had control problems all year was a mistake. They should have left Ferguson on the roster and dumped Alexander and maybe Wood. I also do not understand why they gave up so early on Venditte who was pitching very well out of the pen. His versatility if nothing else was a great asset. After this season is over, I am going to look over the trades and signings by FAZ since they have arrived. There are so many that were nothing more than minor league fodder and never did nothing for the team. Part of their depth I guess.
Muncy starting at 2nd tonight. Freese leading off. Pretty much the same lineup as last night. Bellinger in CF.
Well, the series is in game 5 and we have Kike batting 3rd. Who’s fault is that? Kike starts the evening with a hit into a double play after Freeze homers and Turner walks. What a rally buster!!
Scott,
Analytics are about probabilities. Probabilities include matchups. How can you say matchups don’t work? You can say that they don’t always work, but analytics will show what works many times, not every time.
Making ultimate statements don’t work for the very same reason. Logic is not an exact science. It can only go so far. The human brain analyzes options for action at blazing speeds every second. It can make mistakes that are sometimes life threatening.
Kershaw has already given up 3 HR’s in this game. Can we say that teams have figured him out or has he simply been worn away over time like the rest of us?
Kershaw is one of the biggest chokers in postseason history. Age and innings have caught up to him. Injuries as well. Analytics are a great tool, if used in moderation. But the team and organization can’t win a championship. They’ve reached the postseason six consecutive seasons and choke every year. They are the Buffalo Bills of baseball. It’s pathetic.
You know who has the biggest analytics department in the MLB?
The Astros.
You know who else have massive analytics departments?
The Yankees,
The Cubs,
The Red Sox
and
The Dodgers
You know what’s common to those teams? They made the playoffs. You know what you need to do to win the World Series? Make the playoffs.
Making the playoffs isn’t pathetic, it’s exceptional. Those two words are opposites.
Yet they can’t win a championship. It’s now six consecutive failures. Making the playoffs is great but the Dodgers are now in the same company as the Buffalo Bills of NFL, modern Oakland A’s and the rest of the second place losers. But awesome on the analytics getting us second place and division titles.
BTW Bluto, Astros, Yankees, Cubs and Red Sox have all won World Series titles in the last thirty years. Dodgers have won none.
If analytics driven teams get to the playoffs.
And
If analytics driven teams get to the World Series
And
If analytics driven teams get to win the World Series
Then it only makes sense that fans like Scott doesn’t want the Dodgers to use analytics to drive the team anymore.
I want the team to win a championship bluto. However that can happen.but when over reliance on data prevents that then well…..adjustments must be made
And just think, Hill was taken out in the 7th inning, after he was throwing a one hitter, and struck out his last hitter that he faced, on three pitches!
Hill didn’t get an ounce of the respect that Kershaw is getting in this game!
Hill is god, MJ.
That I agree with you on Bluto. Hill is an excellent pitcher
Score eerily the same as game 7 last year. In the most important start of the year Kershaw gives up 3 dingers. A theme has been repeated over and over the last few years. As you say Jeff, analytics are a tool. They chart tendencies. But in a game, all that stuff goes out the window. I would rather have a team that players make contact more than they strike out. You show me a chart of analytics that says Kike should hit 3rd. He has struggled the entire series and to my way of thinking is only in there because he homered last night. The score is now the same as last years game. Sox have hit 4 homers tonight. FAZ apologists and saber geeks cannot make excuses for this massive fail. Kershaw kept it close until the 7th, and this offense took the night off. Same thing happened last year. And for Boston it was the little guys who have done the job. Guys like Steve Pearce and Nunez, Devers, and Bradley Jr.
Michael,
I can understand your disappointment, but your logic is not making sense. Every decision that is made by every team is made based on probabilities. It is impossible to be correct every time. In a game, analytics or probabilities, do not go out the window. Emotion is not going to change this. Emotion has nothing to do with anything except like and dislike. What you might call old school is nothing but probabilities remembered in hindsight. Hindsight has little to do with the present and how things are.
This team needs a major overhaul if it wants to compete with the best. They are not the best or close to being the best. Those are the facts. They need players who are going to execute. In rebuilding, $$ play an important role. Money has nothing to do with probabilities. It buys talent if used properly. This is where the Dodgers have failed. They bought enough talent to compete but not win the prize. Boston, otoh, bought their talent and spent wisely. They did not rely on a farm system that is based on potential. Potential is not the same as proven talent and execution in the field. J.D. Martinez is an example of the talent Boston bought. FAZ doesn’t want to pay for ready made top talent so they rely on luck, bringing in farm boys or re-treads from IR, DL, and low valued players who sit on the bench. FAZ has done amazingly well with their approach but it doesn’t buy a WS! Emotion is not going to change this and neither will changing managers, although I’d love to get rid of Roberts.
That’s your opinion Jeff, and I am not disappointed. I expected the Sox to win. Analytics are the way this front office works. But do analytics tell you that Kike Hernandez is hitting 3rd when he is abysmal there? His best spots in the order, 1st, 5th and 8th, and in a deciding game, Roberts goes against all of that. I doubt very seriously any manager, even those who are deep into the saber game make in game decisions based on the analytics. There just is not time. He also sits on the bench the one guy who all year delivered with men on base. Matt Kemp. Kemp was far and away the best hitter they had with runners on base. He hit .353 with runners in scoring position, and 28 points higher against RHP than left, so why was he on the bench when a RHP started? Justin Turner by far the Dodgers best hitter, only hit .276 in that same spot. We believe in different philosophy’s Jeff. That’s cool, I think you have every right to think the way you do, and I have every right to like a different style of game. This team, and this style of baseball is extremely boring. When stats geeks think that striking out is no big deal and want these guys to go for launch angle instead of contact, something is wrong. I also do agree with you that the team needs a major over haul. I do not believe that Machado is going to be part of that. They have Seager, they do not need Machado. And his less than stellar series just makes me believe that more. My logic makes sense to me because I do not like the way analytics have taken over the game. Not the kind of baseball I played. FAZOPHILES and others like it, but not me, it does not win championships, getting the best players who have the best skills does. Boston just proved that. Having a manager that does not micro manage helps too.
Every team uses analytics when acquiring a player. This is just a given in today’s world. You not liking analytics makes no sense because you think that it is a rigid structure like using a programmed robot to make decisions. I would bet that your idea of how they use the numbers is very different from the reality. For me, it doesn’t matter what method they use to get results. If you think that the FO doesn’t want to win, that is a very different story. I am not of that opinion. We can only wait and see to what and to whom their committments will embrace. Winning the division and getting to the playoffs is a first step. They will have to make adjustments to get to the next level for sure. If they don’t, then we know their committment to winning is not there. Maybe they have a directive to minimize spending from the board and ownership. Some things we are not privy to and really don’t know how and what they are thinking. I know sometimes it appears they are not thinking at all.
i thought the dodgers was a home run team…i quess not..only warning track power,, seam like every hitter has a o and 2 count on them. kike should never be in the 3rd spot. kershaw ..should retire ,, once a bad back always a bad back.. i no i have one.. cant wait to see what coming in next yr
‘The Red Sox inked David Price to a seven-year, $217 million contract in December 2015. It is the richest deal ever for a pitcher. ‘
Such a terrible deal…..at least the FAZophants would claim. Any and every Red Sox fan would say ‘genius move.’
I say congrats to Boston. Thoroughly deserved it. This one made me sad but not mad. Last year made me mad. This year the better team won and in convincing fashion.
Again congrats Boston.
I totally agree Artie. The Red Sox were far and away the better team. The Dodgers, save Machado and Turner, are a collection of utility guys. They strike out way too much, fail to hit with runners in scoring position, and are one of the worst collection of clutch hitters in the majors. Their best hitter with runners in scoring position all year, Matt Kemp started on game in the Series. Granted, Kemp had a slump in the second half, but he also had drastically reduced playing time and although he hit right handers as well or better than lefty’s, our peerless leader Dr Dave, saw fit to keep his potent HR bat on the bench to pinch hit. How fitting is it that the last 4 Dodger hitters in this series were retired on strikeouts? 11 more K’s in this game. Machado went down swinging 3 times and hit under the Mendoza line in the series with 4 harmless singles and 3 ribbies. They should retain Freese, the guy is a hitter and steer clear of the expensive flop Machado. Seager will be back and I think that makes them better. Kershaw has a decision to make, and lets hope he makes one that is the best for him. I doubt any team is going to dump the 35 mil he is owed each year if he stays a Dodger. He is just not a 35 million dollar man anymore. Buehler will become the defacto ace. They have Ferguson and Urias who can step into the starting rotation and I think that makes at least Wood expendable because he would much rather start than relieve and he showed that with his lackluster post season. I am not mad either. I thought from the beginning that it would take perfect baseball to beat the Sox, and that’s what they played. Do not expect Roberts to be let go. In 5 days Machado, Madson, Grandal, Axford, Venditte, Utley, Hudson will all be exe Dodgers, at least for a while. Roberts will get a new contract because FAZ and the owners love him. I do not expect the Dodgers to win division title # 7 without a major retooling.
I am actually worried about CKs neck.
Just heard something hilarious…
CBS News Jim Hill said the Dodgers are favored to repeat as NL Champs and favored to win the World Series in 2019. Funny how they can predict that, when the team structure is not even decided yet. Hill also said Machado will be expecting to sign in approximately a $300M contract in the free agent market. I believe that to be true. I am sure some dumb team will probably pick him up for that, and regret it later.
Hill also said Dodgers are expected to sign Roberts to a long term extention… that I somewhat expected. They could not afford to get a quality Manager who they can also control.
Thought this was rediculous and a bit premature to report.