Reports are surfacing that the Dodgers are close to reaching an agreement with right handed starter Rich Hill. The Dodgers acquired Hill at the trade deadline this season from the Oakland A’s along with Josh Reddick for three top prospects, Grant Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Jharel Cotton. While Reddick was pretty bad, Hill was pretty good. In 6 starts for the Dodgers he was 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA and a 39/5 strikeout walk line. Hill allowed just seven earned runs in the regular season for the Dodgers and posted a 10.3 K/9 rate with a low 1.3 BB/9 rate as well.
#Dodgers closing in on multi-year deal with LHP Rich Hill. Not done yet
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) December 4, 2016
Overall Hill posted a 12-5 record with a 2.12 ERA in 20 starts. Honestly he was one of the better pitchers in all of baseball. It makes sense for the Dodgers to resign him; especially considering the free agent market is barren of any good starting pitchers.
Per reports, the deal is a multi-year contract in the neighborhood of 3-years and between 46-48 million dollars. Bill Plunkett is reporting that the deal is not finalized and may not be until Sunday morning or later. Hill was being vetted by other clubs like the Yankees, Rangers, and possibly the Astros, but all of those clubs have bowed out of the bidding.
The team friendly deal does come with some risk, as Hill is 37-years old and battled groin and blister problems all season long. Hill logged 110.1 innings pitched in 2016, and would need to provide the Dodgers more if he is going to be their number 2 starter behind ace Clayton Kershaw. However if Hill is healthy it would represent a good boost to what was a very thin rotation in 2016.
Of course signing Hill doesn’t mean that the Dodgers should give up on acquiring more starting pitching. The rest of the rotation could use help too. With Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda, and rookie phenom Julio Urias ready to join Hill in the rotation for next year.
That’s a mighty big “if.” Last season was only the second over 100 innings in his career. Should’ve opened up the wallet last year when they had the chance.
Makes sense???
Modern baseball…signing a 37 year old to a multi year contract. Oh well as far as 2017 I just hope he doesn’t suffer from those blister problems.
I’m on record as quite liking this, and the term and money makes it even better.
When Hill’s healthy, he’s a great #2. He pushes Urias / Maeda to 3/4. And this just gives the rotation incredible depth. If McCarthy comes back, then he’s the last piece. Otherwise, it’s Stewart or Stripling or even Anderson.
When Urias needs to be sidelined for his innings capacity or when Hill isn’t availble, the team has ample options.
Just what this team needs, and saves them from having to deal prospects for a similar #2/#1 pitcher.
“When Hill’s healthy, he’s a great #2.”
How often has that been in a 10+ year career? How often was it last year? How often is it likely to be for a 37 year old with his track record?
There were more reliable options available last year as free agents but they signed Kazmir instead. (And got stuck with Anderson at $17.2MM.)
“And this just gives the rotation incredible depth.”
It isn’t depth if he can’t pitch!
The upside is definitely worth the risk.
And there’s depth even if he can’t pitch, as the past year showed us.
Many of those who opine here do not understand risk, or at least apply it within their own narrowly defined context. DR wants the reincarnation of Koufax/Drysdale as the only way to field a successful team. He would prefer Sale or Greinke. No mention is made of the astronomical asking price, or the risk involved in spending (or squandering) so much assets to acquire such a player.
He is right when he describes the Dodgers predilection to seek out market inefficiencies. In this case, the Dodgers could potentially get the best pitcher on the market this year and a legitimate #2 at half the cost of an established ace. There is risk that he is injured or ineffective, but the cost benefit ratio outweighs that risk. Besides, if the team has a built in alternative if or when he does go down, then that potentiality is accounted for. However, if he pitches like he has the last two years, and it appears he’s a late bloomer, then it’s a boon for the team. If he doesn’t, the cost of doing business isn’t as dire as if it was a Greinke on the decline at 34 million a year for five more years. To me, that contract is extremely risky. Less cost and shorter term equals less risk.
Yeah, sure – I’m far too dumb to understand risk.
Did I mention that I represent the dreaded insurance industry for a living? And that they do risk professionally? And that my job is to help weigh risk?
Why must you assume that I if disagree with you that I am simply not as smart as you are?
The risk is that Hill will be who he is – he will pitch 90 innings if we are lucky for his $16MM and that others who pitch in his place will by definition be a 6th or 7th best starter. That means that the team will not compete with other teams who have actual legit #2 (or 1A) starter-types. The team could have signed one of these last year but chose not to. They could trade for one this year (and maybe they still will).
The past 2 seasons should by a salutary caution as to the wisdom of signing the old and infirm. Kazmir, McCarthy and Anderson largely were a waste of money and were unreliable.
Anderson is no longer a Dodger but your point is understood.
I was neither here nor there on Hill. I’ll wait to overreact after they are done making moves. I have a hard time believing they would re-sign a 37 yr old pitcher unless more was coming.
Ticket, parking, and concession prices are not going to be reduced regardless of what team payroll drops to so putting money in Hill’s pocket instead of Gugenheim’s pocket is fine with me.
I think Hill will help. No one knows how much or how often he will help, but he will help.
Hmm. Looks like we are split on this.
And why would that be a surprise?
If he’s healthy he will help. And that is the theme of our rotation. Maybe ’17 is the year all the walking wounded get healed. Maeda, Kazmir, McCarthy and Anderson all with 30 starts and 180 innings. Now that would be some depth.
The Dodgers could be poised to have a huge July trade where they might be able to compete with their youngster rotation and trade some or all of McCarthy, Kazmir, Ryu, and Hill.
Had they kept Chapman and been the team that traded him to Chicago instead of the Yankees trading him to Chicago, the Dodgers would have been the team that wound up with Torres and second base would have been fixed for years.
Too bad FAZ didn’t sign Desmond last year to play second instead of Kendrick and Utley or sign Hill like Oakland did for $6M.
And who pray tell would want all that crap from the Dodgers? Chapman was never officially a Dodger. So trading him was never an option.
MN, all that crap could lose its smell by July. On trading Chapman, he was traded, just not by the Dodgers because they backed out of the deal they had in place with the Reds. Too abstract for you?
I knew that BUM….and even though they had a trade in place, he was never a Dodger so trading him was never an option…..They backed out of the trade because of the domestic abuse issue….that we all know……..and I doubt the stink will be off any of those guys…..Hill might end up being the only one who produces anything, but the other 3, pure flotsam….
Bum
I thought the same thing about Chapman, and the Yankees got him, pretty cheap.
And they cashed in on him, and got some good prospects, but the eastern media, were all over the Dodgers, when the Dodgers were linked to getting Chapman.
But when the Yankees got Chapman, the media said it was just to good of a deal to turn down.
I never thought McCarthy was good when he was healthy. Kazmir was a panic move after blowing the deal with Iwakuma.
Hello Badger it’s Paul. And I am Ok with Hill if one is to compare with Mac, kazmir and Ballet bret. Anderson is gone, but I do concur with dodgerrick as far as Kazmir, Anderson and Mccarthy being sort of a waste of $$ and were unreliable as a result. the biggest FA contract this current FO gave out was that for McCarthy at 4 years and $ 48 million. That certain fills a description of waste.
UCLA basketball might be back. Great win against #1 ranked Kentucky in Kentucky yesterday.
I watched that game. Yeah, they look back.
Rams on national tv today. I’ll be watching that.
For what it’s worth fangraphs projects McCarthy and Kazmir at 90 innings for the year. Unless they come out of the gate like thoroughbreds they won’t be worth much in trade. I don’t expect much out of them. Hill projects at 23 starts. I’d be pleasantly surprised with that.
I watched it as well. Even though I can see a possibility for McCarthy, Kazmir, and Ryu being worth something in trade in July, I wouldn’t not put my money on it in Vegas.
Bum
I saw that about UCLA yesterday, and I was bummed that I missed that game.
I hear that getting Bummed is not all that bad 🙂
Calhoun would best makeup for any defensive weakness if his bat played half of its games in Colorado. Colorado needs a first baseman and relief pitchers. So, might $20M, Gonzales, Calhoun, Baez get LeMahieu?
Reports say Rockies after Trumbo to play 1st base.
Rockies are in win now mode that’s why they’re talking to Trumbo.
A team controlled 27 year old batting champion? That would be a trade talked about for years.
A high altitude batting championship.
Okay. I am totally against signing an injury prone 37 year old pitcher to a 3 year contract. I made that quite clear in previous posts on a different thread. I do not think resigning Hill should have been the priority. I think that should have been reserved for JT. But not my money and not my team to run. I am just the poor schmuck who has to root for whatever they assemble. When they came on board they talked about reducing payroll and getting younger. Their free agent signings have left a lot to be desired. In my opinion they have wasted and squandered a lot of money. But we all know that is beating a dead horse. I am at the point where I know complaining about their moves is a waste of time, because the owners have bought into their plan. I doubt Rich Hill gives them 3 full years of productivity, and that’s a shame because they are going to pay the guy whether he produces or not. Anderson and McCarthy have taught these guys nothing. Instead of being really bold and making a out of the box thinking trade that strengthens the team at multiple levels, they reduce the staff to the walking wounded again. Hell sign Withrow and Ross who both were on the DL last year and add more lame pitchers to the mix. I shall expect nothing but more flotsam and junk on the roster with these bozo’s.
At this point I agree with you Michael.
But, on SO many levels we are being asked to wait and see. Those of us who warned about McCarthy, and were called negative, now can say “we told you so” and are called despicable names. Kazmir, Anderson, Latos et al were major disappointments. They were certainly not surprises to some of us but that’s what can happen when you roll the dice. I cannot help but wonder where we would be had we just continued to stack the system and wait out the dead weight contracts. Instead, it appears we just continue to roll the dice. Maybe we are do for something other than snake eyes.
I agree with you totally Badger, which will probably draw the ire of you know who. But at this point who cares. I am sick and frippen tired of the plan. I want star power on my team and I want results, and division titles are not what I am talking about. At least the teams Ned put together were entertaining. This bunch o slugs is painful to watch. I have never seen such a collection of borderline AAA players on the blue since the late 60’s, and even then they at least had some good pitchers. Except for Kershaw, there is not one guy in this rotation I trust to win 15 games. And that includes Maeda. He faded worse than Seabisquit at 20 years old. Instead of loading up on dead old arms, I would rather see a rotation filled with the kids. Blow the whole damn thing up if you are going to keep signing flotsam and let the kids play. Worked for KC.
Now that is funny Michael,
Faded like Seabisquit at twenty years old.
I have a feeling that Maeda was hurt toward the end of the year, because the Dodgers media woman, kept on asking if Maeda was hurt.
And we know they always keep these injuries hush hush.
Ned’s teams were the worst. He took a top 5 farm system and destroyed it. He had Juan Rivera batting fifth, Chad Billingsley as a #2, Vincent’s Padilla as an opening day starter.
He blew money on Pierre, Andruw Jones, Schmidt.
One of the major reasons for the A-Gon trade was Colletti had the team in the dregs. James Loney!
Please don’t ever forget this as we come up with fiction to denigrate this first place team
They were far more fun to watch than this bunch and that’s a fact not fiction. And Ned was not responsible for the teams money troubles, that was McCourt. Ned had to be creative in order to keep that team competitive. Yeah, Schmidt and Jones were big mistakes. But Pierre actually brought something in return. Not so the other two. Vicente Padilla actually pitched pretty good for a little while and the only reason he was an opening day starter was injury’s in the rotation. You view history one way, I see it another. Opinions vary……but the fact is, the players Ned had on those teams were more fun to watch than FAZ’s funnys…..
Pierre was traded for trash! John Ely and some other joker.
What are you talking about?
Your opinion that “they were more fun to watch than this bunch” is just an opinion. Definititely not fact, and IMO pure fiction. Padilla was a joke. The injuries you cite were to Billingsley!
Watching Blake DeWitt and James Loney (not to mention Casey Blake) was about as much fun as reading Boxout’s political rants.
Why does signing Hill eliminate the possibility of signing JT? Again, what type of out-of-the-box thinking type of trade would you propose? Not to rekindle a past discussion again, but it would be nice if criticism was supported with some measure or rational coherence…and facts would be nice, too.
The devil will be in the details of that deal. Hopefully full of incentives and an option. I believe JT will stay home.
hello it’s Paul and I hope and believe JT will remain here as well. We need to get deal done with him NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good day Michael Norris and guess what–I fully concur with your post here. Anderson (We like calling him Ballet Bret) Kazmir and McCarthy were all known injury risks with an extensive history of injuries and I read where some say Dodgers were able to “afford” doing those risks. Baloney! As you probably know and have witnessed over these past couple of years, this FO lacks good judgement of pitching, hence the results with those signed are proof of that. Turner should VERY WELL HAVE BEEN PRIORITY# 1 followed by making sure we re-sign Jansen or obtain a legit closer because this team WILL NO see the PS in 2017 without one.
I totally agree. I think they have made bad choices that have been compounded by the injury’s those choices have suffered, they knew the history and signed them anyway siting depth and low risk. 48 million is a low risk salary? Moronic thinking.
From Cafardo:
Third baseman Justin Turner, arguably the best player left on the market, is likely to re-sign with the Dodgers, according to Cafardo. Aside from the Cardinals showing some degree of interest in Turner, there hasn’t been much chatter regarding the 32-year-old to this point. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts Turner will return to the Dodgers on a five-year, $85MM deal after a season in which he slashed .275/.339/.493, totaled 5.6 fWAR, and set career highs in plate appearances (622) and home runs (27).
From Connor Byrne:
Twins general manager Thad Levine revealed earlier this week that the team would have to be “really inspired” to trade second baseman Brian Dozier. It’s now possible the Dodgers will do enough to wow Minnesota into dealing Dozier, as Los Angeles is aggressively pursuing the slugger and has “piqued” the Twins’ interest, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The second base-needy Dodgers have been after Dozier throughout the offseason.
I will believe it when I see it and not before….and I would bet his power won’t play in Dodger stadium…….
Wondering
If there hasn’t been that much interest with Turner, maybe we will get him at a better deal.
Remember like I said, Turner does have a lot that is going against him.
And I remember you agreed.
That is why I never believed 100 million like Mark said.
We might get a pretty good deal on a middle of the order hitter, that plays really good defense too.
Turner is a cheap man’s, Josh Donaldson.
Hi MJ it’s Paul. From what others have reported it would ‘appear’ that Dodgers re-sign Turner so we shall see. The ONLY thing for Turner to improve on is as a RH batter, he must do better against LHP.. Heck for that matter we all know Dodgers need to be better than being LAST in MLB against them. Of the 189 HR’s the team hit in 2016, only 37 came off of LHP!
Does everyone feel signing Hill is more important then signing Kenley, or another closer?
I really don’t know, but Kenley would be a factor in many more games, then Hill.
And I know some will say they will still get a closer, so it won’t come to that, and I hope that happens.
They are not going to give a closer the kind of money Kenley and Chapman want. Long term deals with closers not named Mariano Rivera just not happening on this team. They will go for Melancon or closer by committee until they find one. Hill to me is a total waste of cash and resources.
Michael
I don’t care about what they think, I want to know how everyone else thinks.
But you did answer the question, with your assessment of Hill.
I am waiting to see what happens.
I want to make sure they get Turner or some closer, before I make an assessment.
And I want to see if they can move one of those two starting pitchers.
But I do have some doubts about Dozier.
I don’t like that most of his career, he hasn’t hit much for an average, but he would be better then what we probably had.
Isn’t the Twins stadium a big place?
I’m not really sure.
And I am always afraid when a player comes to the National, after playing only in the American League, because some players have trouble hitting against pitchers, they are unfamiliar with.
But Dozier is suppose to be good defensively.
No. It is pretty much the MLB average in size. Less capacity than Dodger Stadium. The difference is, in the early part of the season, balls do not fly well in LA, which is one reason the Dodgers have never had a HR champ in LA>
Michael
Thanks!
I wasn’t sure about that stadium.
I look at it a bit differently-
Left Field – 339 feet (103 m)
Left-Center – 377 feet (115 m)
Center Field left corner – 411 feet (125 m)
Center Field right corner – 403 feet (123 m)
Right-Center – 365 feet (111 m)
Right Field – 328 feet (100 m)
It’s a smaller park, but a larger field. And it’s outdoors in Minnesota. Balls don’t fly well there in April, but come July and August I bet they do.
Not everybody is built for LA. Dozier is from southern Mississippi. You might want to consider that.
Michael all true about balls not flying well in LA when it’s cold and maybe damp at night. But it still better than when DS had those original dimensions prior to the 1969 season. For example in the early years the fences were about 2 FT. taller and CF was 410 Ft. away from home plate. Dodgers had Adrian Beltre lead the league in HR’s in 2004 with 48, the most by any RH batter in franchise history.
I get what you are saying…….but, name one power hitter outside of Sheffield and Green who ever approached their top numbers as a Dodger. You will not find any. Manny Ramirez hit 17 homers as a Dodger in less then 2 months on the team. Dozier hit 42 last year. He does not come close to that in LA> Based on history.
Just because he was signed first it doesn’t make him a bigger priority. I’m sure they have budgeted amounts in place. Hill may have been an easier deal to get done considering the number of teams involved or not involved and the lack of QO.
Yes. Starting Pitching in this market, definitely.
As many teams have proven, you can build a bullpen from unknowns or reappropriated parts. Hopefully the team won’t have to, but I think hill was a much higher priority.
Thiis is the first of our signing our 3 free agents. I think Turner and Jansen will stay and make enough $. Hill’s signing makes sense, since we don’t have, yet, reliable young starters. What it might do, too, is open up a trade of some our young pitchers for a 2B or LF. I don’t think the broken down ones have much trade value, but packaging them with a young one or 2, might make sense for Pittsburg or Milwaukee or Minnesota. Will be an interesting next week.
Badger
Thanks for your prospective too.
And I guess Reddick would make your point, that some players are not made to play in LA, or Reddick just sucks every where he plays.
I just don’t like these hitters, that don’t hit much for an average, especially with our line up.
I do agree with Scott about the signings, and raises, given to Hatcher and Scotty!
Are these quaranteed contracts?
yes…all MLB contracts are guaranteed…
Michael
Thanks again!
I wasn’t sure because I have heard people say different things, about these contracts.
It is ridiculous to continually keep Hatcher, let along, giving this guy a raise.
He is a walking catastrophy, every time he comes into a game.
And he doesn’t ever pitch for the whole season, because he is so bad, or is injured.
Contracts via the arbitration process arent guaranteed until sometime in spring closer to opening day. Since they reached a deal with SVS, Hatcher, and Culberson those deals are guaranteed.
Thanks Hawkeye.
All good points today. Plusses and minuses on keeping Hill for 3 years (even if there’s no team option on 1-2 of those years; thanks Bluto!!)
To me resigning JT is a no brainer. He’s 32 or 33, but its not like he started for the last 10 years. Yes he had surgery a year ago, and we saw that from May onwards, he got healthier and healthier and was our most feared bat at the end. We need him. $15 mil a year is well worth it. If in year 4 or 5 he has to platoon a bit, so be it. I also want Kenley back, but that may take longer for the market to shake out
Then we’ll see the fun wheeling and dealing start.
You just never know how about contract year numbers. I don’t trust them. I think Turner might be good for a couple more years, but, I won’t be surprised if, like many players post steroids, he fades quickly.
My gut tells me we will be outbid by somebody on Jansen, but with FAZ it’s difficult to know what they are thinking.
“What” or “If”…
Wondering
How are you doing today?
It is a nice 73 right here now.
The MLB Channel is going to be on at 3 our time, until late to night, talking about all the different deals in the air, at the winter meetings.
I am kind curious in seeing, exactly what Hill was really signed for.
Bobby
Turner’s yearly salary, is really not that much, especially when Kazmir is making 16 million a year.
Exactly. IF, for example, he signs a 5 year 85 mil deal, which is 17mil a year, he’ll likely outperform his 17mil a year for the firs 3 years, and maybe be at its worth in year 4 and under in year 5. Nowadays, that’s worth it
The thing about Kenley, is that he doesn’t have a lot of miles on his arm, because he use to be a catcher.
And Kenley does throw the best cutter, since Mariano retired, and Mariano, did have a long successful career.
And Kenley is the youngest of this group of closers.
On side note, since football was brought up earlier, why the F did the Rams extend Jeff Fisher?? Mediocrity will continue for them
I was just coming in to comment on that very thing Bobby.
The Rams lead the NFL – in punts.
This team sucks, has for a long time, and Goff and Gurley won’t change a thing because the organization hasn’t done well addressing the offensive line.
Dodgers, Lakers, Rams. I said it before and I’ll say it again, Los Angeles is going to have to wait a few years.
Lakers foundation is now in place. Some great super young talent, and a young coach. Next year or 2 a ton of cap room.
Dodgers are way ahead of the Lakers; good young mgr, good young players, and we’re already a final 4 team. it’s frustrating as we are THIS CLOSE!! Rams just suck. Kings are good though.
By way ahead do you mean a better record, or closer to a championship?
are u and ur wife still coming to socal? If you get to normal part of LA (pasadena, etc) we can meet up for Indian food! i remember we discussed that a couple years ago
We’re going to Desert Hot Springs for some time just soaking in the mineral pools. Would love to do the Indian food with you, but not this trip. This is trip for some healing.
Badger
Are you hurting physically right now?
MJ, I’m suffering what all men my age and with my background suffer. I won’t go into detail here but, yeah, my wife and I need to get out of town for a while. It’s been a very stressful 4 years for us.
And thank you for asking. Very thoughtful of you. I appreciate that.
Hope you start feeling better soon Badger. I thought there was a pill for that though.
MJ—Last year the Dodgers were two wins from getting into the WS and had Kershaw and Hill starting those two games. Hard to ask for more than that. I have already offered my opinion on Hill. I would rather have him and all the prospects than Sale and fewer of the prospects.
The Dodgers can use Turner in the clubhouse. But, with all the lefty hitters on the organization, he is only a good fit if the Dodgers can get a solid righty bat into the lineup with him and my position on that is that I want a young righty bat.
The Lakers are at least interesting to watch this year. Too bad Russell is hurt because Calderon is awful. As is Deng.
Badger
I’m sorry to hear that, and I hope you and your wife, have a nice escape on your trip.
We only have less then a month, and we will be in a new year, so have a great time!
MJ, did you see the comments late yesterday? There were a lot of punches thrown but I don’t think he laid a glove on the Badger…
Wondering
Yes I did.
But Badger had said he wasn’t doing very well yesterday, and I didn’t know if he meant mentally or physically.
Timmons was just off his meds, or drinking again. He does that periodically, and has for years. What he posted were not his words. I found the entire thing on Reddit. I don’t take that nonsense seriously. As some have suggested, consider the source.
I’ll tell you all this much, my wife needs some time in the hot springs. I’m old and tired, and wearing out, but I’m ok. Thank for your concern.
Wondering
I was suprised that you didn’t tell Mark, that less can be more.
FAZ at the baseball meetings
I’m watching the Arizona/Washington game and the Redskins quarterback is having a difficult time figuring out the defense. It made me wonder – are his parents Cousins?
If UCLA is on there way to another good basket ball program, and this year’s team turns out to be good.
I rather watch college basket ball, then pro basket ball.
Very punny Taxidea
I have never been on any meds so I guess that makes me off of them… Just another lie! Of course those weren’t my words – I wouldn’t waste the time.
Next…
I don’t know why anyone would think I would be angry just because they think the Rich Hill signing is a bad deal. It might be… or not. I’m not excited by it, but it could end up OK, Good or Bad! I guess we will find out. I can’t praise it or criticize it and opinions are everywhere.
The thing that I find difficult to understand is when people say the Dodgers have no starting pitching depth. That’s a silly thing to say, because their depth is astounding, which is precisely why they might get away with this kind of deal. Hill is a different pitcher than he was 10 years ago… or three years ago for that matter. I don’t think he will pitch 200 innings, but he might get 150-160 and with our depth, that’s OK.
I did not think they would go after Hill so I was wrong about that. Of course, I never admit I am wrong (another lie – detect a trend?). If Hill does well, it might soften the loss of Cotton, Holmes and Montas who all could be solid… or not! I thought Rubby De La Rosa would be great and that Allen Webster would be a solid #4 or #5. Wrong again.
If the Dodgers sign JT and Jansen, they have to shed some salary. I still think they need a righty masher like Braun. Dozier scares me. He’s really a one year wonder – last year was his career year but he has gotten better every year for the past 5. I don’t like signing guys who come off a career year… like Turner either. 5 year and $75 million might be palatable for Turner..
Puig makes about $8.5 million a year for the next two years. Ethier makes $18 million next year. McCarthy makes $11.5 million the next two years. Kazmir makes has his deal spread out over 5 more years so I think he stays.
I might try and trade Kenta Maeda to Pittsburgh for Josh Harrison, who mashes lefties.. Pittsburg could use another low-cost starter. Then I might trade Puig, McCarthy, Verdugo and/or Stewart to Milwaukee for Braun. The team still would likely have to move Ethier by paying $10 mil of his salary. If Andre were told he would not start, I think he would accept a trade in his contract year.
We would be better against LH pitching too.
Rotation:
1. Kershaw
2. Hill
3. Urias
4. Kazmir
5. De Leon
Buehler, Stripling, Wood, De Jong
I am with you on Walker Buehler. I think he’s gona rise rapidly, and next year become a top overall prospect in the minors. In college he reminded me of Zach Greinke.
So let’s see!
I too thought Rubby would be a star. A lot of us were wrong on him. I also agree there is a lot of pitching depth but no true #2 starter. Urias will be eventually.
I agree Andre will want to go elsewhere to start going into a contract year but I’m not sure he would accept Milwaukee. I tend to think not.
Is it really a career year for JT when he’s mashed for the last 3?
As for last night, that post was nonsense and most of us wish you two would just post without baiting each other. No one wanted to read that for both length and content.
Second the motion!
As far as Ethier goes, with all those we already have in the OF, I would also believe he would approve of a trade to some team if it gave him the chance to start instead of platooning. I am thinking he may not yet consider himself just a bench player as of this time.
Motion carried.
Hawkeye
You know I agree about Turner.
And he isn’t the type of player, that will lose his motivation, once he gets paid.
And he has been the Dodgers most important hitter, in the last couple of years.
And he does hit in the post season, and he can help our youngsters, to be able to do the same thing.
I predict 4/72 with an option for 5th yr that includes a $3m buyout.
Hawkeye
That is a good guess.
Of course we rather it be only a three year contact, but there was has to be give and take.
The Dodgers have had a middle of the order hitter, for quite cheap the last couple of years.
And we don’t want to get rid of a player, that hits in the post season, when that has been a problem too.
In these cases ya brought up, yes we would be better against LHP and NEED TO BE BETTER than we were in 2016.
Mark
Dozier concerns me too.
He has never hit at a decent average until this year.
And a power guy that can’t hit consistently, is not what this line up needs.
But he does play good defense, and he might be better then we had, but when players come to a new league, they often struggle.
And BJ Upton had this same power, with a low average, and he couldn’t hit when he came to the Braves.
And like both you and Badger said, Dozier being from a small town might not do well, in LA.
How does one define “death”? Total number of different starters over the course of a year? I believe we had 15 different starters last year. (I had the over on 12, so, got that right) If that is how you define depth, then yeah, I guess we were deep. I have a different definition of depth. I don’t call 15 different starters depth, I call it “holy crap!” The Dodgers starters were 29th in innings pitched last year. That sucks. By any definition, that sucks. We need to be better than that.
Just noticed my typo. Oops. I believe there is no such thing as death, but, that’s a discussion for another day.
We gotta put up with this crap forever?
Zach Lee got DFA’d by Seattle. Matt Holliday gets $13m to DH for the Skankees.
I was right about him… 😉
Sadly! 🙁
Heading into the winter meetings the biggest thing this team needs to address is to hire some real trainers and medical staff. Holy Crap how can we spend mega millions on players who keep breaking mid season. Where is the off season work out protocol?
I bitched about this the last two off seasons. There are a hundred universities with world class kinesiology and nutrition programs. Spend 1mm on that and reap 100mm on the other end.
Um, the Dodgers have an entire department dedicated to this.
Read Passan’s book “The Arm”
I realize that complaining about who they sign or trade for is a waste of energy. So I am not going to say anything about the deals that they make until I see what they look like in spring. Everything between now and then will only give us an idea of who they have to work with.
This is an interesting report from Ken Rosenthal:
Rival clubs believe #Marlins willing to offer Jansen five years, $80M and lose No. 14 pick in draft. Marlins say they’re still discussing.
Interesting on a few levels:
1. What the hell are the Marlins doing?
2. Melancon is close to a deal as well, which would leave the Dodgers either on Chapman or in search of another closer path.
3. The 14th pick would be great.
The Dodgers wouldn’t get the 14th pick. Marlins would forfeit theirs and the Dodgers would get an additional pick at the end of Rd 1.
I thought that change goes into effect next year. Darn
It does but you never actually got the other teams draft pick directly.
Bluto
I don’t think Kenley will go to the Marlins.
He felt that Mattingly didn’t have any faith in him, in I believe 2013, or around that time.
See, the world wants to be with Donnie.
Roger
Most of the players on the team now, really like Roberts better.
Mattingly didn’t do anything to confront certain players when they were not being team players.
Mattingly is not good with confronting anyone.
And that is why he isn’t that great of a manager.
He expected the players to police everyone.
Mattingly could have handled Kemp much better too.
He should have been more understanding with Kemp, instead of just benching him for that week or two.
It is hard for a player to accept they are not the same, after being injured like that.
Mattingly isn’t as good with people as Roberts is.
Mattingly even today, is still living off what he was as a player.
There are a lot of players doing that.
I know it is bad enough that they are born with that great talent, and they are lucky enough to play baseball for a living.
But a lot of former baseball stars, are still living off what they were is a player.
So there lot in life, continues throughout there life.
Sign Zack Lee to be the new Dodger batting practice pitcher. He will make hitters feel like they are champions with the bat.
I thought they did Hawk – unless the pick was in the top half of the first round. Those picks were protected. And I too thought the draft changes will be implemented after the ’17 season.
I agree with what you said Tim regarding the training staff. Yes, of course the organization has qualified teams of medical experts, but they haven’t been able to keep the guys FAZ chooses to pick up off the DL. The Dodgers have hired all these experts and told them “help us out here”, and even the best can’t fix players with long histories of injuries.
First round picks. Another crap shoot:
http://www.espn.com/mlb/history/draft/_/team/lad
Badger
Exactly, except for Puig, who doesn’t do what he is suppose to do, to prevent his hammy injuries.
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/805749410936291328
Wondering
Rosenthal is saying to take Turner’s place, but they may be looking at Solarte to play second not third.
He seems like a decent player, that has a little pop for a small guy.
And he is always getting big hits against us.
I guess they could do worse.
I need to look at his numbers though.
Why isn’t Hill signed yet?
I saw the Solarte thing this morning. He’s ‘a’ight. But he’s going to be 30 and is a negative dWAR player. Why not keep whatever prospects he would cost and throw Calhoun out there? Unless we could unload Kazmir or McCarthy for him. I might do that. This is another meh rumor for me.
Just saw Beimel is looking for work. What was that crazy dude’s name that was a Beimel fan. West Virginia something.
Badger
I am wondering about Hill too.
Troy.
Whatever happened to that guy. I met him at ST one year. Nice guy that day. Wound a little tight.
Badger
Solarte would be ok for second, but not third.
He is not even close to a middle of the order hitter.
He hit 300 plus in three months out of the year, and hit 265 for two months out of the year, and he only had one bad month, where he hit in the low 200s.
He hit pretty consistently all year long, and a lot of players, don’t do that.
Although he hits both lefties and righties decent, he hits righties better, and most of his power, is against righties too.
I don’t know if he can play second, but he isn’t even close to Turner, if they are thinking about Solarte at third.
Solarte 15 HRs, 70 plus RBIs, and hit just under 290, and his OPS is at about 800 last year.
That isnt bad numbers at all, if he plays second.
And they have traded with the Padres before, so it might not matter, that they are in the same division as us.
As Michael always says, it depends on who the Padres want in exchange.
Solarte has one huge advantage in FAZ’s book, he is (relatively) cheap.
He’s been around long enough that I would rely more on his career numbers. .271/.332/.419. Again, not bad, 7.1 oWAR in 3 years, but also a career -0.8 dWAR. We could do worse. What would he cost?
Giants about to lock up Melancon…
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/805814480739401729
He might do very well on that club.
FAZ still playing video games…
I don’t think Kenley will go to the Marlins, because he has had the taste of the post season to much.
I don’t see the Marlins doing anything for a long time.
They lost there biggest piece, that would have gotten them, some pretty good prospects.
And Stanton’s contract, will start getting higher and higher, as time goes on.
And Stanton has lost his value quite a bit, because he hasn’t been able to stay on the field, in the last couple of years.
And there owner changes his mind to much.
If Kenley went there without a opt out, he wouldn’t be playing in the post season, for a very long time.
If it were me (and it isn’t of course), then I would explore a bigger trade involving Carter Capps who coming off TJ surgery.
We need an 8th inning guy as well as a closer, a role he was expected to challenge for with the Marlins last Spring until he was ruled out with his TJ surgery.
He pitched to a 1.16 ERA in 2015 & had surgery in March 2016, meaning he should be good to go for ST 2017.
He gets it up there towards 100mph
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/carter-capps-11480/
If we don’t sign one of the big 3 closers, he could possibly fill that role.
And of course he’s cheap….
Good thought. Nobody’s a closer until the manager puts them in that position.
Well if we don’t sign Kenley/Chapman(which we probably won’t) I would look internally first, maybe closer by comittee? Ravin/Dayton would bee my first two choices.
Watford
I believe we got one of the Marlin’s pitchers last year, so who knows.
There is also the Royals former closer Holland out there too.
He did have that showcase, and the only GM at his showcase, was the Giant’s GM.
I didn’t think the Giants would go big with a closer like some thought, because the Giants are always very conservative with there moves.
They have picked up way to many players for almost nothing, that always seem to be that player, that the Giants needed to make there runs.
Watford
Your going to have to retire in the US, to keep up with the Dodgers, or just get a summer home, to go to in the US, after you retire.
The Cubs are losing Arrieta and Lackey after next year, and they have not developed many pitchers in there system.
That is where we have a clear advantage, if we keep our young pitchers healthy.
We have enough young pitchers, to use, to get what we need.
And everyone always needs pitchers.
2018. A lot will be changing that year.
Capps. Interesting idea. As is Holland. And is closer by committee, committing to the last 1/3 of the game, 9 outs, from several dufferent arms. If we don’t get more than the almost dead last in all of baseball IP from our starters then using the bullpen ala a square dance routine for 3-4 innings may be the way to go – allemande left with the ol right hand, bow to your partner right and left grand.
I think I’m dating myself there. 6th grade square dance at Canoga Park Elementary School.
May lose Arrieta and Lackey. They have a ton of money and good cost control.
I don’t want to add a player to the Dodger 40 that is over 25 and I want to trade players 32 and older to other teams. That would be my guidelines to FAZ.
It’s official, 3 years $48MM A sad day for the Dodgers.
https://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/status/805835090316161024
That’s great. Big domino to fall.
Despite making only twenty starts in 2916 he was still 18th in WAR. Tied with Arrieta.
Yeah but look who it fell on!
The white man!
And you don’t think that maybe he did everything possible to stay healthy and pitch well last year cause……IDK, his last chance to make big money. The guy was out of baseball just a couple of years ago. Can you say…..suckers?
This will be 3 for 3 in free agent, multiple year signings by FAZ. One more and they might as well start packing.
Giants get Melancon, $62MM. Seriously now, would you rather give Melancon $62MM or Hill $48MM? Tough call….
I definitely don’t know if I’d go over 16mm for any closer. Amazing that Melancon got that.
Yikes
Wondering
My question is still who is really worth more to the Dodgers, Kenley or Hill?
Kenley will have his touch on so many more games then Hill.
And Kenley is younger and he throws the one pitch, that the best closer in baseball threw.
And the best closer in baseball, had a very successful and long career, throwing that same pitch.
What is it with the number 48 million, with this front office?
MJ,
Starters are worth a lot more than relievers. They impact many more innings.
Check out how Britton ended up doing in MVP and Cy Young voting.
Bluto
I know what happened with Britton, and that was questioned by a lot of people.
I am not sure between Kenley and Hill.
Maybe we will have to wait until we can see how many innings that Hill pitches.
But you sure made a good point, with the innings.
What happened with Britton was, in my opinion, people coming to the conclusion that saves are almost as irrelevant as wins and batting average when it comes to measurable stats.
That what matters for pitchers and players is impact on the game. In Britton’s case and the case of evaluating pitchers, you make more of an impact by performing at a high level in a higher % of the time played.
Bluto
We have to get someone that hit lefties well.
And not just a power bat, we need an all around good hitter.
The Giants have Moore and Bumgarner, who are lefties.
And we know that Bochy won’t hesitate to bring in a leftie, any chance he can, as well as every other manager in baseball, that we face.
And our guys have still not figured out how to adjust there timing mechanism against
Cueto.
Well, that doesn’t help your argument for Turner, unless you believe in hoping he can figure out a way to reverse his trend.
Does help the Dozier argument.
Giants aren’t nearly as big a potential problem as the Cubs.
Bluto
And I think the Red Sox starting pitcher, won the Cy Young based on his wins, which we know are more determined by a team, not a pitcher alone.
I do think a batting average tells a lot, because the tells you, that a hitter, is making a difference more often.
But really it is good to have a hitter that has a good batting average, and has power numbers, and combines that with good plate disapline.
Not to rehash anything but when you wrote:
“a hitter that has a good batting average, and has power numbers, and combines that with good plate disapline. ”
THAT IS OPS
I will say this, at least Hill has an upside that is worth his risk, unlike, McCarthy and Kazmir, and Anderson.
And with what we know right now, Hill was the obvious pitcher to sign last year, instead Kazmir.
But after giving this big contract to Hill, the front office has to get rid of one or both, of those pitchers, that are not worth what they were given.
But I won’t make my final decision about Hill, until I find out what happens with Turner and Kenley, or another closer.
Anderson was worth the risk the 1st year and actually pitched well. It certainly wasn’t worth the risk to lay $16m on the table and think he wouldn’t take it.
Hawkeye
Anderson wasn’t even necessary, because they could have just kept Haren.
I felt they were extremely extremely lucky, that Anderson made it through that one season.
True, but Haren was giving up HR’s like nobody’s business for most of the prior season. Hard could definitely hit and field better than Anderson. Anderson ran out of gas at the end of 2015 but overall pitched better than Haren the prior.
True, but Haren was giving up HR’s like nobody’s business for most of the prior season. He could definitely hit and field better than Anderson. Anderson ran out of gas at the end of 2015 but overall pitched better than Haren did the prior season At the time I was happy to see him go.
Bluto
We play the Giants a lot more then the Cubs.
And we have to beat the Giants to make it to the post season, to play the Cubs.
I am talking about another bat, besides Turner.
I wouldn’t count Turner out, from finding out, why he has had trouble hitting lefties..
It might be just an adjustment in his batting stance.
Nomar felt it was only an small adjustment, that Turner needs to make, to hit lefties better.
Turner spends his off season, trying to be a better hitter every year.
He has a hitting guru that has helped him, be the hitter, he is.
Bluto
No problem!
Isn’t it OBA combined with slugging?
I just think there is just something missing, in the way they factor offensive production.
They need to penalize strike outs more, because they are not the same as productive outs.
And they shouldn’t compare hits to walks either, because they are not the same as a hit.
Walks help hitters, who strike out a lot, look better offensively, then they really are to me.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted earlier today that the Dodgers have made a recent inquiry on McCutchen as well.
Wondering
I have seen that about McClutchen too.
I rather have Solarte I think at second, instead of Josh Harrison.
Because Solarte has more power, and he does hit for an average.
But with the Giants pitching staff, we have to get a player, that hits lefties well, that can also hit with good power.
MJ:
Not sure about this year but Solarte actually hit better vs RHP than LHP in 2015.
Harrison is also a good hitter and fielder.
Besides I don’t think either team wants to trade with the other since they are in the same division unless its a blockbuster like the Kemp deal.
I’m still holding out hope about a Braun and Villar deal with us.
Hey old men can have dreams too!!!
The problem is old men have nothing but dreams.
Wondering
Darn you, you give me no hope!
Yea but the memories are FANTASTIC.
Richie
Nothing wrong with dreaming, it still could come to fruition.
We do need a leftie killer badly.
I just thought Solarate would be ok at second.
I think I did mention he hit better against righties, and hit most of his HRs, against righties too.
It looks like we’ll have much to complain about next year…
Wondering
I think that is going to happen, until they bring a World Series to LA.
Just like what I said months ago. FAZ has no clue. When all other ‘winning’ FO’s were out signing pitchers last year…..Cubs (Lackey), Cards (Leake), Giants (Cueto & Samardzija), Red Sox (Price) and of course there are others. And everyone was commenting on the cost of pitching, that was because ALL of those FO’s were looking at a 2 year plan. Out of desperation, FAZ signed Kazmir after everyone else was signed. Now, because Hill is regarded as the best starting pitching prospect (of which he is ‘so good’ that he has pitched for 8 different organizations) available that FAZ has to overpay for a 37 y/o pitcher.
This guy has 38 career wins with a total of………..610 innings pitched in his 12 year career. For those without calculators that is an average of 50 innings per year. This is comical.
Then when on considers that the A’s signed this guy last off season for $6M and than parlayed that into 3 young prospects……well this makes this signing that much more laughable.
For those that don’t understand what I’m saying…..Hill would have signed a 3 year deal a year ago for oh, a total of $20M or so. That would have been a nice deal for him considering his career and the Dodgers would still have Montas, Holmes and Cotton.
Mike Leake?
Smardzija?
Come on.
If you think the Price or Cueto deals were better than Hill, then I have a wall on the Southern border I’d like to pitch you on.
You can make a better bed for an argument that that pile of messy sheets.
Mike Leake and Samardzija will win more games over the next 3 years than Hill will. How much do you want to bet? $100, $1,000 or $10,000. I’ll bet my Porsche if you have a car that is equivalent. That is what is a no brainer.
The Cards signed Leake cause he is an innings eater and they had lost Lance Lynn for the year last season. His innings over the last last 7 years beginning in 2011 167, 179, 192, 214, 192, 192, 176……. THAT IS WHY THEY SIGNED HIM. He’s not a dominating pitcher but he is as good as any other teams #4 or 5’s which is all they need. So yes, IMO his $16M per year contract is a MUCH better deal than Hill’s $16M per year deal AND Leake was only 28. He still potentially has an upside. Do you want to tell me that Hill has an upside? If so, I’ve got some real estate that I’ve been looking to move. Not going to go through Samardzija history but it’s the same logic and Cueto’s signing was a brilliant move by the Giants cause IF he pitches lights out this year, he will opt out.
Yup.
We can agree to disagree, especially on the estimation that Leake being as good as a #4 is the same upside as Hill’s upside.
I’m not a car guy, but I’ll take Hill over those two easy peasy.
Fair enough.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/dodgers-re-sign-rich-hill.html?fv-home=true&post-id=79264
Only time will tell if this is a good deal or not, but one thing for sure is that I really enjoy watching Rich Hill work, and if I’m gonna see him & King Kershaw pitch twice every 5nights then I’m happy.
Also, if we are to finally win a WS again, then we will need at least 3 elite pitchers for those playoff games – this gives us 2.
If Urias steps up, or McCarthy or Kazmir or even Ryu then we may have a shot.
We have a very solid rotation and enough starters to manage Hill as required.
I like it.
If we are in a strong position at the Trade Deadline, then we can always trade for a top tier Starter to complete the job.
Good luck with watching Hill pitch every 5 days. That is the issue, actually.
The Dodgers traded for Hill at the deadline. In 2 months he made 6 starts.
Before the Dodgers got him he had been out for weeks with the same blister ailment but had also missed a month with a groin strain.
If he pitches more than the 111 innings that he pitched last year I will be pleasantly surprised.
The Dodgers are currently trying to move both Kazmir and McCarthy to make room on the 40 man and to shed payroll to add other players. Ryu is probably done for his career.
The argument that Bluto makes about this being a good signing seems to be that Hill for 50 or 100 innings has more value than an “innings eater” who will show up and pitch every 5 days but not be much more than replacement value. This all depends on how important that you think that it is to show up and pitch.
Hill won’t have any value when he doesn’t pitch. The Dodgers are betting on the come that Hill will pitch more than he has in the past. That calculation hasn’t worked out so well with McCarthy, Anderson or Kazmir.
And he didn’t cost anything but $$$!!!
Watford
Like I said above, at least Hill has a big upside, compared to McCarthy and Kazmir.
He is more of a competitor, then those two pitchers too.
But they better sign Turner, and get us a closer too.
I think they will trade for that leftie killer bat we need.
Hill’s downside is one heck of a lot higher than his upside. And paying $48MM for him is as crazy as paying it for Kazmir. Remember some of Ned’s deals where he was bidding against himself? He must have advised FAZ on this, or maybe FAZ is as much a loser as he is.
Wondering
I am not crazy about the deal.
They better get rid of those other pitchers.
And I know what your talking about, with bidding against oneself.
What I mean about upside, is that when Hill pitches, he pitches much better then McCarthy, and Kazmir do.
But I think the Nationals did find Hill’s weakness in the post season.
‘For Hill, the $48 million contract represents an enormous windfall; in 12 seasons, he never made more than the $6 million he earned in 2016.’
‘Hill has a 38-28 career record with a 4.10 ERA in 221 games in 12 seasons with the Chicago Cubs (2005-08), Baltimore Orioles (2009), Red Sox (2010-12, ‘15), Cleveland Indians (2012), Los Angeles Angels (2014), New York Yankees (2014), A’s and Dodgers.’
Even the ‘bad’ Mike Leake has a career ERA of 3.99…..just sayin.
If I had a black suit, I’d wear it. Dodger fans should prepare to suffer for several years now. Too many bad decisions to overcome. I predict Mr. FAZ is going to get booted out on his dead end within two years.
I just don’t see the read on all the excitement regarding Hill. IF. Interesting word to rely on here. Heck we can say that about every player in both leagues. Hill has a long resume in which to review and evaluate. The guys who crunch numbers for every site that does so for MLB must have read that resume because they predict he will do what? ……… the same thing he’s done every year for 10 years, only maybe for a couple more innings. I’m hearing the same arguments I heard for McCarthy and Anderson, and we know how that worked out. And by the way, to say Anderson had one good year is something of a stretch. Yep, he pitched 180 innings. Surprised me with that, but look at his splits. He started like crap and finished like crap on a stick, including 3 innings of 18.00 ERA in the playoffs. The QO offered him blew up like skunk squirt right in Friedman’s grill. I got a feeling the FAZ outbid themselves on Hill.
I’m wondering any of the other clubs made offers anywhere near $48MM…. I’m thinking FAZ threw a number at him and he was smart enough to say “yes”.
My guess as well. Yeah, there was interest from other clubs. That means nothing. What were they willing to offer? The agent prolly said “beat 3/48” and there were no return calls.
Badger
Why is it always 48 million dollars?
This isn’t funny.
Wondering
I had to enlarge that thing to see it.
I wish I hadn’t done that, because that is just plain gross.
Is this one better?
Wondering
Were you thinking about Brandon League?
No. The cartoon is funny because it is pathetically true.
I mean about Ned making bids against himself.
I have to imagine guaranteeing a 3rd year was the difference from other suitors.
Anderson was signed to be a #5 not the #3. When they signed those two I said I thought giving McCarthy 4 years was dumb, but taking a flyer on Anderson for 1 year looked good.
After watching Anderson field his position, swing a bat, and try to bunt for a season you could see why the guy was an injury waiting to happen. I said that he would accept the QO and the Dodgers were dumb to give it.
Hawkeye
Remember after the front office signed Anderson, they tried to sell us by saying, he only had a couple of freak accidents that caused him to go out.
And it didn’t take long to see that these were not freak accidents.
It was just Anderson’s lack of athleticism.
Agree 100% and yes I do remember that.
If they can give Hill this, they can sign Turner.
I don’t think Turner is going to be as much as some think either.
https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/805843409600712704
Howell can still pitch.
You were right about Anderson Hawkeye. I felt the same way. I called him the Stay Puft Marshmallow man. He always looked red faced and tired out there.
Wonder that Bugs Bunny video was freakin hilarious. I copied it and sent it out to several old friends. Thanks.
FAZ should have offered Hill a contract like Maeda’s, just shorter.
Guggenheim can plead debt reduction to me when they quit wasting huge amounts of money on guys like Hill, McCarthey, Kazmir, a bunch of Cubans, etc.
Wondering
Exactly even if the Cuban signings are not on the payroll, it is still spending money.
I hope they don’t get McCutchen because he didn’t hit much above 200 against lefties last year.
And his power numbers are much better against righties too.
Agree. Feels like a ploy by Pittsburgh to get more out of Washington.
It could backfire by getting more out of FAZ.
?
Joke
It’s true Epstein had a decent squad when took over the Red Sox before the 2003 season at age 28, the youngest general manager in baseball. He was candid with Boston fans, saying the only proven strategy for longtime success was the “tear it down to the studs and the rebuild,” the same idea he he took to Chicago. Sure enough, in Boston Epstein traded away beloved SS Nomar Garciaparra, but he also made key acquisitions such as Kevin Millar, Curt Schilling and an overweight castoff named David Ortiz. Before the 2004 season, Epstein signed Terry Francona as manager, and the Red Sox won their first World Series in 86 years. They repeated in 2007. Two years later Epstein told the Cubs faithful that under his plan they would be bad before they would be good, but once they were good, they would stay that way. That is what I consider the Epstein model. When Friedman got here, it’s my opinion, and only an opinion, he should have done a similar Boston move by trading proven older players for prospects and, the big move, insisted that Maddon come in at the same time. Yeah yeah, 20/10 hindsight, but many of us were saying it AT THE TIME.
Then we get to the deals being made, and we could again go over all of them but we’ve done that as naseum for two years now. My main wtf gag was the first deadline deal. No need to regurgitate all the names (I liked Peraza, who they tossed out) but Matt Latos and Jim Johnson were the supposed to be the front line players and we had to pay Mike Morse for a while to get them. Yoiks. I get a bowel cramp just thinking of all that.
The point I was trying to make is simply this – go for it or rebuild. It’s my opinion they did, and continue to did not, do either. Granted, they got to the NLCS last year. I had that wrong. I thought Washington was better. Still do. But coming up short of a championship was predictable and in fact predicted. And we continue to look to the past. May not seem healthy or productive but I believe it can be both. You must look at the past to be have any chance at accurately predicting the future – if you don’t “doomed to repeat” is a likely outcome.
I admit I just don’t know about Friedman and Zaidi. Obviously both are smarter than me, but, what they’ve done hasn’t worked. A couple in here have burped up “well give us YOUR alternative”. I’ve done exactly that since October of ’14. Clearly I’m not on the same page as FAZ. So, we hide and watch. Maybe Hill does match his career 9 WAR total in his age 37-39 years. It’s possible. I don’t think so. But what do I know. I predicted a Clinton electoral landslide. I have crystal knees, but not crystal balls.
What’s next? Well, I think we better bolster the pen and line up another 6-7 starters. Looking at our starting staff, I think we’re gonna need a lot of pitching next year.
Badger,
I get it and I for the most part agree with you. Tearing down enables a quick accumulation of assets. I’ve been following the 76ers, and quite like their plan from afar.
Here’s my question though:
Could they (Friedman and Co.) have done that? Guggenheim just bought the team from McCourt and they and Colletti had driven it into the ground. Fan interest was very low, the “brand” really devalued. I wonder if the new owners thought that the situation was so dire (remember they had to make the local rights deal to start revitalizing revenue streams) that the community wouldn’t go for a complete rebuild after Ned and Frank had destroyed a lot of good will and infrastructure.
Guggenheim’s purchase was closed on May 1st of 2012. Friedman was hired in October of 2014. That’s 2 1/2 years later. I look at those two things as entirely separate events. The Trade, that so many moan about, was in my view done to send a message to the fan base to come back, that the McCourt era was over and we are going to win now. And they did win. They won right away. And the fans returned. But when Friedman was hired, it sent another message to the fans. At least that’s how I looked at it. And that message, that I got wrong, was that we were going to go West Coast Epstein. And frankly I was fine with that. But what we got was this high wire act of win now while rebuilding. Damn. These guys must be real geniuses because that didn’t compute with me. Anyhow, I’ve watched as the Norrises and Tepesches and the Latoses and Andersons and McCarthys have stumbled through the gate, but figured that’s cool because though we didn’t go for the arms that would have pushed us to the top, a stud reliever one year a stud starter the next, we were going to be ok because our system was #1. Then we weakened ourselves there by trading for Reddick and another pitcher that, like so many others we had stabled, was on the DL. Now our system dropped to #8 and we sign another old guy with injuery history to 3 and 48. WTF?
I don’t know. As Jack Crabbe so eloquently put it, this world just gets more ridiculouser with every passing year.
Maybe Hill does start near 100 games for us and pitches like Greg Maddox until he’s 39. I’ll say hallelujah if he does. I’ll say told you so if he doesn’t.
WAit.
You thought they would tear it all down when Friedman was hired? Hadn’t they just made the playoffs?
That would have been a very tough sell, no?
The system went to 8 because Seaver and Urias graduated, right?