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Do The Dodgers Have a Chance Against Jake Arrieta?

Dodgers High 5

Oh I think they do. It’s going to take a whole lot of hardcore believin’ to sell it though. The Dodger offense took the memorial holiday off by getting one-hit by several Chicago pitchers on Monday en route to a pathetic 2-0 loss. The Dodgers also lost out on another opportunity to gain ground on the Giants in the NL West who lost their game to Atlanta. Now the Dodgers must face an even bigger challenge in the second game of their four game series against the Cubs, Jake Arrieta.

The 30-year old right hander no-hit the Dodgers last season at Dodger Stadium and has not lost a game this season. He’s 9-0 with a 1.72 ERA to start the season. He’s put up Kershaw like numbers. The reigning Cy Young winner has posted a 0.897 WHIP and is looking to win 20 consecutive decisions. Over 68 innings he’s allowed 5.3 hits per nine and struck out 8.9. However he got hit hard in his last start. He allowed four earned runs on seven hits across five innings against the Cardinals. He picked up the win because the Cub’s offense scored 9 runs in their 9-8 win.

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Here’s the thing, Jake Arrieta is beatable. Oh yeah he certainly is. Looking back at his numbers I see that he lost six whole games last season. That’s right Arrieta lost six times in 2015 that bum. He lost 5 games in 2014. That means he’s been beaten 10 times over the last 2 years. Talk about pedestrian. The year before that, he lost 4 games as well. See how hittable he is?

*Update* Puig has been scratched due to hamstring soreness. Thompson will move to right and Crawford will start in left.

Dodgers Lineup @ Chicago

Utley 2B

Seager SS

Gonzalez 1B

Pederson CF

Thompson RF

Kendrick 3B

Grandal C

Crawford LF

Kazmir P

Scott Kazmir-4-3 vs. Jake Arrieta-9-0

Game Time – 5:05 PM – TV- SNLA-WGN

Despite the no-hitter last season, Arrieta’s career numbers against the Dodgers have looked lackluster. He is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA. He’s very tough to beat at home. In his career at Wrigley Field he is 21-7 with a 1.98 ERA. The current Dodgers are hitting .219 (14 for 64) and Arrieta has limited them to a .661 OPS against. Carl Crawford of all people has hit him the best. Crawford is hitting .357(5 for 14) with one home run against Arrieta. Adrian Gonzalez has also hit a home run.

Arrieta vs. Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez 19 18 5 1 0 1 2 1 3 .278 .316 .500 .816 0 0 0 0 0
Carl Crawford 16 14 5 2 0 1 3 2 3 .357 .438 .714 1.152 0 0 0 0 0
Chase Utley 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
A.J. Ellis 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 .000 .400 .000 .400 0 0 0 0 0
Howie Kendrick 5 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 .250 .400 .250 .650 0 0 0 0 0
Yasmani Grandal 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Enrique Hernandez 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Joc Pederson 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Yasiel Puig 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .667 .667 1.000 1.667 0 0 0 0 0
Alex Wood 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 1 0 0 0 0
Justin Turner 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Total 71 64 14 4 0 2 6 6 16 .219 .286 .375 .661 1 0 0 0 0


The Dodgers will give the ball to left hander Scott Kazmir. The veteran is coming off a dominating performance against the Reds in which he whiffed 12 and allowed one earned run on four hits over six frames to pick up his fourth win of the season. That lowered his ERA to 4.84 on the season. He has 60 strikeouts and 22 walks over 57.2 innings. Kazmir hasn’t faced the Cubs in years. In two career starts he is 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA versus the Cubs. He is 1-0 at Wrigley Field.

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Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler, and David Ross are the only Cubs to have ever faced Kazmir. Those current Cubs have had 3 hits in 26 plate appearances against Kazmir.

Kazmir vs. Cubs

Ben Zobrist 12 10 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 .200 .273 .200 .473 1 0 0 0 2
Dexter Fowler 10 9 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .111 .200 .111 .311 0 0 0 0 0
David Ross 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Total 26 23 3 0 0 0 3 2 4 .130 .200 .130 .330 1 0 0 0 2

For those of you that don’t have sportsnetla I think you can watch the games on the Cub’s WGN station. We have a rare midweek morning start time. You know what that means. Skip school, call in sick from work, play hooky. It’s time for Dodger baseball in the morning! Sorry guys, the game is actually on at 5:05 PM tonight. Thursday’s game is the midweek morning start time. Looks like I got my times mixed up.

Go Blue!

Scott Andes

Scott Andes: Longtime writer and Dodger fanatic

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Scott Andes
Scott Andes: Longtime writer and Dodger fanatic

90 thoughts on “Do The Dodgers Have a Chance Against Jake Arrieta?

  1. His career ERA is a pedestrian 3.5, and he lost a playoff game last year. Besides, the Dodgers can’t lose to a pitcher who wears pink shoes, can they?

  2. A chance? Of course!

    I think they could beat him…….. 1 out 4 times without Kershaw in the mound.

  3. Any pitcher is beatable. Koufax lost games, so did Cy Young, and Grover Alexander. The trick is making the guy work, and not letting him get you to get yourself out. Someone explain to me why Yasmani Grandal is even on the all star ballot.

    1. Are you referring to 2015 All-Star Yasmani Grandal?

      His numbers only rank behind 5 other NL catchers……Lucroy, Molina, Posey, David Ross and Willington Castillo. He’s middle of the road. If Molina or Posey goes down, he might be an ‘All-Star’ this year. 🙂

      1. An All Star that is hitting .188? Leads the league in passed balls. CS% of something less than most…..

        I’m getting my catchers glove out of the closet. I can still do this stuff.

        1. Chili, are you serious? AJ Ellis has a higher BA than your former all star, and calls a better game. Grandal was and is over rated from the get go. His production is so bad. He is lousy in the clutch, and my mother could run on the guy, and she is DEAD>. One of Fried Brains bad ideas gone really bad. Meanwhile another of his great acquisition’s, Kike Hernandez is also south of the Mendoza line. Bring up Barnes to back up AJ while Leon and Farmer continue to mature, Trade Grandal for a couple of bags of balls, and a pitching machine…

          1. A. J. Ellis .211, 1 HR, 8 RBI’s vs. ‘All-Star’ Grandal .188, 4 HR’s, 15 RBI’s…… Grandal gets the nod. 🙂

          1. Michael
            AJ and
            Grandal workthe together, everyday before a game, on how they are going to pitch the other team’s hitters. AJ is the one that trained Grandal, on how to work with the Dodger pitchers. And Grandal, calls the game, that AJ and him, went over before the game.

          2. I’m thinking Badger can do it without any of that sissified equipment….and Michael, you just need to get some of that good snake oil from the 50’s and place your glove in it for oh, 24-48 hours. Should be good to go after that.

          3. Mine’s a newer Mizuno. I still have my A2000 from about ’85. Might be older than that. It was my backup. Gave my new one to my kid. Who’s is now 33.

    1. And just who do you think it would take to get those guys? Teheran has not been all that reliable, but the Braves are not going to cut him and Vizcaino loose for nothing. It would probably take some of our top tier prospects for negotiations to even start. Lucroy? Well I like the guy, and he is much better the Grandal, but again, the Brewers are going to want top talent. Think of what you give up before you make your deal. How does it affect the future. If I am trading top talent, I want a true #2, and a solid 8th inning guy. Not somebody else’s cast offs

  4. Michael N.

    Do want to give you props regarding your contact on the inside and advising us that Urias was being sent down. You were spot on. For that I deem you worthy of keeping around! 🙂

  5. Lucky the giants lost to one of the worst teams. How many major league outfielders have similar production to our 66? I’m not sure he should be a starting player. He would pout on the bench. He has never been there before. It’s probably time for him to spend a couple of weeks at OKC. I think he is hurting the team right now. Remember when there was addition by subtraction last year? It’s time again.

  6. What’s the over/under?

    With Kazmir throwing his gopher ball at Wrigley, must be double digit, right? Imagine if the wind is blowing out! Oh baby!

    1. I was always sorry that Oisk’s real skills were gone by the time the Dodgers moved west. It would have been awesome to see a rotation of Podres, Drysdale, Erskine and Koufax. I have a 1959 and a 1957 Topps Erskine cards…2 of my prized cards…

  7. My answer to this question, Do Dodgers have a chance against Arrieta? Answer is no and we may see another no hitter today by him.

    1. Could be interesting……in his last outing the Cards softened him up….I think it’s been the most runs he had given up especially in that few of innings in a long time.

      But with most ‘top’ pitchers, they come back with a vengeance. That is what could make this an interesting game. I don’t see the righties doing any of the heavy lifting so it will be up to the lefties in the lineup….more precisely Utley, Seager and Gonzalez. If those 3 go hitless….

  8. I think they will have a better chance to hit Arrieta today, only if Roberts, doesn’t have a all leftie line up. That is because righties see Arrieta a lot better, and and because of this, they hit Arrieta better. Because Arrieta has reverse numbers, with lefties.

    But there are not to many players, that have hit Arrieta that well, in the last couple years. And the question is, did Crawford and these other Dodger hitters, hit Arrieta when he was pitching for Baltimore, or later, after Arrieta starting pitching better?

    Arrieta has
    mostly been pitching elite, only in the last couple of years. So most of those numbers that Scott posted, might not reflect how these Dodger players, will hit today.

    Because Arrieta, first started to turn the corner, in 2014. And about wins, wins are very deceiving, when we’re talking about pitcher’s wins. Because a pitcher’s wins, are not always about how well a pitcher, pitches.

    A pitcher needs good run support, to win most games. And even the best pitchers, that pitch well, won’t always get the win, if they have no run support.

    And when team gives there pitcher really good run support, a pitcher pitches more freely, and doesn’t have many stressful innings, and can stick to there game plan. And Arrieta has gotten more run support, then Kershaw this year.

    And we’re talking about baseball, where anything can happen. And like Michael said, any pitcher can be beat, even Koufax. Didn’t the Mets find a way, to get runs off Kershaw? Let’s all just wish for the best.

  9. My glove is a Del Crandall model. Second, Grandal has more HR’s and ribbies it is true, BUT AJ has a much better OBP, and he makes pitchers work. Grandal may call the game, but he is not nearly as good at it as AJ. Grandal is just plain worthless to this team unless his frippen bat awakens from it’s time in the deep freeze and starts producing. I also use glove oil, and the glove along with my 6 fingered Spaulding are in primo shape. Fried Brains has gotten the farm system a lot of talent, but the seed was planted BEFORE he got here. His acquisition’s for the big club have left a lot to be desired. His free agents are borderline terrible. The amount of money he threw at Anderson, McCarthy, and Kazmir, he could have gotten a true #2, which is what this team really lacks. His trades have been so-so. All he has left from the Kemp trade is Grandal…..and I am sorry, the guy has been a bust except for maybe the first 3 months last year. Since then, he has been what he has always been, Mediocre. Hernandez was the biggest plus from the Gordon trade, and he has fallen off the map…..Until this team fixes the rotation, the bullpen and gets some hitters back on track they are no better than 2nd place in the west and far from being a playoff team. The bench is a quagmire of non production.

  10. Interesting article on Dusty Baker and Dave Roberts as managers in Sports Illustrated:

    An excerpt: “Baker and Roberts are two of the more recent and fascinating hires in a world in which information has changed what defines a good manager. Do managers even matter any more? Are they nothing more than middle managers who carry out the doctrine of the front office?

    “Today, no manager has that kind of personal strategic imprint. The metrics define how teams play almost uniformly. Nobody bunts. Nobody steals. Nobody likes the intentional walk. The late innings are relay races of high-velocity throwers. It’s paint by numbers. But such front office hegemony has shifted the importance of the manager from strategic to personal. Baker and Roberts are proving that this shift back toward the importance of personality can work.”

    The point of the article is that managers don’t really matter except in the personal relationships that they develop with their players.

    I can’t agree, but the article does belie the argument made by some that Roberts has little to do with the Xs and Os. Nothing specific here though, although the author says this: “Like Baker—and really, all managers; veritable computer labs fill rooms adjacent to clubhouses in all parks—Roberts gets a trove of statistical information. Many of his 12 hours a day at the ballpark are spent reading and interpreting the information.

    ” Like most managers, he does not put a personal stamp on how his team plays. The Dodgers play percentage baseball. Roberts is there to deploy it with a personal touch.”

    If that’s what the Braintrust assumes, then I guess that the Dodgers should hire the nicest possible guy to manage and let call all of the shots. Mr. Rogers is dead – maybe Roberts is the next best thing.

    What happened to the Earl Weavers and Billy Martins? Tough guys who called the shots and got the most that they could out of players?

    There is more than 1 way to win a baseball game or to manage a team and the scorched earth policy only works for so long, but the manager’s only job to be a nice guy and let the GM call the shots?

    1. Didn’t read the article but the Nats are not a MONEYBALL team. They are willing to pay big money for FA’s. I do not see Dusty Baker taking orders from a GM. Sorry. And he does not manage by the book.

      Grouping Roberts and Baker together is a very tough sell. 2 completely different Managers with completely different histories. No one is teaching the old dog Baker new tricks.

      The personalities of Managers has been taken from the game with the adoption of the instant replay. No more ‘or hardly ever’ do you see a Manager (like Earl Williams, Billy Martin, Bobby Cox, Lou Piniella & Tommy Lasorda) storming the field.

      Won’t be long the GM’s will just text their line-ups to the umps. No reason for wasting time prior to the start….that would save 3 mins off of every game.

      And with all of the technology why wouldn’t a pitch that is foul tipped and hits the dirt prior to the catcher catching it not be reviewable? That’s one of 27 outs, why is that so insignificant?

  11. Talk about changing the strike zone is a waste of time. The umpires don’t call the one we have now correctly, what would be the point of changing it?

    1. The method of delivering information is what needs to be changed. According to 538, umps are accurate on 91.6% over the course of a season. I thought it was less, in fact, I read on Reddit it was more like….86%. I’ll find that and post it.

      Just saw this:

      Chance of winning – Cubs 69%, Dodgers 31%. Better than my 25%, but not by much.

    1. Called that one a week ago when the fact that his 20 game rehab was coming to an end. The guy has no position, and is more suited to the AL, maybe they can trade him..

  12. What happened to the Weaver’s and the Martin’s? One left. Bochy. I’m sure he is given the numbers, but if anyone does it their own way it’s him. But it’s got to work or you risk your job. I think the rookie Roberts got the job at least partly because he agreed to work “with” the front office.

    1. Your job is at risk even if you follow orders. The manager will still take the ax, no honor in GM offices.

      1. Exactly! When something doesn’t work that is sent down from above, they are not going to take the heat from the fans. These GM’s think they are the Great OZ but in reality most are just small, little pin heads hiding behind a……..curtain.

    2. And Bochy is probably the best manager in baseball – or maybe Maddon (of the Cubs). Maybe the wienies in the front office should let the managers manage?

  13. Utley, 2B
    Seager, SS
    Gonzalez, 1B
    Pederson, CF
    Thompson, LF
    Kendrick, 3B
    Puig, RF
    Grandal, C
    Kazmir, P

    1. Crawford is playing now, because Puig has a sore hamstring. I rather have Kike, in leftfield. The Dodgers were lucky that Cubs didn’t score, when the ball, was hit yo leftfield yesterday. Crawford is to much of a liability in leftfield, especially with his arm!

  14. Was just thinking how many Dodgers had their careers derailed by injury, and how would those guys healthy have affected the team. Pete Reiser, Tommy Davis, Bill Buckner, Karl Spooner, who actually threw harder than Koufax. Tommy D had won 2 batting titles, and then he shattered his ankle, He was never the same, but had a long career with about 9 teams. Billy Buck had a severe ankle injury which robbed him of speed and agility. Reiser never met a wall he did not think he was tougher than…..all those concussions took their toll, and Spooner burned out his arm back when surgery was not an option……Koufax, Spooner, Drysdale, Podres, Erskine…….wow……and just think if Orel had not hurt his arm, he might never have left the Dodgers…

      1. Yep, me too, and just think about Valentine. His career was derailed by an injury too. He was the centerpiece of that big trade with the Angels that brought Andy Messersmith to LA>

  15. Did everyone see that Urias is starting one of the games in Chicago? Bum it is your guy’s big day. Joc is batting fourth.

    1. Roberts finally strung 4 left side hitters in a row at the top of the lineup. With Turner starting the season slowly, I was trying to think of a way to keep Utley at leadoff and Seager and pederson in the top 4 spots. I have always liked Agon in the 5 hole. I would like to see more of this: Utley, Seager, Thompson, Pederson, Agon, Kendrick, Turner, Ellis.

      MJ, why do you refuse to share the lineup you want to see?

  16. Crawford decided not to run to first after that whiff, but then he also approached the catcher so that he could be tagged out. I’ve never seen that before. What the hell? Hustle and make him throw to first.

  17. Kazmir is pitching tough. Dodgers aren’t hitting Arietta, which is no surprise.

    Guerrero DFAd, Wood DLd, Urias called up – only the first of several roster moves to come. Van Slyke coming back – who leaves? Montas coming up? Who leaves?

    Ethier, McCarthy, Ryu, Anderson not coming back any time soon.

  18. Decided to skip the beginning of the game, to finish a western movie I recorded from DirecTV —

    Why? Leroy “Satchel” Paige was in the film. The film is titled “The Wonderful Country” with Robert Mitchum, Julie London, Gary Merrill.

    It was Satchel Paige’s only motion picture where he played a role. From 1959. He played Sgt. Tobe Sutton. Small role but nice to see him in a film.

    I once saw Satchel Paige pitch in the majors. 1965, he was with the K.C. A’s then, 1 game, 3 innings and he was somewhere around 58 years old.

    Now I am with the ball game — zip to zip. Dodgers moving to .500 ball again.

    Badger, now that you have your catcher’s glove out, oiled, and spikes ready — how many bounces will your throw make on its way to second trying to get a runner?

    1. I saw Satch on TV while he was with the A’s too. As a gimmick, they wheeled him on to the mound in a wheelchair! Then he got guys out. I think he was in his 50’s at least.

    2. Bounces? None. I don’t have the velocity, but accuracy still there. Looks like my bullpen session with the KU pitcher is on hold. He has a rotator cuff issue.

      Does the lighting at Wrigley look different?

      Pitches – Arrieta 80 through 6, Kazmir 90. Not bad. But our bullpen will be in it soon. Their’s won’t.

      Urias again huh? This time in Chicago? I’ll take the over on 2.2 IP.

      1. And of course Arrietta with a 26 pitch inning. I’ll be sure and mention things like I just did in the future – put the Badjinx on them.

    1. Scott
      Turner had a 92 fastball, right down the middle of the plate, and was behind on a 92 fastball.

    1. Joc gets a low strike right down the middle of the plate, and doesn’t swing. The next pitch was high, and out of the zone, and he swings.

      1. He was probably looking for a location on the first pitch and didn’t get it and the second pitch was up where he had a good look at it but it kept rising. His long fly ball to RF moved a runner to third that scored on another long fly ball to RF. That’s contributing. Why not mention that?

          1. A low pitch with sink will drop out of the strike zone and can induce a double play. It was a good pitch to avoid with a new count and runners on 1st and 2nd.

      1. He probably will now and could have in the 8th but it turned out better to let Crawford hit and let Kike’ pinch hit. More runs coming?

  19. The scouting reports on Dodger hitters are right on,our hitting coach needs to make the adjustment.

  20. Started streaming via sat at the top of the 5th avoiding some expense. While missing most of Kazmir’s outpitching Cubs ace I viewed the better part of it all! KEEP IT ROLLING boys! Great win!

  21. Urias, even though he is back, is still not going to go deep in games. They are going to monitor his innings. He might make a few starts, but my guess is he goes to the pen

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