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Percentage Baseball Mismatch: Brock Stewart vs. Jon Lester

Percentage baseball again! Wonderful! Everyone enjoy!

The Dodgers badly needed a win after they were almost no-hit by Matt Moore and the Giants and then blew a 4-3 lead in the top of the ninth to the Cubs, eventually losing in extras by a 6-4 score. The lead was down to one game in the NL West and the natives were getting restless. So the Dodgers gave the ball to Julio Urias on Saturday afternoon and all the 20-year old kid did was shutdown the best team in baseball for six frames. The Dodgers got 6 shutout innings from Urias, another home run from Corey Seager and they added two more runs in the third inning. Watching Urias’s development is quite satisfying as the youngster continues to get better.

Urias even helped out his own cause by singling in that third inning rally. It was all just enough for the Dodgers to sneak off with a 3-2 win. That coupled with what I am sure is an embarrassing loss for the Giants last night to the Braves means that the Dodger’s lead in the NL West is back to 2 games. The Dodgers will finish off the home stand and the series with the Cubs before they travel to Colorado to play a series at the much maligned Coors Field.

I am not sure who in their right mind thought this would be a great match-up for the Dodgers. Single-A ball right hander Brock Stewart will face left hander Jon Lester in today’s series finale. I have no idea why the Dodgers or anyone else thought that Stewart is a better option than Jose De Leon or anyone else. He’s been lit up like a Christmas tree in his previous disasters and he is bound to get clobbered again. On what planet could Stewart match-up against Lester?

Dodgers Lineup vs. Chicago

Kendrick LF

Seager SS

Turner 3B

Gonzalez 1B

Hernandez CF

Segedin RF

Grandal C

Culberson 2B

Stewart P

Jon Lester-14-4 vs. Brock Stewart-0-2

Game Time – 1:05 PM – TV- SNLA

This is Stewart’s third start and he has allowed 15 earned runs on 20 hits over 12 innings of work. That comes out to a wonderful 11.25 ERA. He’s given up 5 home runs and struck out 10 while allowing 15.0 hits per nine innings. Awesome. Keep playing those percentages Dodgers. It’s bound to work one day.

Lester is as expected one of the best pitchers in the sport. He is 14-4 with a 2.81 ERA in 25 starts. He has whiffed 154 and walked 43 across 154 innings. Perhaps the only weaknesses for Lester are his inability to hold runners on base, (which is well noted) and too many home runs.

He has allowed 19 dingers on the season. He faced the Dodgers once this season back on June 1st and unsurprisingly defeated them by allowing just one earned run on 4 hits in a complete game win. He struck out 10 in that game and the Dodgers could not hit him if their lives depended on it. Lester is 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA in 4 career starts against the Dodgers. Maybe I’ll eat some crow after the game? I would gladly do so for a Dodger win.

Lester vs. Dodgers

Howie Kendrick 39 38 7 4 0 0 5 1 8 .184 .205 .289 .495 0 0 0 0 0
Carlos Ruiz 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 .000 .125 .000 .125 0 0 0 1 1
Chase Utley 12 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
Enrique Hernandez 10 10 3 0 1 1 3 0 3 .300 .300 .800 1.100 0 0 0 0 0
Josh Reddick 9 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 .222 .222 .222 .444 0 0 0 0 0
Justin Turner 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000 .111 .000 .111 0 0 0 0 0
Adrian Gonzalez 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Joe Blanton 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Corey Seager 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0 0 0
Yasmani Grandal 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .667 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
Joc Pederson 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Total 115 111 16 5 1 1 8 3 31 .144 .174 .234 .408 0 0 0 1 1


So who are the hitters the Dodgers are putting out to face Lester? Of course it’s the all-righty lineup again. Inferior hitters are being played over superior hitters. Backups are played over regulars. That means Kike Hernandez in center field again with Joc Pederson on the bench, and Charlie Culberson at second base and Chase Utley not playing. Despite both men being unable to hit water if they fell out of a boat, the Dodgers feel by continuously playing them against tough left handers they’ll magically turn into Rod Carew. Keep playing those percentages Dodgers. One day it’s bound to work out.

Enjoy the massacre everyone!

Go Blue!

Scott Andes

Scott Andes: Longtime writer and Dodger fanatic

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Scott Andes
Scott Andes: Longtime writer and Dodger fanatic

61 thoughts on “Percentage Baseball Mismatch: Brock Stewart vs. Jon Lester

  1. I thought Chase would be playing in this game, after the first game.

    There is no way that Culberson should be having four at bats, against Lester, instead of Chase.

    And Chase gives a team more then just offense.

    And Chase not only proved that in the first game in this series, against a leftie, and he has done that all year.

  2. A little something about our new catcher, Carlos Ruiz:

    after those 2 pass balls/ wild pitches on Friday, yesterday, Ruiz made sure he was the bullpen catcher for all of the guys that came into the game, while they were warming up. He wanted to learn about the pitchers, so he caught all of them. He also caught Kersh’ bullpen session yesterday. That was his decision; shows a smart, good vet team guy.

    1. Roberts said Ruiz humbled himself to do that and that that was something AJ would do. Hey, I got 3 out of 4 consecutive words that were the same word.

    1. That is very odd. Puig is on Revocable Waivers, which means if he is claimed by a team that the Dodgers can’t/won’t work out a trade with, he would be pulled back. Sounds to me like they have worked out an acceptable trade with one team, but if some lower team claims him, he will be pulled back. Otherwise there is little reason for putting him on waivers at all.

        1. He can be traded but only to the team that claims him on Waivers. If a team they don’t want to get him, or they can’t work out a trade with, he would be withdrawn. I am sure one or several teams would claim him which is why I think a deal must be agreed to already to start him through the process. We should be ready to be angry for what he is traded for, you know FAZ…

      1. The Dodgers could also be negotiating with the team that claimed him and if they can’t work out a trade he would be pulled off waivers.

  3. Before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, the Dodgers discussed a deal with the Brewers that would have sent outfielder Ryan Braun to Los Angeles, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). While Braun has since cleared waivers, meaning the Dodgers (or another team) could make a trade for him this month, that would require overcoming potential complications. For instance, any team acquiring Braun would likely want the Brewers to eat a significant portion of the $76MM left on his contract, says Rosenthal, who adds that Milwaukee might be hesitant to assist a high-revenue club like the Dodgers in paying the 32-year-old.

  4. Scott,

    I have watched every pitch of Stewart’s MLB starts and many of his AAA starts. He is a student of the game and makes adjustments easily. Even though he has a high ERA he was generally not hit hard. I saw a lot in him that I liked… just like Urias. Urias is adjusting and so is Stewart.

    De Leon started late this year and was not ready when they needed him, so Stewart got the call. It would be felony-stupid to call De Leon up now and lose a year of control. He will be up Sept 1.

  5. Home plate ump wouldn’t know a strike if it crawled up his pant leg.

    I think most of us assumed De Leon would now be a September call up. I know I did. If he didn’t come up the last two weeks he ain’t coming up this week.

    The point Wondering made is about timing. And I am indeed prepared to be disappointed.

    1. Doesn’t De Leon have to be on the 40 to be called up even in September and the Dodgers have 4 about to be added in September already in Kershaw, Wood, Thompson, and Ethier.

    2. Bumsrap: “We interpret Badger differently. I heard him say that umpires can use technology too and note which catchers are getting strikes that are not strikes and stop giving them the closest calls and going back to technology to see how that worked out”.

      Badger: “You got it right Bum”.

      Well then, what do you expect? It’s that damn pitch framing again. The ump not wanting to look like a horses ass, is obviously relying on technology too much!!

  6. I think my man crush on Grant Dayton is slowly waning. He got quite lucky there. Meanwhile, Heyward has hit the ball hard all weekend against us. Perhaps he’s waking up; good sign for them.

    Then again, Kike hit the ball really hard himself earlier, but that just resulted in a double play, so it all balances out.

    0-0 in the 6th. Another playoff type game

  7. Bottom of the eighth, get a run so Kenly will have a chance to blow it. (I hope he doesn’t and I hope we get a run)

  8. Here’s what I know:

    The Cubs are allegedly the best team in baseball and the Dodgers have shown they can play right up there with them… without Kershaw, Ethier, Anderson, McCarthy, Thompson and Kazmir, who are on the DL.

    Not too shabby!

    1. Graphic on the TV coverage – Jansen leads all NL relievers in saves since the beginning of the 2012 season. Not too bad…

  9. Excellent week. 2 of 3 from both SF and Chicago

    Excellent week! And excellent job by the pen after giving Friday’s game away

    1. Bum
      I have liked Stewart since I saw him throw.

      He throws in a neat way, kind of like the old pitchers use to throw

      We might just be the team of fate
      And this being Vinny’s last year, just makes the fate look even more posible.

  10. A lot has happened this year. Player after player has went down but these guys just keep stepping up. Certainly, we know that next year Stewart and Urias deserve to be in the rotation. I think we will find out soon about De Leon, but I think he is in that class too.

    Ryu and Anderson are likely gone.

    No matter how well they do, I can’t see Hill and Norris back.

    McCarthy and Kazmir have trade value – the free agent market is thin and they could be easily moved.

    The Dodgers have Kershaw and Maeda to go with Urias, Stewart, De Leon and Buehler next year. Could we see three rookies in the rotation?

    1. Oaks is a back up for the rotation next year. Wood is in the picture as well especially if Buehler needs until June.

      1. I would trade Woods for the first deal available – he’s still young and under team control. With the number of starters prospects, I think we need another role player like Chavez. Someone who’s adequate but who has a rubber arm and can fill in the gaps on a regular basis. Woods, with his history and delivery, is probably not that guy.

    2. I don’t believe Buehler will be in the rotation until 2018 but I do believe McCarthy and maybe Kazmir have trade value.

  11. By Troy Provost-Heron and Todd Zolecki / | 6:45 PM ET + 4 COMMENTS
    NEW YORK — In his debut with the Phillies, catcher A.J. Ellis broke a seventh-inning tie with a two-run double, highlighting a four-run frame in a 5-1 victory over the Mets on Sunday at Citi Field.

    Through six innings, Mets right-hander Robert Gsellman’s first Major League start had gone swimmingly, allowing only one run on four hits while striking out five. Then came the seventh.

    The rookie allowed three straight singles to open the frame before exiting. With the game knotted up at 1, Ellis welcomed Hansel Robles out of the bullpen by drilling a two-run double over the head of left fielder Curtis Granderson,

    1. that’s awesome; good for AJ!

      too bad we won’t see him again this year so he can get the standing O he deserves

  12. Pitching at Dodgers Stadium during the day or late afternoon/evening is a major advantage. The Dodgers tend to play well because the percentages say it’s going to be s close, low scoring affair, so I think the vets pace themselves (and Roberts probably knows this well from having played as a Dodger). A few months ago I was for pitching the likes of Zach Lee on these days to boost their trade value. It’s a home field disadvantage-induced advantage, kind of like Lambeau Field in the winter.

    I’m not taking anything away from Stewart – I had been calling for him to replace McCarthy and Andersen in the rotation before those latter two went down. Stewart is a very nice prospect and need more reps, but he’s likely to get killed the next time out (so have patience with him).

    I also think either two of Chase De Jong, Stewart or Oaks, maybe all of them, will get traded within 12 months, with Buehler as a Septrmber call up in 2017. We also have that 20 year old Cuban coming up as well. It’ll get too crowded at the AAA level very soon.

  13. Whether its fate, Vinny’s last year, heart, or whatever, I give the credit to Dave Roberts

    He’s the mgr of the year hands down!

    1. Bobby
      You know I have been saying that for a while about Roberts.

      The Dodgers have one thing that the Cubs don’t have, and that is young starting pitching.

      They have young position players, but we have the pitching.

      Most of there starters are older.

  14. What is strange is that they waited until now to put Puig on trade waivers. I believe they’re trying to make something work with Milwaukee. Whether or not someone blocks them is a wait and see proposition.

    1. Even if they get blocked, the deal can still happen if the Dodgers take Braun and agree on a deal for PTBNL. I think someone will take Puig, so if he’s in it, he goes to Milwaukee after the season. Braun comes now… pending the Commissioner’s approval.

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